--- title: "Whether it's investing or speculating, it's a matter of mathematics and psychological games! Should I buy pdd options at 0.20?" type: "Topics" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38845361.md" description: "I slept quite well during the Spring Festival, and only gradually got back into work mode last night. Noticed that the price of Pdd 0320 130 hit a low of 0.20 two days ago (lost over 8000), and today it reached a high of 0.53. Based on @Miracle Trader cola and my understanding of the policy, the shoe hasn't dropped for Pdd yet, so I'm still not too keen on averaging down. But I'm not giving up either. I got up this morning and had AI calculate the profit scenarios if I top up at 0.2, 0.25, 0.41, and the stock price reaches 110, 115, 125..." datetime: "2026-02-24T01:48:26.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38845361.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/38845361.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38845361.md) author: "[不奋东西](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/profiles/14442740.md)" --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/38845361.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/38845361.md) # Whether it's investing or speculating, it's a matter of mathematics and psychological games! Should I buy pdd options at 0.20? During the Spring Festival, I slept quite well, and it wasn't until last night that I gradually got back into work mode. I noticed that the price of Pdd 0320 130 hit a low of 0.20 two days ago (a loss of over 8000), and today it reached a high of 0.53. Based on @Miracle Trader Cola and my understanding of the policy, the shoe hasn't dropped for Pdd yet, so I'm still hesitant to average down. But I'm not giving up either. I got up this morning and had AI calculate the potential profits from averaging down at 0.2, 0.25, and 0.41, assuming the stock price reaches 110, 115, and 125.    The calculation proves that with my current position, averaging down with 5,000 yuan now could potentially break even as long as the stock price reaches 110. So, should I average down or not? This is really a tough choice! ### Scenario with Purchase Price of 0.20 **Optimal Buying Strategy:** Assuming you control additional risk to about 5,000 USD (based on your total asset size to avoid excessive leverage), it is recommended to buy 250 contracts. Each contract costs 20 USD, for a total additional investment of 5,000 USD. The new total position becomes 336 contracts, with a diluted average cost of approximately 0.52 USD/share (original total cost ~12,479 USD + new investment 5,000 USD = 17,479 USD, total equivalent shares 33,600). **Profit Scenario (assuming the stock price rises to specified levels in the short term, with option prices adjusted accordingly, estimated using the Black-Scholes model, implied volatility ~48%, remaining time ~25 days, risk-free rate 5%):** - **Stock Price 110 USD (slight increase)**: Estimated option price 0.68 USD/share, total value ~22,848 USD, profit ~+5,369 USD (turning from current loss into a small profit). - **Stock Price 115 USD (moderate increase)**: Estimated option price 1.40 USD/share, total value ~47,040 USD, profit ~+29,561 USD. - **Stock Price 125 USD (significant increase)**: Estimated option price 4.35 USD/share, total value ~146,160 USD, profit ~+128,681 USD. ### Scenario with Purchase Price of 0.25 **Optimal Buying Strategy:** Control additional risk to about 5,000 USD, recommend buying 200 contracts. Each contract costs 25 USD, total additional investment 5,000 USD. New total position 286 contracts, diluted average cost ~0.61 USD/share (total cost 17,479 USD, total equivalent shares 28,600). **Profit Scenario (same model assumptions as above):** - **Stock Price 110 USD**: Estimated option price 0.68 USD/share, total value ~19,448 USD, profit ~+1,969 USD (turning from loss into a slight profit). - **Stock Price 115 USD**: Estimated option price 1.40 USD/share, total value ~40,040 USD, profit ~+22,561 USD. - **Stock Price 125 USD**: Estimated option price 4.35 USD/share, total value ~124,410 USD, profit ~+106,931 USD. ### Scenario with Purchase Price of 0.41 **Optimal Buying Strategy:** Control additional risk to about 5,000 USD, recommend buying 122 contracts. Each contract costs 41 USD, total additional investment ~5,002 USD. New total position 208 contracts, diluted average cost ~0.84 USD/share (total cost ~17,481 USD, total equivalent shares 20,800). **Profit Scenario (same model assumptions as above):** - **Stock Price 110 USD**: Estimated option price 0.68 USD/share, total value ~14,144 USD, profit ~-3,337 USD (still a loss, but less than the original position's loss). - **Stock Price 115 USD**: Estimated option price 1.40 USD/share, total value ~29,120 USD, profit ~+11,639 USD. - **Stock Price 125 USD**: Estimated option price 4.35 USD/share, total value ~90,480 USD, profit ~+72,999 USD. **Notes:** - Calculation is based on current position of 86 contracts, cost 1.451 USD/share, stock price 107 USD. Current total value ~3,526 USD, loss ~8,953 USD. Profit is the estimated total value of options at specified stock prices minus total cost (excluding fees, taxes). - These are estimates for short-term upward scenarios, not expiration value. As long as the option price increases (even if the stock doesn't reach 130), profits can be realized by selling. The model assumes constant implied volatility and minimal time decay (applicable for short-term changes); in actual markets, volatility or time value may affect results. PDD has high volatility; it is recommended to monitor real-time option chains. If risk appetite is higher, the averaging down amount can be increased, but be mindful of leverage risks. ### 相关股票 - [PDD (PDD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/PDD.US.md) ## 评论 (3) - **不奋东西 · 2026-02-24T15:33:08.000Z · 👍 1**: $PDD 260320 130 Call.USBought 100 contracts at 0.34,with 1600 yuan left to wait and see.$Microsoft(MSFT.US)Bought 100 contracts of 0320 450C at 0.395.Now all that's left is to leave it to time. - **奇迹的交易员cola · 2026-02-24T01:55:18.000Z · 👍 1**: It's cheap, so it's fine to play around. TCOM is the same, cheap, you might lose a few thousand dollars, but what if you win hundreds of thousands? Gambling is about calculating the odds and placing bets, as long as there's convexity; the important thing is to know what you're doing. - **不奋东西** (2026-02-24T01:58:32.000Z): Yes.There is also gambling in investing, but you need to calculate clearly and gamble with understanding.Thanks for the reminder, TCOM can be watched, and the January 2027 options can be added.