--- title: "US stock live trading-20251214: Only gold is helping to recover losses" type: "Topics" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/37123062.md" description: "Summary: The S&P 500 index fell 0.63% this week, while my actual portfolio value rose 0.13%. Within 2025, the S&P 500 index has risen 16.08%, and my actual portfolio value has risen 29.35% (starting value at the beginning of the year was 1.60, this week's value is 2.07). Trading: Bought 9.5% of Bloom Energy (BE). Holdings: NVDA 12.5%, SNDK 10.5%, NEM 31.6%, GLD 24.1%, BE 9.0%..." datetime: "2025-12-14T04:20:36.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/37123062.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/37123062.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/37123062.md) author: "[京城Z先生](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/profiles/9198235.md)" --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/37123062.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/37123062.md) # US stock live trading-20251214: Only gold is helping to recover losses **Overview:** This week, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.63%, while my actual portfolio net value rose by 0.13%. In 2025, the S&P 500 index has risen by 16.08%, and my actual portfolio net value has risen by 29.35% (starting net value was 1.60, this week's net value is 2.07). ![Image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/a3b3a1ab2b69d0605c3c91eb5d28b481?x-oss-process=style/lg) **Trades:** Bought 9.5% of Bloom Energy (BE)   **Holdings:** NVDA 12.5%, SNDK 10.5%, NEM 31.6%, GLD 24.1%, BE 9.0%, Cash/U.S. Bonds 12.4%. Rounded figures, and generally do not record mini-positions below 1% and short-term speculative operations. **Review:** First, the trades. As I mentioned last week, I was planning to "get into some power, or add storage on the right side," and finally chose Bloom Energy for power, while simultaneously buying Sungrow Power Supply in the A-share market. According to McKinsey and BloomEnergy's forecasts, the U.S. will add 55GW of new data centers from 2025 to 2030 to meet the growing data demands of AI. Due to the need to wait for transmission line upgrades and the lack of power generation capacity, U.S. data centers typically take years to gain grid access, resulting in significant opportunity costs. As a result, AI data centers are increasingly opting for on-site power solutions.   BE is one of the few real tech power infrastructure stocks in the U.S. market. Despite already being at capacity, it still has a large backlog of orders, and the company is already expanding production capacity rather than just making PPT promises. That's why I included this company in my valuation table earlier. Like the storage sector, it's highly volatile, highly elastic, and in a high-growth phase. I've been waiting for a good opportunity to buy, and this week's decent pullback provided that, so I took a position.   Although I waited conservatively for the pullback, Friday's sudden tech sector crash led to an exaggerated drop in volatile sectors like storage and power. So, I got trapped right after buying and could only shrug it off to ease the awkwardness hiahia... \--- This flash crash was somewhat sudden, but it's largely related to two things. First, Oracle and Broadcom's earnings reports fell short of expectations to varying degrees. AI expectations had been priced in quite fully, so any minor hiccup caused the herd mentality to loosen. Second, although the Fed cut rates moderately, its tone remained hawkish. Tech stocks are the most sensitive to interest rates and often react with a "if it's not dovish, we'll die" drama. However, considering that Fed officials' recent statements have become increasingly unreliable—even flip-flopping within 24 hours—and rumors that the successor has already been handpicked by Trump, the long-term outlook still calls for continued liquidity, and big liquidity at that. So, at least for now, I think tech stocks are still worth buying on dips. As for when to sell, it depends. Those with actual output can be held long-term, while PPT companies will depend on who's the last to believe. \--- Individual Stocks: 1\. Tech: NVDA/GOOG   This week, I also considered buying these two because they fell to short-term support levels. From the valuation table, although they've risen a lot this year, their overall multiples are still moderate, with average odds but decent win rates. After weighing the options, I personally chose