---
title: "Q2 Earnings Preview: Cherish Meituan below 120"
type: "Topics"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/33285266.md"
description: "First, two points to note: First, all my articles are merely records of my own investments, tracking, and learning, and should not be taken as investment advice. Please exercise caution. Second, the performance for this quarter and the next has become harder to predict. My forward-looking statements have been relatively accurate in the past, but starting this quarter, they may become less reliable. Please bear with me. The topics of this article include: Q2 performance outlook; competition landscape and prospects of instant retail; progress in new businesses; and valuation analysis. 1. Meituan's Q2 Performance Outlook Starting from Q1 2025, Meituan will no longer disclose the total order volume for instant retail, nor will it provide specific order volume information for food delivery and flash sales..."
datetime: "2025-08-25T01:39:59.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/33285266.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/33285266.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/33285266.md)
author: "[走马财经](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/profiles/2493942.md)"
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/33285266.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/33285266.md)


# Q2 Earnings Preview: Cherish Meituan below 120

First, let me clarify two points:

First, all my articles are just records of my own investment, tracking, and learning, **not investment advice**, please be cautious.

Second, the performance of this quarter and the next quarter has become more difficult to predict. My previous forecasts were relatively accurate, **but starting from this quarter, they may become less accurate**, please understand.

The topics of this article include:

_Q2 performance forecast;_

_Instant retail competition landscape and outlook;_

_New business progress;_

_Valuation analysis._

**1\. Meituan Q2 Performance Forecast**

![图片](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0917dbd2c4be6bf0001fb2fea2ad003c?x-oss-process=style/lg)

Starting from Q1 2025, Meituan no longer discloses the total quarterly order volume for instant retail, nor does it disclose specific information on food delivery and flash sales order volumes, so all are estimated values (highlighted).

It is estimated that the average daily order volume for food delivery in Q2 is 62.92 million orders, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and the average daily order volume for flash sales is estimated at 11.84 million orders, a year-on-year increase of 32%. The ratio of flash sales to food delivery average daily order volume has reached 18.8%, a historical high. The average daily order volume for instant retail is estimated at 74.76 million orders, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%.

The food delivery business continues to grow steadily but is initially impacted by fierce industry competition, with the average order price dropping by about 4% to approximately 46 yuan (pre-subsidy price, not the user price). Revenue growth is slower than order volume growth, with quarterly GTV around 263.5 billion, revenue around 38 billion, and average profit per order down by about 33%, mainly due to increased user subsidies, rider subsidies, and marketing expenses, along with a decrease in average order price. The quarterly operating profit for food delivery is approximately 6.3 billion.

Flash sales benefited from the Q2 618 promotion, with faster growth in high-ticket categories. The average order price is expected to reach around 85 yuan, with quarterly GTV around 91.6 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of over 40% based on GTV. Quarterly revenue is expected to be around 11.2 billion, with operating profit around 500 million. The GTV-based profit margin has significantly decreased by nearly 50% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to increased marketing subsidies, not due to forced impacts.

![图片](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/6d66520e3f4de3d16963ed8f57bde9a3?x-oss-process=style/lg)

This quarter, the GTV for in-store hotel and travel is expected to be 284 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28%. The growth rate for in-store is faster, while the growth rate for hotel and travel is slower. The growth rate in lower-tier markets is extremely fast, with the growth rate of discount products such as special group purchases and live broadcasts exceeding expectations, resulting in a decrease in average order price. The order volume growth rate is faster than the GTV growth rate, and the commission growth rate is still significantly higher than the advertising growth rate. The revenue growth rate is far lower than the GTV growth rate and order volume growth rate.

The monetization rate for in-store hotel and travel is expected to further decline to around 6%, with quarterly revenue of approximately 17.04 billion and an operating profit margin slightly declining to around 30%, with operating profit of 5.1 billion.

Other businesses such as transportation ticketing and homestay are included in the core local commerce, with estimated revenue of around 1.3 billion and operating profit of around 600 million.

