<p>美联储于 7 月 8 日发布了 6 月 16 日至 17 日 FOMC 货币政策会议的纪要。文件显示，美联储已完全转向中立的观望立场，通胀上行风险成为核心矛盾。</p>
<p>此次 FOMC 会议明确发出了信号，表明美联储已完全摆脱之前单边降息的倾向，进入了双向灵活的政策观察期。高于预期的通胀粘性及其广泛的范围是这一政策转变的核心原因，而就业和增长的韧性为政策提供了灵活调整的空间。</p>
<p>官员们确认通胀进一步上升，指出压力不再仅限于能源和关税等外部因素。相反，运输、机票和油价等广泛类别正在同步上涨，超核心服务通胀（不包括住房）几乎没有改善。短期内，预计随着霍尔木兹海峡的运输恢复和边际关税效应减弱，通胀将逐渐下降。</p>
<p>然而，供应链中断的持续时间可能超出预期，持续的人工智能基础设施发展继续推高计算能力和电力成本，这两者都可能延长通胀维持在高位的时间。</p>
<p>劳动力市场依然高度韧性，失业率稳定在自然利率水平，非农就业人数与劳动力增长相匹配，显著缓解了市场对就业恶化的担忧。目前的工资增长与 2% 的通胀目标一致，这意味着劳动力市场并不是通胀压力的来源。地缘政治不确定性和人工智能的长期替代效应仍然是就业方面唯一的潜在风险因素。</p>
<p>经济增长的核心驱动力高度集中在人工智能投资上。企业的人工智能资本支出持续超出预期，没有放缓的迹象，既是当前增长的核心引擎，也是提升潜在产出水平的长期催化剂。整体金融状况仍然相对宽松，股价上涨支持高收入群体的消费；然而，低收入群体的压力持续加大，使他们在维持支出方面高度依赖信贷，并对必需品价格上涨的影响更加脆弱。中东冲突是增长前景最大的不确定来源。</p>
<p>在货币政策方面，所有成员在此次会议上维持利率不变，但内部分歧开始显现。一小部分官员认为已经有加息的理由，但选择暂时不采取行动；对政策立场的评估也出现分歧，一些官员认为当前政策并不紧缩，而少数人则认为略显限制。</p>
<p>总体而言，官员们对政策路径的评估仍然依赖数据，这表明如果通胀平稳下降，他们可能会维持或降息；如果通胀持续高企，则可能进一步加息。官员们对年末利率路径的看法各持己见，没有统一的宽松倾向。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，与会者审议了美联储理事 Warsh 提出的终止 “前瞻指引” 的提案，并减少对未来利率决策的评论。纪要中提到，“大多数与会者表示，他们认为缩短声明有其优势”，而 “多数与会者” 支持删除暗示美联储下一步政策行动可能是降息的语言。美联储在 6 月批准的替代方案完全取消了对利率的指引，符合 Warsh 希望避免对利率决策做出承诺的总体愿望。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

<p>美联储 6 月 FOMC 会议纪要显示，随着通胀上行风险成为核心冲突，政策立场转向中立的观望态度。尽管就业保持韧性，人工智能推动经济增长，但顽固的超级核心服务通胀结束了之前单边降息的倾向。官员们对未来政策意见不一；一些人认为需要加息，而另一些人则倾向于降息，评估仍然依赖于数据。美联储还决定从声明中删除前瞻性指引的措辞</p>

