---
title: "A bitter wait for a destined difficult pattern - Review from January 12 to 15"
type: "Topics"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/37841910.md"
description: "The advantage of trading is that you have choices. You can choose to suddenly leave the bustling city when you have time and visit friends at Cyberport; this is also why I have always loved investing. The Hang Seng Index is still hovering at high levels for the time being. Compared to the resistance levels in October and November last time, this time it has shown strong resilience. It did not fall at the key resistance level of 27,200 but instead showed a sustained upward trend..."
datetime: "2026-01-15T12:13:29.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/37841910.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/37841910.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/37841910.md)
author: "[孫子的末代傳人](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/profiles/5724230.md)"
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/37841910.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/37841910.md)


# A bitter wait for a destined difficult pattern - Review from January 12 to 15

The benefit of trading is the ability to choose—to suddenly have the time to escape the bustling city and visit friends at Cyberport. This is also why I've always loved investing.

The Hang Seng Index continues to hover at high levels. Compared to the resistance levels in October and November, this time it has shown remarkable resilience. Instead of falling at the key resistance of 27,200, it has maintained an upward trend. Keep a close eye on the timing of a true breakout $UB#HSI RC2810X(68817.HK) $BI-HSI @EC2605B(23128.HK), with a defensive position at 26,500. Now, watch closely whether the daily chart forms a so-called "power to resistance" pattern.

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Today, the most discussed stocks are $Trip.com(TCOM.US) $TRIP.COM-S(9961.HK): The company is facing an antitrust investigation, which could have a very negative impact on the stock price under this sentiment. However, given the excessive short-term decline, chart observations and experience suggest a minor rebound might occur before further declines. Note that this drop has breached the weekly uptrend line.

$Alibaba(BABA.US) $BABA-W(9988.HK), as previously mentioned, broke through the key level of 152 and continued upward. Today, news of millions of AI connections across the Alibaba ecosystem caused a pullback. A consolidation of one to two days is expected, and as long as it doesn't fall below 159, there's still a high chance of another upward move $BIALIBA@EC2604A(20188.HK), with a defensive position at 159. Alibaba-related stocks saw speculative activity yesterday, with $ALI HEALTH(241.HK) surging over 18% before pulling back. A sideways narrowing phase is expected above 6.9, with potential for another upward move after consolidation.

$XIAOMI-W(1810.HK) remains in a dull phase—this is a classic "chicken rib" market. Even if it doesn't fall below 35, no clear bottom signal has emerged. The chip sector is stronger than expected, with $HUA HONG SEMI(1347.HK) preparing to challenge the $SMIC(981.HK).

Other tech stocks generally pulled back. $MEITUAN(3690.HK) fell below the critical 50-day moving average. If it can't break above 1805, beware of continued declines due to concerns over competition with Ele.me. $TENCENT(700.HK) also fell below the key 625 level today. A true rebound above 640 with heavy volume is needed before challenging $KUAISHOU-W(1024.HK) finds support at 79 for now, likely to consolidate before another upward move.

Newly listed stocks remain strong, with $KNOWLEDGE ATLAS(2513.HK) $ONEROBOTICS(6600.HK) clearly in an uptrend. However, $MINIMAX-W(100.HK) needs more time to consolidate.

Nasdaq futures dipped again when they should have risen, but the futures market has rebounded. A successful break above 26,000 could signal further gains.  
$Tesla(TSLA.US) continues to hover at highs. Despite multiple concepts supporting it, no real breakout has occurred—likely to range between 458 and 425. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is forming a potential head-and-shoulders top. The symmetry of this pattern is noteworthy; a drop below 169 could mark the start of Phase 4. Meanwhile, $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) shows incredible strength, with Q4 results far exceeding expectations. Gross margins significantly beat guidance, with profits up 41% YoY. This suggests continued upside. $Intel(INTC.US) also trends upward along the 10-day MA without much to add.

Positions & Trading  
Quickly locked in index long profits via options, offsetting short losses from Jan 2.

$SANHUA(2050.HK) is disappointing. A true uptrend requires a strong move above 38.4.

The Hang Seng Index lacks a clear one-way trend, making options trading very difficult. Still waiting for a true uptrend.

Opened a short position on $Meta Platforms(META.US), but watch for unexpected rebounds if Nasdaq rallies.

Also shorted $Microsoft(MSFT.US), but monitor OpenAI leadership concerns. Stay alert for rebounds if Nasdaq turns.

Index futures long defensive level set at 26,930.

$BIDU-SW(9888.HK) remains the top tech stock to watch this year, potentially a 2026 dark horse. $J&T EXPRESS-W(1519.HK) will gain visibility and synergies after its deal with SF Express.

$A CSOP HSCEICC(2802.HK) finally announced its first monthly dividend: $0.14 per share, implying an annualized yield of ~19%. Ex-date: Jan 30; payout: Feb 5. If sustained for 12 months, this could be one of the highest-yielding instruments. A key tool for cash flow.

Reflection  
Lately, my mindset has been too volatile, uneasy with market swings, and unable to hold firmly. The main issue might be over-monitoring. Going forward, maintain distance from the screen, using alarms for market checks. Sometimes, stepping back yields unexpected benefits—the visual noise of the market can be overwhelming.

Strategy  
Semiconductor storage remains a major theme. Korean duo $CSOP 2X Leveraged Samsung (07747.HK)$ $XL2CSOPHYNIX(7709.HK) continue rising. Unless they drop 5% below the 10-day MA, upside remains likely.  
With Hong Kong rate cut expectations rising, long-term bonds like $CSOP UST20(3433.HK) may be turning. In 2026, a new Fed chair could trigger rapid cuts, making bonds attractive again. Asia leads global equities, with $CSOP NIKKEI225(3153.HK) particularly noteworthy. $FL2 CSOP NIKKEI(7262.HK) may continue rising in Q1 after a "cup with handle" breakout.  
In Hong Kong, lithium carbonate batteries stand out. $GANFENGLITHIUM(1772.HK) broke key resistance. Even if it pulls back, staying above 63 suggests further upside $BIGANFE@EC2607A(24070.HK).

Your likes and comments fuel my sharing—thank you all.

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