![图片](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b11c2519a473b03045cd3ac2f370fced?x-oss-process=style/lg)

Based on the above business operation data forecasts, core local commerce revenue is expected to be 67.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. New business revenue is expected to be 26.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 21.1%. Meituan adjusted its preferred business on June 23, impacting new business revenue by about 3-5 billion. Otherwise, the new business revenue scale for this quarter could reach around 26.6 billion. This adjustment also brings about a 200 million profit increase for new business in Q2, although it may be offset by the impact of Keeta's acceleration. Total quarterly revenue is expected to be 93.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%.

![图片](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/022edef75bff724c50006a513310c7d8?x-oss-process=style/lg)

The core local commerce operating profit for this quarter is expected to be around 12.5 billion, with an operating profit margin of about 18.6%, a year-on-year decline of about 17.9%. New business operating loss is about 2.5 billion, with an operating profit margin of about -9.5%, and operating cash flow is expected to be 11.8 billion.

![图片](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/88f38b7e34d950aa118568606636c8fe?x-oss-process=style/lg)

Q2 is usually a quarter with better gross margins, benefiting from weather and scale factors. Gross margin is expected to improve quarter-on-quarter, but the increase in rider subsidies has a negative impact, so the quarter-on-quarter improvement is not significant.

Marketing expenses are expected to increase significantly, but benefiting from operating leverage, the proportion of revenue remains stable. R&D and administrative expenses remain stable, with total operating profit expected to be 10.12 billion, a profit margin of 10.8%, and EBITA profit of about 11.5 billion, a profit margin of 12.3%, both significantly declining year-on-year.

**2\. Instant Retail Competition Landscape and Outlook**

This quarter, Meituan's financial data is relatively difficult to predict, mainly due to the sudden changes in industry competition.

From JD.com's financial report, we can see that it burned about 13.5 billion in cash in Q2, the first full quarter of its investment in food delivery.

From Meituan's Q2 financial forecast, we can see that the negative impact of the food delivery war on core local commerce's profit is about 5 billion, meaning that without fierce competition, the core local commerce's Q2 operating profit should have been around 17.5 billion.

**It is estimated that Alibaba's local life business also burned extra cash at this level**, with more burning in Q3. Of course, Meituan's profit loss is also more in Q3, while **JD.com's food delivery loss in Q3 may significantly narrow, but at the cost of basically exiting the mainstream competition in the food delivery industry**.

Recently, I have seen JD.com riders sharing information that in some cities, JD.com riders are being notified to switch to delivering parcels, indicating that the order volume model for the food delivery business is no longer working. If this is the case for full-time riders, it is even more so for part-time riders.

This is still the peak season in summer, and when September comes, the order volume in the food delivery industry will start to decline, with Q4 being lower than Q3 overall. **Winter is coming, and only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked**.

So, the conclusion is already very clear, **the food delivery business is easy to enter, but the threshold for running a long-term model is extremely high**.

Now, we can focus our attention on Meituan and Taobao Flash Sales.

First, I think **Alibaba is a respectable opponent**, **its competitive strategy is impeccable and above commercial ethics**.

In fact, every summer in the past, Ele.me would also launch a "summer campaign," but this year Taobao joined in with a bigger move.

Secondly, the idea of "overnight change" is untenable, **food delivery is a long-term game market that requires a protracted battle**.

Moreover, from the current situation, Taobao is indeed on the rise.

A few days ago, I conducted a sample survey among readers, and Taobao (including Ele.me/Alipay channels) has indeed seen a significant increase in its common share, but Meituan still holds a dominant position.

![图片](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/cd1b2e2d824d4f589f184885c6a5259e?x-oss-process=style/lg)

In the past, Meituan and Ele.me were roughly in a 7/3 split, and after JD.com entered, Ele.me's second position was once in jeopardy. Now it has not only stabilized its second position but also significantly increased its share compared to the past (30%).

