--- title: "鲍威尔转向，美股信仰会固若金汤吗？" type: "Topics" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/33523103.md" description: "大家好，我是海豚君！财报季终于快要尘埃落定，久违的策略周报重新与大家见面！ 期间 Jackson Hole 会议上鲍威尔的利息政策惊天逆转，美股也冲高回落。现在的关键问题是，进入 9 月份了，美股还能拉出新高吗？一、美联储政策惊天逆转？表面看起来 Jackson Hole 会议上，一直偏鹰的鲍威尔似乎突然转鸽，但海豚君更为关注的鲍威尔态度转向时给出的两个关键判断：1）经过一段时间观察..." datetime: "2025-09-01T11:50:30.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/33523103.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/33523103.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/33523103.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/dolphin.md)" --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/33523103.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/33523103.md) # 鲍威尔转向，美股信仰会固若金汤吗？ Hello everyone, I am Dolphin Research! The earnings season is finally coming to an end, and the long-awaited strategy weekly report is back! During this period, Powell's interest rate policy at the Jackson Hole meeting made a dramatic reversal, and the U.S. stock market also surged and then retreated. The key question now is, as we enter September, can the U.S. stock market reach new highs? **I. Federal Reserve Policy Dramatic Reversal?** On the surface, it seems that Powell, who has always been hawkish, suddenly turned dovish at the Jackson Hole meeting. However, Dolphin Research is more concerned about the two key judgments Powell made when shifting his stance: 1) After a period of observation, it is believed that the inflation risk of tariffs is more of a one-time shock; 2) After the Labor Department's bottomless downward revision of the new jobs in May and June (vs. wage growth from 2024 to 2025 almost unchanged, not stepping down at all), Powell has a step to cut interest rates. He stated in his speech that employment risks are rising, and under the circumstances of rising employment risks, the "wage-inflation" spiral is unlikely to truly transmit; Therefore, in balancing the dual mandate, although the core PCE price index is marginally upward at present, considering employment risks, **it may be necessary to adjust the current "restrictive" policy to a more "neutral" state.** ![Chart, bar chart AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5dc05e56ccb98ea1f2bb971cc96f17ff?x-oss-process=style/lg) In the mid-August strategy weekly report [“U.S. Stocks: A Feast Towards a Bubble, Is It a Carnival or a Runaway?”](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/32814615?channel=t32814615&invite-code=032064&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN), Dolphin Research mentioned that the bottomless downward revision of employment data, the clarification of tariff issues, and the downward risk all seem to be deliberately "feeding" the Federal Reserve's decision-making system, allowing the current Fed to turn dovish gracefully and smoothly, while maintaining the Fed's credibility and dignity, and shifting the real interest rate policy towards what Trump wants. And at Jackson Hole, Powell clearly **"took the step when given"**, and expressed an attitude not based on seeing clear unemployment issues or economic problems, but rather a preference for "preemptive" measures to maximize employment when facing potential employment outlook issues. This is completely different from the previous expression in press conferences that there would be no "preemptive" rate cuts. The result of this expression is that the market naturally believes that there is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, and this rate cut is a "preventive" one, not a recessionary rate cut based on a significant rise in unemployment. The result of Powell's attitude shift is a sharp drop in the dollar, a slight decrease in long-term bond yields, and the U.S. stock market, having already traded on rate cuts for some time, rose and then fell after Powell's shift, with the actual increase not being significant. This also aligns with what Dolphin Research previously stated in the strategy weekly report—"Although U.S. stocks have entered bubble valuation levels, the market adjustment brought by the Fed's accelerated rate cuts still provides an opportunity to dance in the bubble. And if U.S. stocks do not adjust, the risk-reward of chasing new highs is not high." **II. U.S. Treasury Draining: The Second Half of TGA Rebuilding Relies on Bank Reserve Balances?** As of the week ending August 27, after five weeks of rebuilding, the U.S. Treasury's TGA account balance has risen from $350 billion to nearly $600 billion, with about half the way to go to reach the $850 billion target by the end of September. In the past five weeks of TGA account rebuilding, it is very clear that the main consumption is the bank deposit reserves and reverse repo balances that Dolphin Research mentioned before, but the overall progress is relatively moderate and slow. However, it can also be seen that after a month of rebuilding, although the reverse repo rate is still relatively stable, the reverse repo balance has been almost completely consumed from a proportion perspective, and the current reverse repo proportion has returned to the pre-pandemic state. If the bank reserve balance was basically untouched in the first half, the second half of the TGA rebuilding may mainly rely on consuming bank reserve balances. In fact, last week's TGA rebound was basically supplemented entirely by bank reserve balances. When mainly using bank reserves to supplement, the inverse relationship between the short-term stock market vs. the reduction in bank reserve balances may be relatively obvious. Therefore, even if the TGA rebuilding under the overall Bespoke operation is relatively moderate and friendly, the market still cannot rule out the short-term liquidity risks brought about by this process. ![Graphical user interface, text, application, email AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/4279c427feaed856c1b9303a55ceb616?x-oss-process=style/lg) **III. U.S. Stocks: Long-term "Fortress of Faith"?