---
title: "Technical analysis of hedging transactions behind Xtalpi CB by Gemini"
type: "Topics"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38175433.md"
description: "From a technical logic and the convention of the Hong Kong stock market, the possibility of investors conducting hedging (Delta Hedging) is extremely high, almost a standard practice in convertible bond (CB) issuance. $XTALPI(02228.HK) This adjustment is not just a "possibility" but an inevitable outcome in the issuance process of such financial products. Below is an in-depth technical analysis: Hedging Mechanism: Delta Neutral Strategy (Delta Hedging) The buyers of convertible bonds are mostly convertible bond arbitrage funds (CB Arbitrageurs)..."
datetime: "2026-01-28T10:41:57.000Z"
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  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38175433.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38175433.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38175433.md)
author: "[老板的老板 AI Exec](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/profiles/123.md)"
---

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# Technical analysis of hedging transactions behind Xtalpi CB by Gemini

From a technical logic and the conventions of the Hong Kong stock market, the possibility of investors engaging in hedging (Delta Hedging) is extremely high, almost a standard practice in convertible bond (CB) issuance.$XTALPI(02228.HK)   
This adjustment is not just a "possibility" but an inevitable outcome in the issuance process of such financial products. Below is an in-depth technical analysis:

1.  Hedging Mechanism: Delta Neutral Strategy (Delta Hedging)  
    Most buyers of convertible bonds are CB arbitrage funds (CB Arbitrageurs). Their core logic is not to bet on the company's stock price rising but to hold the bonds while shorting the underlying stock to earn interest income (zero-coupon in this case, mainly capturing volatility Alpha) and the time value of the option.
    -   Operation: Since CBs have call option attributes, each bond corresponds to a Delta value (i.e., the proportion of bond value change when the stock price moves by 1 HKD). To offset stock price volatility risk, institutions will simultaneously short the corresponding proportion of the underlying stock in the secondary market.
    -   Pressure Source: The issuance size this time is HKD 2.866 billion, with an initial conversion price of HKD 13.85. This means that when locking positions, institutions need to short tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of shares in the secondary market through stock borrowing to establish short hedging positions.
2.  Why the "Adjustment" Appeared Recently? (Timeline Matches)  
    From the K-line chart you provided, the stock price started to decline after hitting a high of HKD 15.120, which closely aligns with the timeline from the announcement of the CB issuance on January 7 to its completion today (January 28):
    -   Pre-Hedging: Between the announcement date and the completion date, subscribing institutional investors typically gradually establish short positions through stock borrowing channels.
    -   Rising Short Ratio: As previous market data showed, Jingtai's short selling ratio (Short Selling Ratio) significantly increased around the announcement (reaching over 11%), a typical sign of hedging funds entering the market.
    -   Finalization: Today's completion of issuance means most large-scale hedging operations are likely nearing their end, but tomorrow's listing may still trigger a final wave of dynamic position adjustments.
3.  Technical Analysis: Selling Pressure and Anchoring Effect
    -   Gravity of Conversion Price (13.85): The conversion price is set at HKD 13.85, a 20% premium, which technically forms a strong resistance level in the medium to long term. The stock price's decline from HKD 15 indicates that the market perceives significant potential dilution pressure and arbitrage selling pressure under the current valuation.
    -   Moving Average System: The MA5 (yellow line) has crossed below the MA10 (blue line), forming a death cross. This reflects that short-term momentum has weakened under the continuous pressure of hedging activities.
    -   Turnover and Volume: Today's turnover rate is 2.07%, with a trading volume of HKD 1.097 billion, indicating a volume-driven adjustment. In the absence of major negative news, such adjustments are often structural squeezes caused by "large-scale financing."
4.  Conclusion and Evaluation
    -   Probability Assessment: Extremely high (\>90%). For a zero-coupon CB of HKD 2.8 billion, no professional institution would choose to remain completely "unhedged."
    -   Future Trend: Once the bonds are listed on January 29 and hedging positions are fully established, the stock price often enters a period of sideways movement or gradual decline based on "stock borrowing costs" and "volatility," unless there are unexpected positive developments in AI drug R&D to offset the short pressure.

Personally, I think this technical selling is likely nearing its end. I am relatively optimistic about the future market. Both fundamentally and macro-narratively, Jingtai's prospects are quite positive. There's no reason to stagnate here.

Hodler!

### 相关股票

- [XTALPI (02228.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/02228.HK.md)

## 评论 (28)

- **王哪跑啊 · 2026-01-28T14:45:11.000Z**: Boss, still adding hood? Haha
  - **老板的老板 AI Exec** (2026-01-28T14:48:38.000Z): Wait a bit longer
  - **王哪跑啊** (2026-01-28T14:55:09.000Z): Ah, it's taking off
- **丫桠 · 2026-01-28T11:03:48.000Z**: deep seek: For those who have already taken positions but feel unstable: Reduce the frequency of checking the market and divert your attention. Understand that this is a "torture phase" rather than a "judgment phase," and grit your teeth to endure this period of technical selling pre
  - **老板的老板 AI Exec** (2026-01-28T11:20:52.000Z): Technical selling, I agree with this view
  - **丫桠** (2026-01-28T11:38:19.000Z): Believe in the power of belief
- **老板的老板 AI Exec · 2026-01-28T10:55:37.000Z · 👍 1**: @Zhou Shuren's trader Can you calculate the short selling volume for the past half month? Does it match with this CB?
  - **周树人的交易员** (2026-01-28T11:20:04.000Z): I calculated that the short selling volume and CB issuance hedging are highly matched, even slightly exceeding expectations
  - **周树人的交易员** (2026-01-28T11:22:04.000Z): Currently feeling like waiting for some news
  - **wolf-001** (2026-01-28T11:28:08.000Z): That should be it
- **wolf-001 · 2026-01-28T10:51:59.000Z · 👍 1**: The next step is to announce $48 million in revenue, which will be recorded as 2025 revenue according to the contract
  - **Ω骑墙派** (2026-01-28T11:26:52.000Z): Hit the nail on the head. The unreleased news has caused market unease.
- **千年伯爵 · 2026-01-28T10:51:46.000Z**: Sell at the opening tomorrow and buy back in a few days
- **wolf-001 · 2026-01-28T10:49:44.000Z · 👍 1**: A master is a master
- **就是要赚钱 · 2026-01-28T10:47:39.000Z**: Announcement has been issued
- **我的小钱钱 · 2026-01-28T10:47:32.000Z · 👍 2**: Alright, couldn't hold back, bought at the close😔
  - **老板的老板 AI Exec** (2026-01-28T10:55:02.000Z): I think the adjustment is almost over.
  - **我的小钱钱** (2026-01-28T10:56:16.000Z): Hehe again😁
  - **就是要赚钱** (2026-01-28T10:56:43.000Z): With the boss, I asked Qianwen, and he is bullish on MM
- **千年伯爵 · 2026-01-28T10:46:48.000Z**: The endless decline is about to begin
- **天放的大时代 · 2026-01-28T10:46:07.000Z · 👍 1**: Still falling! Can't take it anymore