BE, which has extremely high odds and a decent win rate. After undergoing a narrative reconstruction in the short term, Google has accumulated a large number of profit-takers. Recently, it's mostly been consolidating sideways, with little meaningful new information released. It'll likely stay this way until the next earnings report in Q1. As for Nvidia, which is under pressure, there's a flood of news. First, there's the H200 China ban lift, but it seems Trump's team wants to split the pie, and the East isn't particularly keen on playing along, so the positive impact may be extremely limited, even negligible. Another piece of news is that Nvidia plans to hold a data center power shortage summit next week, inviting startups focused on solving data center power issues. This once again sounds the alarm for the U.S. AI narrative—without power, nothing works. This summit could spawn a few Nvidia juniors, which often outperform Nvidia itself during uptrends, so keep an eye out.   2\. Storage: SNDK/MU   The storage sector has been extremely volatile recently, with almost daily big swings, making for a terrible holding experience. The main reason is simply that it's risen too much this year, with many profit-takers and loose chips, requiring enough washouts to prepare for the next major uptrend. The main reason I'm optimistic about this sector's future is that the market is genuinely short on storage. I've never heard of an industry with severe shortages and significant price hikes simultaneously seeing its stocks fall. A key upcoming event is Micron Technology MU's earnings report after the close on December 17. Institutions expect Q1 2026 revenue of $128.01 billion, up 46.98% YoY. Given Broadcom's earnings feedback, MU may need to exceed market estimates to keep lifting the storage sector. Reports suggest the storage chip shortage will last until late 2027 or even 2028, so we should remain relatively optimistic for the next year. 3\. Power: BE/GE If BE's volatility is too much, you can also look into GE.   In a filing released after the close on Tuesday, GE Vernova announced **a comprehensive upward revision of its performance guidance for the coming years.** For fiscal 2025, revenue guidance is $36-37 billion, and free cash flow is raised from $3-3.5 billion to $3.5-4 billion. For fiscal 2026, free cash flow will further increase to $4.5-5 billion. Additionally, the company raised its fiscal 2028 revenue guidance from $45 billion to $52 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margins also increasing from 14% to 22%. Thanks to the explosive expansion of AI data centers, U.S. power equipment leader GE Vernova hit a record high during Wednesday's session after announcing higher multi-year guidance, doubling its dividend, and increasing its share buyback authorization.  GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik disclosed at an investor day that, with large data center construction driving up power demand, the company expects to sign contracts for 80GW of combined-cycle gas turbines by year-end. **The company's gas turbines are already sold out through 2028, with only 10% of 2029 capacity remaining.**  Facing the expected blowout performance, at least six brokerages raised their target prices for GE Vernova, with JPMorgan giving the highest at $1,000.   4\. Gold: GLD/NEM   As my top overweight sector (over 50% of my portfolio) and this week's market darling, gold hit another all-time high, the sole hero keeping my account in the green despite tech stocks taking a beating. Goldman Sachs believes that if households or institutions can meaningfully increase their gold holdings as a risk-diversification tool, especially amid global macroeconomic uncertainty—including concerns about fiscal outlooks—these inflows **could "significantly push up" prices in the small-scale gold market.