---
title: "大摩看空美股：盈利压力下，美股在下一个财报季才会触底"
description: "企业盈利下调将成为美股新利空。"
type: "news"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/62982030.md"
published_at: "2022-06-06T13:51:18.000Z"
---

# 大摩看空美股：盈利压力下，美股在下一个财报季才会触底

> 企业盈利下调将成为美股新利空。

大摩空头 Michael Wilson 警告称，企业盈利下调将成为新的利空，美股要到二季报业绩期才会见底。

Michael Wilson 在周一最新的研报中表示，在没有出现像经济衰退这样明显冲击的情况下，美股企业下调盈利预测的速度一般很慢。这意味着股市可能会徘徊在当前水平，直到第二季财报季到来，届时企业盈利下调将导致市场重新开启下跌并真正见底。

Wilson 表示，目前标普 500 指数成份股中权重最大的 5% 股票，股价中值仍较疫情前高出 40%，指数整体则高出 17%：

> 这可能给股市带来下行风险，在脱离当前熊市前，这类股票可能是市场下跌的 “最后一只靴子”。

作为华尔街知名空头之一，Wilson 成功预测本轮美股下跌行情。其目前依然维持之前判断，即标普 500 指数到 8 月中下旬将接近 3400 点，这较指数目前点位还有 17% 的下跌空间。

Wilson认为至少要等到标普 500 跌到 3500 点以下，才能触发 “美联储看跌期权” 行权（即逼迫美联储救市时的点位）。这背后主要是由于通胀的持续抬升导致美联储面临比过去救市时更加复杂的局面。抗通胀更高的优先级别使得美联储短期内不会由 “由鹰转鸽”。

Wilson 不是华尔街最为悲观的策略分析师。美银分析师 Michael Hartnett此前分析认为，美股今年将面临通胀、利率、衰退的三轮冲击。美股熊市要持续到今年 10 月，届时标普 500 将跌至 3000 点。

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