It should be noted that there may be some bias in my readers, who are more inclined towards Meituan investors, so Taobao's common share may be higher than the result shows (38.5%).

At the same time, as far as I know, Meituan internally values the GTV share of formal dining the most. If we exclude categories with high elasticity such as tea and afternoon tea, the impact on Meituan is smaller than we see.

In March this year, I have already published my outlook for the instant retail industry:

> In the field of instant retail, Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com are the three core players, all of which are all-round players in supply, warehousing, distribution, platform, and self-operation, and have made heavy bets.
> 
> However, if we further stratify, I would say Meituan and Alibaba are T0-level players, with no obvious weaknesses.
> 
> Overall, Meituan is still in a more advantageous position because its advantages are ready-made, while Alibaba's advantages have not yet been realized. Another advantage of Meituan is that it was born and grew locally, and its instant retail user mindset is also stronger.
> 
> Horseman, WeChat Official Account: Horseman Finance[Trillion Instant Retail: Who Will Dominate the Future](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/032XBg_7uL193yaG2dbnTQ)

Meituan Flash Sales is less impacted because it has actually fired more bullets in this area. According to GTV statistics, its share in the 3P (excluding self-operation) flash sales market is expected to be around 70%.

Therefore, I am currently inclined to believe that for Meituan and Taobao, **a more likely and mutually acceptable outcome** is:

Meituan ultimately stabilizes its industry position and profit, appropriately ceding a small portion of its share, while Taobao gains some new share and acquires the user habit and mindset of one-stop shopping for e-commerce, local life, food delivery, and flash sales, becoming a comprehensive all-round super consumer app with almost no weaknesses. However, becoming the dominant player in the food delivery and flash sales fields is really too difficult.

In this way, **everyone gets what they want most**.

As for Douyin and Pinduoduo, I think they may have a shallow involvement in food delivery and are likely to get involved in instant retail, but the probability of entering the first group is not high. Of course, when they announce their entry, Meituan may also shake in the capital market, which is hard to avoid.

**3\. New Business Progress**

Meituan Preferred was adjusted on June 23, retaining some advantageous cities in Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, etc., to continue exploration. This adjustment has limited impact on Q2 because there are only 7 days left in the quarter, with an estimated negative impact on revenue of 3-5 billion and a positive impact on profit of about 200 million.

Xiaoxiang continued to advance normally in Q2, with discount retail always in preparation. The financial impact will be seen in Q4, and the early impact is almost negligible.

The real highlight is the progress of Keeta, which is currently advancing smoothly in the Middle East, having expanded to 20 core cities in Saudi Arabia and started its journey in Qatar in Q3.

Taking the Saudi market as an example, the total annual GTV scale in this region is currently about 9 billion USD (2025 data), with an average daily order volume of about 1 million orders and an average order price of about 25 USD. Meituan's current average daily order volume is about 120,000 orders and is continuously growing, with a GTV market share close to 10% (slightly lower than the order volume share). The annual GTV is expected to reach about 1.2 billion USD. If we follow the common monetization rate of 20-30% in this region, the annual revenue scale is expected to reach about 300 million USD, which is about 2.2 billion yuan.

In the Hong Kong market, Keeta's current estimated order volume share is already above 50%, with an average daily order volume of about 150,000, an average order price of 120 HKD, which is about 110 yuan, and an annual GTV of about 6 billion yuan. Based on a 20% monetization rate, the revenue can be calculated to be about 1.2 billion yuan.

The Qatar market just started in the second half of the year, and Brazil will enter at the earliest by the end of Q4, so **the annual revenue increment brought by Keeta is expected to be in the range of 3-4 billion**.

**4\. Please Cherish Meituan Below 120**

Meituan's food delivery and in-store hotel and travel can be directly valued using mature business DCF models. Flash sales and Xiaoxiang can be valued using expected cash flow with a 15% compound growth over ten years. Other domestic businesses are not highly valued and can be estimated casually. Although Keeta is growing rapidly and has a promising future, the most appropriate way is still to give it a 0 valuation.

