--- title: "LULU (Trans): Pricing expected to return to positive growth in H2 2026" type: "Topics" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39324716.md" description: "Below is Dolphin Research's Lululemon FY25 earnings call Trans.For our analysis of the results, please see 'Lululemon: Fast-fashion blitz — can a ZARA-style push save the black leggings?'.---" datetime: "2026-03-18T02:40:08.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39324716.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39324716.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39324716.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/dolphin.md)" --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39324716.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39324716.md) # LULU (Trans): Pricing expected to return to positive growth in H2 2026 **Below is Dolphin Research’s Trans of Lululemon FY25 earnings call; for our take, see** [**Lululemon: Can a ZARA-style fast attack save the ‘black leggings’ as slow craft is set aside?**](https://longbridge.cn/en/topics/39324545?channel=SH000001&invite-code=7XHHT4&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN&share_track_id=25d4b32c-682e-4f6b-beb3-153cb86f7b2c) $Lululemon(LULU.US) **I. Key takeaways** 1\. **Shareholder returns**: $1.6bn of repurchase auth. remains. $153mn was bought back in Q4. 2\. **FY26 guide**: revenue of $11.28-11.48bn (+2%-4% YoY), EPS of $12.00-12.30. Q1 revenue of $2.435-2.465bn (+1%-3% YoY), EPS of $1.70-1.80. 3\. **Margin pressure**: FY26 OPM expected to decline ~250bps, driven by reinstated incentive comp and labor, plus proxy contest expenses. Tariffs are a ~$70-80mn headwind, largely hedged in-year. 4\. **Inventory**: Q4 inventory units +6% YoY, better than high-single-digit guide. FY26 inventory units to be flat to slightly down to support a recovery in full-price sales. 5\. **Store expansion**: FY26 plan for net 40-45 new stores (approx. 15 in N. America, 25-30 Intl, led by Mainland China). Selling space to grow low double digits. **II. Call details** **2.1 Management remarks** 1\. **N. America and restoring full-price health** a. Q4 comp +2% in N. America and +18% Intl; excluding the 53rd week, total comp +6%. b. Full-price in N. America is the focus: markdown penetration up 130bps YoY in Q4, and up 60bps for FY25. c. For FY26, management expects Q1 full-price trends to improve materially vs. Q4, near flat in Q2, then positive in 2H. d. Inventory units flat to slightly down, aligned with the flow of newness to support the full-price recovery. 2\. **Product innovation and newness** a. Newness penetration to rise from 23% in FY25 to 35% in FY26, defined as net-new products rather than new colors. b. Launches include Unrestricted Power, ThermoZen, and ShowZero platforms. c. A running capsule dropped; employee purchases have picked up recently and are viewed as a positive signal. d. Design-to-shelf cycle targeted to compress from 18-24 months to 12-14 months, aided by AI and automation. 3\. **International** a. Mainland China grew +26% in Q4 and +40% for FY25. b. Intl model performing well: brand-first strategy, full-price centricity, grassroots community marketing, and premium store experience. c. Australia and Korea also maintain strong momentum. 4\. **Brand marketing and activation** a. FY26 opex ratio for marketing to be roughly flat, with a shift toward brand activation and on-brand influencers/ambassadors. b. Key activations include sponsorship of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, Milan Olympics initiatives, the Studio Yet event in LA, and Chinese New Year programs. c. No. 1 brand in US women’s active remains intact; share in total apparel is stable, with an activewear share dip of <1ppt. 5\. **Leadership transition and corp. strategy** a. Interim co-CEOs Meghan Frank and Andre Maestrini are executing the action plan. b. CEO search is ongoing. c. A new CTO has joined with a focus on AI. d. A new store design prototype is in test, and site functionality continues to improve. **2.2 Q&A** **Q: When will N. America full-price return to positive, and how will markdown penetration trend through the year?** A: We are focused on restoring full-price health. Q1 should improve materially vs. Q4, Q2 in N. America should be near flat on full-price, and 2H should turn positive. On markdowns, Q4 penetration rose 130bps YoY and FY25 was up 60bps for the year; FY26 should see a modest improvement, mostly in 2H, with a small uptick in Q1. **Q: Are underlying trends improving post newness, or is improvement mainly driven by new launches?** A: We are seeing improvement. From Q4 into Q1, full-price inflected positively, though it will take time to turn fully positive; we expect sequential improvement through the year and positive in 2H. New platforms like Unrestricted Power, ThermoZen, and ShowZero will scale later this year, and we introduced an exciting running capsule earlier this month. As the quarter progresses, we are building on this; it is early, but signals are encouraging, including a recent uptick in employee purchases post newness. **Q: Any adjustments to marketing to drive N. America back to growth, or stick with grassroots activation?** A: We are reviewing marketing to ensure stronger customer engagement and more front-and-center presentation of newness. You will see increased use of on-brand influencers and ambassadors this year, with a heavy focus on activation. Q1 examples include the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, the Milan Olympics product showcases, the Studio Yet event in LA, and Chinese New Year activations. **Q: Of the 35% newness penetration, how much is new product vs. new colors? What is being pruned to make room, how are decisions governed, and how much capex goes to AI?