<p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
<p>策略师表示，美元近期的强势是否持续可能取决于油价和美联储的动向。</p>
<p>截至 6 月 30 日的一周，美元的整体多头头寸上升至至少十年来的最高水平。</p>
<p>投资者最近纷纷押注美元走强，受到美元近期上升趋势的鼓舞。</p>
<p>然而，这些押注是否能获利，将取决于周三油价的上涨是否能够持续。油价上涨将推动通胀，进而提高投资者对美联储加息以抑制价格压力的预期。</p>
<p>较高的美国利率通常被视为对美元的利好因素。</p>
<p>根据 FactSet 的数据，ICE 美元指数 DXY 在周三下午持平，但今年仍上涨 2.7%。该指数在 6 月底达到了超过一年来的最高水平，尽管此后已削减了部分涨幅。</p>
<p>投机者在期货市场上已经建立了看涨美元的头寸，持续了数周——早在特朗普总统周三表示他认为与伊朗的敌对行动的临时协议 “结束” 之前。稍后，在新闻发布会上，特朗普否认战争重新开始，称最近的美国空袭只是对伊朗侵略的回应。</p>
<p>截至 6 月 30 日的一周，美元的整体净多头头寸连续第八周上升，达到 398 亿美元，为至少 10 年来的最大值，根据 Saxo Bank 对 CFTC 数据的分析。</p>
<p>尽管投资者积极增加看涨押注，但美元仍远低于 2022 年底的多年来最高点。从理论上讲，这可能为美元继续上涨留出了充足的空间。</p>
<p>分析师表示，油价 (CL.1) 的最新上涨为美元提供了另一个利好因素。较高的原油价格最近帮助推动了国债收益率的上升，因为投资者认为美联储在今年晚些时候加息的可能性越来越大。根据美国银行资产管理集团资本市场研究负责人 William Merz 的说法，投资者在寻求地缘政治风险的避风港时，美元也可能受益。</p>
<p>周三发布的美联储 6 月会议纪要似乎确认，许多顶级央行官员仍准备在未来加息以抑制通胀。</p>
<p>鉴于美元在全球金融体系中的中心地位，货币价值的波动可能会对其他市场产生溢出效应。疲软的美元通常被视为对外国股票的利好，而强势美元可能会对在国外赚取大部分收入的美国跨国公司的盈利造成压力。</p>
<p>由于投机性美元多头头寸已经显得紧张，Thomas Urano，Sage Advisory 的共同首席投资官表示，即使是对加息预期的小幅变化也可能引发大幅反转。</p>
<p>他补充道，如果由于油价下跌或劳动力市场开始疲软，加息预期减弱，投资者可能会看到美元在 2026 年的涨幅开始以更有意义的方式逆转。</p>
<p>-Frances Yue</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>07-08-26 1658ET</p>

USOI

2 倍做空彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

美国布伦特原油期货基金

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

<p>截至 6 月 30 日，美元多头头寸达到十年来的最高点 398 亿美元，这一增长受到油价上涨和地缘政治紧张局势推动的美联储加息预期的影响。尽管美元仍低于 2022 年的峰值，但策略师警告称，过度的投机头寸可能会导致剧烈反转，尤其是在通胀预期减弱或劳动力市场疲软的情况下</p>