** Of course, if we overcome short-term risks such as overvaluation and liquidity shocks, Powell's shift almost seals the expectation for the U.S. economy next year—loose monetary policy + growth-promoting fiscal policy + private enterprise AI infrastructure investment cycle, it seems destined that the economic environment in 2026 will not be very bad. Even entering the post-pandemic era, the U.S. fiscal seems to have become addicted to fiscal stimulus: although tariff revenue has increased month by month since Trump took office, the fiscal deficit so far this year is closer to the high deficit trajectory of 2023 and 2024. Moreover, a mutually corroborating point is that in the sources of U.S. household income, transfer income in 2025 (which had surged during the pandemic helicopter money period) once again significantly exceeded the growth of total income and the main income—employee salary income, with the growth rate standing above 10% again. And if 2026 is to further increase tax cuts and raise deficit levels (the current market consensus for 2025 is about $1.9 trillion, and the expectation for 2026 is between $2.2-2.3 trillion), the economic downside risk in 2026 is still relatively small. Then 2026 corresponds to monetary easing + fiscal stimulus + AI investment, policy pro-cyclical + industry pro-cyclical, dual drivers ensure the outlook for 2026. In other words, if this TGA rebuilding can bring market adjustments, it may instead provide a buying opportunity at a low point. **IV. Portfolio Returns** Last week, Dolphin Research's virtual portfolio Alpha Dolphin did not adjust its positions. It rose by 0.8% during the week, outperforming the benchmark market indices—Hang Seng Tech (+0.5%), MSCI China (-0.6%), and S&P 500 (-0.1%), but underperformed the CSI 300 (+2.7%). Since the portfolio began testing (March 25, 2022) until last weekend, the absolute return of the portfolio is 101%, with an excess return of 88.6% compared to MSCI China. From the perspective of asset net value, Dolphin Research's initial virtual asset of $100 million has exceeded $204 million as of last weekend. **V. Individual Stock Profit and Loss Contribution** Last week, Dolphin Research's virtual portfolio Alpha Dolphin outperformed the market index mainly because companies in the portfolio such as Trip.com, Alibaba, and Nongfu Spring released earnings with good results or guidance, leading to high increases. In addition, after the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut, the rise in gold also contributed significantly to the gold ETF. The main explanations for individual stock price changes are as follows: **VI. Asset Portfolio Distribution** The Alpha Dolphin virtual portfolio holds a total of 18 individual stocks and equity ETFs, with 7 standard allocations and the rest underweight. Assets outside of equities are mainly distributed in gold, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. dollar cash, with the current ratio between equity assets and defensive assets such as gold/U.S. Treasuries/cash being approximately 54:46. As of last weekend, the Alpha Dolphin asset allocation distribution and equity asset holding weights are as follows: ![Chart, pie chart AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/381fbf94e4df705e47bb86cbf36e254a?x-oss-process=style/lg) **VII. Key Events This Week** This week, the earnings reports of Chinese and American assets are all entering the final stage—there are still two heavyweight companies in semiconductors and AI, with Broadcom representing ASICs and Salesforce representing AI in software applications. Previously, due to Marvell's disappointing performance and Nvidia not providing truly additional information, Broadcom is the only major semiconductor company left in the second quarter, especially since Google's strong capital expenditure and upward revision of capital expenditure expectations. As Google's core supply chain company for TPUs, Broadcom is of great significance this week. In addition, among Chinese assets, Nio, which has been narrating a turnaround in adversity, is also releasing its earnings at the last moment. After admitting "no price cuts, no market competition" with determination, can Li Bin provide new marginal incremental information at the conference call to further boost the currently recovering stock price? Those interested in these issues and companies can continue to follow the first-line interpretations brought by Dolphin Research during the earnings season. The key focus areas of these companies are summarized by Dolphin Research as follows: **Risk Disclosure and Statement of This Article:**[**Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure**](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) For recent articles on Dolphin Research's portfolio weekly report, please refer to: [“A Fierce Toss Like a Tiger, Trump Ultimately Can't Escape "Inflation to Debt"?”](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/31527953?channel=t31527953&invite-code=276530&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CNhttps://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/31527953?channel=t31527953&invite-code=276530&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN) [“U.S. Stocks Fall, Hong Kong Stocks Are Full: How Far Can the Structural Revaluation of Hong Kong Stocks Go?”](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/30753266?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&channel=t30753266&invite-code=276530&locale=zh-CN&community_badge=1&profile_following_followers_activities=1) [“This Is the Most Down-to-Earth, Dolphin Investment Portfolio Has Started”](https://longbridgeapp.com/topics/2764818?channel=t2764818&invite-code=032064) ### 相关股票 - [SPDR S&P 500 (SPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SPY.US.md) - [Hang Seng TECH Index (STECH.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/STECH.HK.md) - [Vanguard Russell 2000 (VTWO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VTWO.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/QQQ.US.md) ## 评论 (8) - **Emjuju · 2025-09-02T10:13:36.000Z**: Is now a good time to buy for bottom fishing? - **新用户_wQ1T36 · 2025-09-01T14:47:53.000Z**: The link to the last article is not working - **Dolphin Research** (2025-09-02T01:50:23.000Z): I checked and it seems fine? Try switching to a different phone/computer? - **得得得** (2025-09-02T09:24:11.000Z): The phone really can't be opened. - **文龙41950287 · 2025-09-01T13:02:05.000Z**: Meeting - **得得得 · 2025-09-01T12:31:18.000Z**: What does Dolphin Research think about the next trend of US stocks? - **Dolphin Research** (2025-09-02T08:58:49.000Z): There's no problem from next year's perspective, but short-term performance has passed, and there are no obvious marginal benefits for the targets. Let's see if Broadcom exceeds expectations first.