** A: The rise from 23% to 35% is new-to-customer product, not color updates, and we are rationalizing SKUs to sharpen the mix and increase visibility of newness in stores and online. Creative Director Jonathan Cheung and Chief Merchandising Officer Liz Binder report to me, and we are tightly coordinated on these changes. On capex, we are investing in AI primarily to strengthen the data foundation; initiatives focus on customer-facing applications, calendar optimization, and cycle acceleration, which are key to our enterprise enablement strategy. **Q: Can you quantify current N. America full-price realization and FY26 targets?** A: **FY25 markdown penetration ran higher than expected, with Q4 up 130bps YoY and the year up 60bps**. We have not provided a specific FY26 number, but Q1 will improve notably and we are already seeing that; Q4 was the trough given the +130bps markdown uptick, so full-price was most pressured then. The sequential improvement is meaningful, though Q1 full-price will still trail total revenue growth. We expect near flat in Q2 and positive in 2H. Drivers include newness, SKU rationalization, and inventory management—FY26 inventory units flat to slightly down, with a focus on reading newness and chasing winners. The product team has enhanced in-season chase capabilities, laying a solid foundation to normalize full-price penetration. **Q: How firm is the FY26 store plan, could a new CEO change it, and what is FY26 marketing as a % of revenue?** A: We deploy capex with discipline on a project-by-project basis. New stores and expansions continue to deliver strong returns—FY25 new-store ROI in both N. America and Intl exceeded 100% with payback under one year. Flagship conversions to larger formats are solid, with large-format productivity above the fleet Avg. and industry-leading sales per sq. ft. over $1,400. For FY26, we plan net ~40-45 openings: around 15 in N. America (mostly Mexico, limited US) and 25-30 Intl (primarily Mainland China). The FY26 space growth plan is largely set. Marketing as a % of revenue should be roughly flat, with a mix shift toward impactful customer activations and on-brand influencers/ambassadors, and we will lean in further if results justify it. **Q: Bridge from underlying +4% in Q4 to Q1 guide of +1%-3%; what drives full-year growth and what constrains it?** A: Ex the 53rd week, Q4 grew +6%. Q1 is guided to +1%-3% and the year to +2%-4%. The cadence hinges on the full-price recovery—Q4 was the trough with a +130bps markdown step-up; Q1 is improving but full-price remains negative, Q2 flattens, and 2H accelerates, also comping the heavier markdowns in 2H FY25. **Q: Of the \>200bps FY26 OPM decline, how much is transitory, and what revenue growth is needed to re-expand margins?** A: We guided ~250bps down in OPM. Most reflects restored incentive comp and labor from FY25 and proxy contest expenses; tariffs are a headwind but largely hedged in-year. We view this as the margin trough and expect improvement into FY27; with 2%-4% top-line growth, fixed costs put some pressure on leverage, and the exact breakpoint will depend on business trajectory and investment levels, but we expect improvement from here. **Q: How are full-price trends Intl and in China, and what is newness penetration there?** A: Intl full-price has not seen the N. America pressure, and we are comfortable with current levels; product innovation and activation from the action plan will benefit all regions. The Intl model works because it is fully oriented to full-price: brand-first, premium positioning in key markets, a diversified multi-sport product portfolio, disciplined markdowns, premium execution in stores and online, and grassroots community engagement. Signature events like China’s Summer Sweat Games keep driving organic traffic, and we are exporting the playbook to more markets, e.g., Studio Yet in LA and the Indian Wells sponsorship; all global newness supports full-price sell-through. **Q: Why is Canada slower in Q1, and how is the cycle-time compression progressing?** A: In Canada, while we are working to restore full-price across N. America, the consumer is more promotion-sensitive, so the impact is more pronounced. We expect the same product mix and activation resets to help rebase the business. On cycle time, we are moving from 18-24 months to 12-14 months by improving tools, processes, and systems, leveraging AI and automation; our new CTO is focused on AI, and the teams are energized, with significant effort on simplification and speed. **Q: Are high-value customer trends improving with newness?** A: It is still early in the quarter, and we need more time to assess high-value customer behavior. We are seeing green shoots around newness and expect this to extend to that cohort; we will share more as the quarter progresses. **Q: Did you gain share in active this quarter, how do you view premium active/functional apparel, and how are new categories performing?** A: On share, total apparel share is stable, with a small loss of <1ppt in active; as Andre noted, we remain the No. 1 brand in US women’s active. By category, tops and bottoms both performed well: Unrestricted Power spans women’s tights, men’s shorts, and tops; ThermoZen is an outerwear innovation; on bottoms, EasyFive and Groove Wide-Leg are standouts; the running capsule includes tops and bottoms and brings energy and excitement. The teams are chasing winners and folding learnings into future seasons’ creative direction. **Q: Was Q4-end inventory in a good place, and how should we think about FY26 inventory by quarter?** A: We were pleased with both the level and composition at Q4-end. Inventory units were guided to high-single-digit growth but came in at +6%, cleaner than planned; we focused on clearing seasonal goods so we enter FY26 with a mix that better reflects our forward strategy. For FY26, units should be flat to slightly down, including at Q1-end, which is critical to restoring full-price and normalizing penetration. Risk disclosure and disclaimer:[Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### 相关股票 - [Lululemon (LULU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/LULU.US.md)