** The bank predicts gold will reach $4,900/oz by the end of 2026 but adds that if private-sector buying exceeds the central bank-dominated demand seen in recent years, this forecast would face "significant upside risks." Gold performed exceptionally in 2025, setting over 50 all-time highs and gaining more than 60% for the year. This strong performance was driven by multiple factors, including heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and sustained upward momentum in gold prices. Investors and central banks have been increasing gold holdings to seek diversification and stability. Of course, every new high in gold may be followed by a period of pullback and consolidation, so if you haven't allocated yet, the risk of short-term flag-planting is still high. 5\. Crypto: BITB/BMNR I've given up on this sector this year. I was up big at one point (over 30%), but didn't sell at the peak and only cleared my position after the trend broke, ending up with nothing. Now, after weeks of consolidation, Bitcoin still hasn't reached my sell point or fallen to my preset buy point. Dragging this out, the cycle should be ending soon. Historically speaking, it should first crash hard and then start a new cycle, testing everyone's faith. Abandoning digital gold entirely and reallocating to physical gold might be my wisest trade these past two months. 6\. Next Week's Plan Only 12% cash left. First, watch Micron's earnings. Leaning toward not easily adding to any sector.   \--- Finally, the valuation table: ![Image](https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/a049dd6b94be810de084f085f48f66ad?x-oss-process=style/lg) **Notes (Must Read):** 1\. The buy points, fair prices, and sell points in the table above are calculated by me using specific methods. There is no uniform standard, and they are not absolutely correct or guaranteed to be achieved. They are only meant to help me roughly judge current prices. 2\. If a point has two values, the lower one is the floor and the higher one is the ceiling. Which one to use depends on my subjective preference and understanding of the company—no uniform standard. 3\. Blue and red highlights are warnings to myself that a stock is near a buy/sell zone and needs close attention, but it doesn't mean I will definitely buy or sell. 4\. The numbers in the table will be adjusted periodically based on my dynamic assessment of company fundamentals. Do not use them as long-term references, and they are not standard answers. 5\. The above table is my personal trading record, made for my own reference. It cannot guide your trades. Don't ask me whether you should buy something—the answer is no. 6\. Friends holding related positions are welcome to discuss with me in the comments, point out my mistakes, and learn together to make money. $Bloom Energy(BE.US) $Bloom Energy(BE.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Bloom Energy(BE.US) $Bloom Energy(BE.US) ### 相关股票 - [NVIDIA (NVDA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [SPDR S&P 500 (SPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SPY.US.md) - [Newmont (NEM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NEM.US.md) - [C3.AI (AI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/AI.US.md) - [Micron Tech (MU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/MU.US.md) - [Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BITB.US.md) - [Bloom Energy (BE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BE.US.md) - [SPDR Gold Shares (GLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GLD.US.md) - [Sandisk (SNDK.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SNDK.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF (NVD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NVD.US.md) - [GE Aerospace (GE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GE.US.md) - [FL2CSOPGOLD (07299.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/07299.HK.md) - [Sungrow Power Supply (300274.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/300274.CN.md) - [Broadcom (AVGO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/AVGO.US.md) - [Alphabet - C (GOOG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [Oracle (ORCL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ORCL.US.md) - [Alphabet (GOOGL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [XL2CSOPNVDA (07788.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/07788.HK.md) ## 评论 (39) - **Miss7&MissJ · 2025-12-15T07:27:15.000Z**: Me too - **富叉叉 · 2025-12-15T06:03:50.000Z**: Learned, Z's logic is good - **围裙姐姐happy · 2025-12-15T02:03:04.000Z · 👍 1**: Written in great detail, the Excel table is also very refined, truly professionalizing investment research 👍 I've been waiting for BE for a long time, considering to buy, but haven't acted yet because I'm stuck in BMNR 😂 But recently I'm thinking whether to 🈹 - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-15T02:24:25.000Z): all cash is equal - **围裙姐姐happy** (2025-12-15T07:04:39.000Z): How to say? - **無對 · 2025-12-14T13:20:35.000Z**: Mr. Z's strategy can weather bull and bear markets, ordinary people won't lose money buying gold at any time - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-15T02:23:29.000Z): I won't hold onto any stocks indefinitely and will switch to other thriving sectors at any time - **流萤和昔涟的交易员 · 2025-12-14T11:03:01.000Z · 👍 1**: be 周四进的，周五硬生生吃了 10% - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-14T11:14:32.000Z): If it weren't for NEM giving me a big boost this week, my account would have looked pretty bad at Friday's close😅 - **财财财 · 2025-12-14T10:52:50.000Z · 👍 1**: Mr. Z, the P/E ratios of BE and GEV are both very high, aren't you afraid of this?