<p>The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June 16-17 FOMC monetary policy meeting on July 8. The document indicates that the Fed has completely shifted to a neutral, wait-and-see stance, with upside inflation risks becoming the core contradiction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储于 7 月 8 日发布了 6 月 16 日至 17 日 FOMC 货币政策会议的纪要。文件显示，美联储已完全转向中立的观望立场，通胀上行风险成为核心矛盾。</p>
</div><p>This FOMC meeting sent a clear signal that the Fed has completely moved away from its previous unilateral rate-cut bias and entered a two-way, flexible policy observation period. Higher-than-expected inflation stickiness and its broadening scope are the core reasons for this policy shift, while the resilience of employment and growth provides the policy with room for flexible adjustments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次 FOMC 会议明确发出了信号，表明美联储已完全摆脱之前单边降息的倾向，进入了双向灵活的政策观察期。高于预期的通胀粘性及其广泛的范围是这一政策转变的核心原因，而就业和增长的韧性为政策提供了灵活调整的空间。</p>
</div><p>Officials confirmed further increases in inflation, noting that pressures are no longer confined to exogenous factors like energy and tariffs. Instead, broad categories such as transportation, airfares, and oil prices are rising in tandem, with supercore service inflation (excluding housing) showing virtually no improvement. In the short term, inflation is expected to decline gradually as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovers and marginal tariff effects fade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官员们确认通胀进一步上升，指出压力不再仅限于能源和关税等外部因素。相反，运输、机票和油价等广泛类别正在同步上涨，超核心服务通胀（不包括住房）几乎没有改善。短期内，预计随着霍尔木兹海峡的运输恢复和边际关税效应减弱，通胀将逐渐下降。</p>
</div><p>However, the duration of supply chain disruptions could exceed expectations, and ongoing AI infrastructure development continues to push up computing power and electricity costs, both of which could prolong the period inflation remains elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，供应链中断的持续时间可能超出预期，持续的人工智能基础设施发展继续推高计算能力和电力成本，这两者都可能延长通胀维持在高位的时间。</p>
</div><p>The labor market remains highly resilient, with the unemployment rate stable at the natural rate of interest, and nonfarm payrolls matching labor force growth, significantly easing previous market concerns over worsening employment. Current wage growth is consistent with the 2% inflation target, meaning the labor market is not the source of inflationary pressure. Geopolitical uncertainty and the long-term substitution effect of AI remain the only potential risk factors on the employment side.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>劳动力市场依然高度韧性，失业率稳定在自然利率水平，非农就业人数与劳动力增长相匹配，显著缓解了市场对就业恶化的担忧。目前的工资增长与 2% 的通胀目标一致，这意味着劳动力市场并不是通胀压力的来源。地缘政治不确定性和人工智能的长期替代效应仍然是就业方面唯一的潜在风险因素。</p>
</div><p>The core driver of economic growth is highly concentrated in AI investment. Corporate AI capital expenditures continue to beat expectations with no signs of slowing down, serving as both the core engine of current growth and a long-term catalyst to raise potential output levels. Overall financial conditions remain somewhat loose, with rising stock prices supporting consumption among high-income groups; however, pressure on low-income groups continues to intensify, making them highly dependent on credit to sustain spending and more vulnerable to the impact of rising prices for essential goods. The conflict in the Middle East is the largest source of uncertainty for the growth outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济增长的核心驱动力高度集中在人工智能投资上。企业的人工智能资本支出持续超出预期，没有放缓的迹象，既是当前增长的核心引擎，也是提升潜在产出水平的长期催化剂。整体金融状况仍然相对宽松，股价上涨支持高收入群体的消费；然而，低收入群体的压力持续加大，使他们在维持支出方面高度依赖信贷，并对必需品价格上涨的影响更加脆弱。中东冲突是增长前景最大的不确定来源。</p>
</div><p>On monetary policy, all members held rates steady at this meeting, but internal divisions have begun to emerge. A minority of officials believed there was already a case for a rate hike but chose to hold off for now; assessments of the policy stance also diverged, with some officials viewing current policy as not tight, and a minority seeing it as slightly restrictive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在货币政策方面，所有成员在此次会议上维持利率不变，但内部分歧开始显现。一小部分官员认为已经有加息的理由，但选择暂时不采取行动；对政策立场的评估也出现分歧，一些官员认为当前政策并不紧缩，而少数人则认为略显限制。</p>
</div><p>Overall, officials' assessment of the policy path remains data-dependent, suggesting they could hold or cut rates if inflation falls smoothly, or hike further if inflation remains persistently high. Officials are split fifty-fifty on the interest rate path for the end of the year, with no unified easing bias remaining.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，官员们对政策路径的评估仍然依赖数据，这表明如果通胀平稳下降，他们可能会维持或降息；如果通胀持续高企，则可能进一步加息。官员们对年末利率路径的看法各持己见，没有统一的宽松倾向。</p>
</div><p>Notably, participants reviewed a proposal by Fed Governor Warsh to terminate &#34;forward guidance&#34; and reduce commentary on future interest rate decisions in the statement. &#34;Most participants noted that they saw advantages to shortening the statement,&#34; the minutes said, while &#34;most participants&#34; supported removing language suggesting that the Fed's next policy move would likely be a rate cut. The alternative approved by the Fed in June completely removed guidance on interest rates, in line with Warsh's general desire to avoid making commitments regarding rate decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，与会者审议了美联储理事 Warsh 提出的终止 “前瞻指引” 的提案，并减少对未来利率决策的评论。纪要中提到，“大多数与会者表示，他们认为缩短声明有其优势”，而 “多数与会者” 支持删除暗示美联储下一步政策行动可能是降息的语言。美联储在 6 月批准的替代方案完全取消了对利率的指引，符合 Warsh 希望避免对利率决策做出承诺的总体愿望。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

FOMC 纪要：美联储转向中性观望立场，少数官员认为需要加息，上行通胀风险成为核心矛盾