The annualized order volume for food delivery is expected to be about 24 billion orders, maintaining a net profit of 1 yuan per order—considering relatively fierce market competition and social security investment. Assuming this business maintains a 4% perpetual growth, in fact, even if the order volume does not grow, it can easily achieve a 4% profit growth based on scale effects, so this is a conservative forecast. Due to Meituan's scale and business barriers, we give it an 8% discount rate (for such a business, a normal discount rate can be 7%, 8% is still a conservative strategy), and the DCF valuation for this part can be calculated to be about 624 billion.

In-store hotel and travel are less stable than food delivery. We expect its profit this year to be about 20 billion, maintaining a 3% perpetual growth in the future, and using a 10% discount rate, the corresponding DCF valuation is 294.3 billion.

The flash sales and Xiaoxiang combination is based on GTV, referring to the UE model of food delivery, that is, a 2% GTV Margin—in fact, flash sales and Xiaoxiang involve physical retail, and the upper limit of advertising monetization rate is higher, theoretically having a higher profit margin. Here, we still conservatively estimate, maintaining the same profit margin level as food delivery, with a 15% compound growth over ten years, then a 4% perpetual growth, and a 9% discount rate, the DCF valuation is 422.5 billion.

The reasonable valuation of the above three businesses is 1.34 trillion. If a negative valuation is given due to the continuous loss risk of Keeta, other domestic businesses such as bicycles, charging, SaaS, and Kuailv are already or will be profitable, and they can offset each other without any problem.

1.34 trillion corresponds to 239 HKD, which is basically twice the 120 HKD.

**No matter whether you use DCF model valuation, PE valuation, PS valuation, or estimate at least another food delivery for physical flash sales, the result will not be lower than this**. But the actual stock price will keep changing due to emotions, competition stages, macro environment, interest rate changes, and many other factors.

**The market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. Smart investors will operate against the trend, being fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful**.

Many people will focus on the past 60 or so. Indeed, if the Hong Kong stock market index significantly retreats, Meituan's current price is likely to follow the downward trend. It is not to say that 120 is the bottom, but its possibility of continuing to underperform the index is already minimal.

The current 120 is roughly equivalent to the 70 or so more than a year ago. You should know that in the past year, the Hong Kong stock market index has risen by nearly 50%, and technology stocks have actually risen even more.

So, please cherish Meituan below 120. It may stay below 120 for a while, but it won't stay there forever. $MEITUAN(03690.HK)

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## 评论 (13)

- **Vince1024 · 2025-08-28T11:56:29.000Z**: Cherish Meituan, the King of Losses
- **我也不知道买啥 · 2025-08-27T10:03:20.000Z · 👍 1**: The results are out, game over
- **saprisorn · 2025-08-27T08:57:13.000Z · 👍 1**: Year-on-year decline of 98%, this is really shocking and devastating
- **虚空道长 · 2025-08-27T06:09:27.000Z**: As someone in the same industry, the reasoning logic is basically in line with reality and trends.
- **zoey_lin · 2025-08-26T14:32:46.000Z**: What books are recommended for this valuation calculation method? I want to learn systematically. It seems value investing is really needed 🥹
- **chwy · 2025-08-26T01:39:40.000Z**: Meituan will recover soon
- **六子 · 2025-08-25T06:57:12.000Z**: Long-term bullish
- **青橙术士 · 2025-08-25T05:56:39.000Z · 👍 4**: Shorting Meituan made me money
- **新用户_xJ5TC · 2025-08-25T03:42:29.000Z**: So is now a good time to buy at 122?
  - **fantian** (2025-08-25T23:48:37.000Z): If you ask this question, don't buy it. What doesn't belong to you will eventually be taken back. You can't hold on when it rises, and you can't sleep when it falls.
- **观众 · 2025-08-25T02:25:17.000Z**: Hope it turns out as you said
- **新用户_204LdJ我 · 2025-08-25T02:11:34.000Z · 👍 1**: First post