<p>By Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Frances Yue</p>
</div><p>Whether the greenback's recent strength persists will likely depend on what happens with oil prices and the Fed, strategists say</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>策略师表示，美元近期的强势是否持续可能取决于油价和美联储的动向。</p>
</div><p>Aggregate dollar longs rose to the highest level in at least a decade for the week ended June 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 6 月 30 日的一周，美元的整体多头头寸上升至至少十年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Investors have recently crowded into bets on a stronger U.S. dollar, encouraged by the greenback's recent upward trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者最近纷纷押注美元走强，受到美元近期上升趋势的鼓舞。</p>
</div><p>Whether those bets pay off, however, will depend on whether Wednesday's jump in oil prices holds. Higher oil prices would boost inflation, and with it investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to try and quell price pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这些押注是否能获利，将取决于周三油价的上涨是否能够持续。油价上涨将推动通胀，进而提高投资者对美联储加息以抑制价格压力的预期。</p>
</div><p>Higher U.S. rates are generally seen as a tailwind for the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较高的美国利率通常被视为对美元的利好因素。</p>
</div><p>The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, which measures the greenback against a basket of rivals, was flat Wednesday afternoon, but remained up 2.7% this year, according to FactSet data. The index hit its strongest level in more than a year in late June, although it has since pared those gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 FactSet 的数据，ICE 美元指数 DXY 在周三下午持平，但今年仍上涨 2.7%。该指数在 6 月底达到了超过一年来的最高水平，尽管此后已削减了部分涨幅。</p>
</div><p>Speculators have been building up bullish dollar bets in the futures market for weeks - long before President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he believed an interim deal to end hostilities with Iran was &#34;over.&#34; Later, during a press conference, Trump denied that the war was back on, saying that the recent U.S. airstrikes were simply a response to Iranian aggression.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投机者在期货市场上已经建立了看涨美元的头寸，持续了数周——早在特朗普总统周三表示他认为与伊朗的敌对行动的临时协议 “结束” 之前。稍后，在新闻发布会上，特朗普否认战争重新开始，称最近的美国空袭只是对伊朗侵略的回应。</p>
</div><p>Aggregate net long positions in the dollar rose for an eighth straight week in the week ended June 30, reaching $39.8 billion, the largest in at least 10 years, according to Saxo Bank's analysis of CFTC data published Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 6 月 30 日的一周，美元的整体净多头头寸连续第八周上升，达到 398 亿美元，为至少 10 年来的最大值，根据 Saxo Bank 对 CFTC 数据的分析。</p>
</div><p>While investors have aggressively ramped up bullish bets, the buck remains well below its most recent multi-decade peak from late 2022. In theory, that could leave plenty of room for the greenback to continue higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管投资者积极增加看涨押注，但美元仍远低于 2022 年底的多年来最高点。从理论上讲，这可能为美元继续上涨留出了充足的空间。</p>
</div><p>The latest uptick in oil prices(CL.1) provides yet another tailwind for the dollar, analysts said. Higher crude prices have recently helped push Treasury yields higher as investors see a Fed rate hike later this year as increasingly likely. The dollar may also have benefited as investors looked for a haven from geopolitical risks, according to William Merz, head of capital-markets research at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，油价 (CL.1) 的最新上涨为美元提供了另一个利好因素。较高的原油价格最近帮助推动了国债收益率的上升，因为投资者认为美联储在今年晚些时候加息的可能性越来越大。根据美国银行资产管理集团资本市场研究负责人 William Merz 的说法，投资者在寻求地缘政治风险的避风港时，美元也可能受益。</p>
</div><p>The minutes from the Fed's June meeting, released Wednesday, appeared to affirm that many top central bankers remain ready to raise rates in the future to tamp down inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三发布的美联储 6 月会议纪要似乎确认，许多顶级央行官员仍准备在未来加息以抑制通胀。</p>
</div><p>Given the dollar's centrality within the global financial system, fluctuations in the currency's value are likely to have spillover effects in other markets. A weak buck is generally viewed as bullish for foreign stocks, while a stronger dollar could weigh on the earnings of U.S.-based multinational companies that earn much of their money abroad.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于美元在全球金融体系中的中心地位，货币价值的波动可能会对其他市场产生溢出效应。疲软的美元通常被视为对外国股票的利好，而强势美元可能会对在国外赚取大部分收入的美国跨国公司的盈利造成压力。</p>
</div><p>With speculative dollar longs already looking stretched, even a small shift in rate-hike expectations could spur a substantial reversal, according to Thomas Urano, co-chief investment officer at Sage Advisory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于投机性美元多头头寸已经显得紧张，Thomas Urano，Sage Advisory 的共同首席投资官表示，即使是对加息预期的小幅变化也可能引发大幅反转。</p>
</div><p>If rate-hike expectations fade because oil prices move lower, or the labor market starts to weaken, investors could see the buck's 2026 gains start to reverse in a more meaningful way, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充道，如果由于油价下跌或劳动力市场开始疲软，加息预期减弱，投资者可能会看到美元在 2026 年的涨幅开始以更有意义的方式逆转。</p>
</div><p>-Frances Yue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Frances Yue</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>07-08-26 1658ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>07-08-26 1658ET</p>
</div>

交易员们对美元的看涨情绪达到了十年来的最高点。美元如何能够继续上涨