--- title: "32 countries around the world jointly released 400 million barrels of oil reserves, and the oil price broke through $100 on the same day—what does this mean? Your hedging strategy may need an upgrade." type: "Topics" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39240607.md" description: "$Us Brent Oil(BNO.US) $SPDR Energy Select(XLE.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) Key conclusion first: Yesterday, the IEA (International Energy Agency, the organization responsible for coordinating global energy security) announced that 32 member countries jointly released 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, the largest release in history. The United States alone contributed 172 million barrels. The result? Brent crude oil rose 9.22% that day, settling at $100.46, breaking the $100 mark for the first time in three and a half years. The three major U.S. stock indices fell for the third consecutive day..." datetime: "2026-03-13T05:27:59.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39240607.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39240607.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39240607.md) author: "[Fiona第一线](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/profiles/25149506.md)" --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39240607.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39240607.md) # 32 countries around the world jointly released 400 million barrels of oil reserves, and the oil price broke through $100 on the same day—what does this mean? Your hedging strategy may need an upgrade. $Us Brent Oil(BNO.US) $SPDR Energy Select(XLE.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) Let's get straight to the core conclusion: Yesterday, the IEA (International Energy Agency, the organization responsible for coordinating global energy security) announced that 32 member countries would jointly release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, the largest release in history. The United States alone contributed 172 million barrels. And the result? **Brent crude oil rose 9.22% that day, closing at $100.46, breaking the $100 mark for the first time in three and a half years**. The three major U.S. stock indices fell for the third consecutive day, all hitting new lows for 2026. But on the same day, AI computing power company Nebius, which received a $2 billion investment from NVIDIA, rose 16%, and Oracle rose 9%. Panic is not evenly distributed—some assets collapse in fear, while others confirm their value in fear. Read on for three minutes to help you clarify what to watch and what to avoid now. ## First, understand: Why didn't the 400 million barrels work? 400 million barrels sounds like a lot, but let's do the math. The Strait of Hormuz (a transit route for about 20% of the world's oil, with over 20 million barrels of crude oil passing through daily) is now basically closed—Iran's new Supreme Leader announced via state television today that the strait will "remain closed" and threatened to attack U.S. military bases. Three more ships were bombed in the Persian Gulf. With a daily loss of 20 million barrels, 400 million barrels would be used up in about 20 days. Moreover, the IEA's actual release rate in history has never exceeded 2 million barrels per day. So, these 400 million barrels won't flood the market all at once; they will trickle in slowly—but the loss from the strait is an instant cut-off. **What it means for you: If your judgment is based on the assumption that "oil prices will fall soon," today's facts are telling you—the world's biggest combined effort didn't win, and the probability of oil prices falling in the short term is decreasing. Any holdings based on the assumption of low oil prices (airlines, cruise lines, high-fuel-consumption industries) now need to be re-examined.** ## What's rising in a panic market? The overall U.S. stock market fell today—the Dow was down 739 points, and the Nasdaq was down 1.78%. But a few things bucked the trend and rose: The energy sector XLE +2.52%—this is no surprise, as rising oil prices naturally benefit energy. Fertilizer and chemical stocks were even more exaggerated, with CF Industries up 13% and Celanese up 15%, because their raw materials rely on strait transportation. More noteworthy is AI infrastructure: Nebius rose over 16% because NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment in this AI cloud company. Oracle rose more than 9% because its Q3 earnings report released in the previous trading session exceeded expectations. CoreWeave rose 9.4%. These companies surged on days when the overall U.S. stock market hit new yearly lows. **What it means for you: Assets that rise against the trend in a panic market indicate that the market believes these companies' demand won't be interrupted by geopolitical risks. The NVIDIA GTC conference opens next week (3/16-19). If you've been following the AI track but hesitating about the timing to enter—when the VIX (a measure of market volatility expectations, the higher it is, the more panicked the market) falls back below 20, you can consider gradually building positions in computing power-related targets. The VIX is still above 24 now, so there's no rush.** ## After the good CPI news, PPI poured cold water The February CPI (Consumer Price Index, measuring how much more expensive the things you buy have become) released yesterday was 2.4% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.5%, meeting expectations—this was originally good news. But today, the PPI (Producer Price Index, measuring changes in costs for factories and wholesalers) came out higher than expected. What does this mean? Factory costs are already rising; they just haven't fully been passed on to the prices you see in the supermarket yet. It's a time lag. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.26%, and mortgage rates rose to 6.11%. Wall Street's well-known strategist Yardeni raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, using the term "1970s-style stagflation" (a state where economic stagnation and inflation occur simultaneously). **What it means for you: Trump today called for Powell to "cut interest rates immediately," but the market no longer 100% expects a rate cut within the year. The disappearance of rate cut expectations is bad news for high-valuation tech stocks (not AI infrastructure, but those that rely on low interest rates to support their valuations). The March 18 FOMC meeting is the next key node.** ## Another signal to watch out for Morgan Stanley froze redemptions for one of its private credit funds—meaning investors wanted to withdraw money, but the fund said no. This usually means the assets held by the fund can't be sold. Morgan Stanley's own stock price fell 4.1%. Freezing redemptions is an early signal of liquidity problems (the ease of buying and selling assets in the market). It may not necessarily spread, but when it appears simultaneously with a soaring VIX, the S&P falling for three consecutive days, and the CNN Fear & Greed Index entering "Extreme Fear"—you at least need to keep more cash on hand. ## So, what should I do now? Short-term—cash is your best weapon. A VIX above 24 is not the time for heavy positions. Energy stocks can be traded short-term, but don't hold overnight—oil prices are now completely driven by politicians' statements, and overnight risks are incalculable. Stay away from airlines, cruise lines, and high-fuel-consumption sectors. Medium-term—watch two things: ① Any signs of the Strait of Hormuz reopening (U.S. military escort, diplomatic negotiations); ② What Powell says at next week's FOMC meeting. If he defines the oil price shock as "transitory," tech stocks will have room to breathe; if he is hawkish, valuations will be compressed further. AI computing power—the performance of Nebius, Oracle, and CoreWeave in the panic market has already proven their certainty. The GTC conference is a catalyst. But don't go heavy when the VIX is high—wait for clearer signals before moving. What do you think can still suppress oil prices after the IEA has played its biggest card? Let's discuss in the comments. Disclaimer: The above is a sharing of personal views and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. ### 相关股票 - [Nebius (NBIS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NBIS.US.md) - [Us Brent Oil (BNO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BNO.US.md) - [Coreweave (CRWV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/CRWV.US.md) - [Oracle (ORCL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ORCL.US.md) - [SPDR Energy Select (XLE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XLE.US.md) - [ORACLE CORP DEPOSITARY SH REP 1/2000TH PFD SER D (ORCL-D.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/ORCL-D.US.md)