😂 - **财财财** (2025-12-14T10:54:05.000Z): Can I buy AEP and nuclear ETF? - **财财财** (2025-12-14T10:56:26.000Z): Also CEG - **财财财** (2025-12-14T11:33:38.000Z): Haha, I just compared be and ceg using gpt. Relatively speaking, ceg seems safer with greater actual power generation and much less volatility than be. Mr. Z, I want to be relatively more stable. Is c - **保持学习 · 2025-12-14T10:49:54.000Z · 👍 2**: Bought Zijin and it rose a lot, fishing again in Mr. Z's fish basket! - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-14T11:11:40.000Z): You're killing it, only picking the ones in my basket that are soaring😅👍 - **阳光哇 · 2025-12-14T08:02:48.000Z**: Posted a bit early today haha - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-14T08:24:12.000Z): No fixed schedule, write whenever you're free, just go with the flow😅 - **长崎素世的交易员 · 2025-12-14T06:36:09.000Z · 👍 1**: Sir, I have studied the US power grid $Xcel Energy(XEL.US), which mentioned in Q3 that the capex for 2026-2030 is 60 billion, with over 15 billion used in power transmission, bringing 7% growth. My conclusion is that it's not cheap, and the expected annualized return may also underperform the Nasdaq - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-14T06:39:26.000Z): Master of both China and the US! - **退场 · 2025-12-14T06:32:55.000Z · 👍 1**: Long-term bullish on Micron, but the earnings report feels risky. They always release positive news in advance. Last time before the earnings report, the stock rose too much and then fell after the report was released. In just three months, it has risen another 45%, already pricing in the positive e - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-14T06:40:06.000Z): Expectations were set too high, and now it's falling ahead of time. Hopefully, it's just a case of early digestion next week😅 - **退场** (2025-12-14T06:49:23.000Z): On Friday, it was more of a decline in the same sector. Judging from the earnings report alone, the probability of a drop is higher than a rise. Anyway, I don’t dare to bet on earnings reports anymore - **一发入魂 · 2025-12-14T05:34:06.000Z · 👍 1**: All in gold, I'm going to buy it at all major gold stores now!!! - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-14T05:43:01.000Z): Playing with memes, huh?😅 - **一发入魂** (2025-12-14T05:55:47.000Z): Got caught by z, hahaha - **跟顾神反着买 · 2025-12-14T05:13:55.000Z**: Buy electricity, charge ahead - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-14T05:22:25.000Z): You must do your own research, don't just go all in recklessly - **跟顾神反着买** (2025-12-14T13:44:43.000Z): Definitely wouldn't dare to mess around haha - **煎饼小狗 · 2025-12-14T04:30:47.000Z · 👍 1**: I just researched GE this week😂Wanted to buy but the valuation seems too high, though the performance matches the price - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-14T04:33:43.000Z): During a boom cycle, things are usually not particularly cheap unless the market is blind 😅. The main thing is to see if it's overpriced, how much potential is left, and then grit your teeth and go f - **方糖甲 · 2025-12-14T04:28:02.000Z · 👍 3**: Learned, thanks - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-14T04:32:26.000Z): Learning together, many stock ideas are also referenced from other investors 😄 - **AKAGI · 2025-12-14T04:27:32.000Z · 👍 1**: Can you share your thoughts on the AI power supply SEI? It seems to have a steady stream of orders from Musk, but the current capital expenditure is quite high and cash flow is tight. - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-14T04:31:51.000Z): I don't know much about this company. Can you analyze whether it's an already implemented order or one filled with if-else conditions? - **AKAGI** (2025-12-14T04:41:47.000Z): Okay, thank you very much🙏 - **每天吃大肉 · 2025-12-14T04:26:23.000Z**: Google is expected to remain flat for a long time - **京城Z先生** (2025-12-14T04:30:35.000Z): Wait for the next earnings report, it's not far away