---
title: "Some thoughts on the approach to the strike zone"
type: "Topics"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39467749.md"
description: "Doing a hindsight review: I've been gathering ammunition over the past two days, preparing for the potential upcoming hitting zone (when the US stock valuation temperature is ≤50 degrees). Unfortunately, the US market reversed overnight. If this is a phased bottom, perhaps making some subtle adjustments in strategy would be better. I overlooked one point: although the A-share S&P 500 ETF is correlated with the overall trend of the S&P 500 index, its daily volatility is heavily influenced by sentiment. The S&P 500 index fell 1.51% at Friday's close on March 20th, but the very next A-share trading day (which was yesterday)..."
datetime: "2026-03-24T02:04:19.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39467749.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39467749.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39467749.md)
author: "[长坡行者](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/profiles/14120321.md)"
---

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# Some thoughts on the approach to the strike zone

### A post-mortem analysis:

Over the past two days, I've been gathering ammunition, ready for the potential hitting zone that might be coming soon (when the US stock valuation temperature falls to ≤50 degrees). Unfortunately, the US market reversed overnight. If this is a temporary bottom, making some slight strategic adjustments might be better.

I overlooked one point: although the S&P 500 ETF in the A-share market is correlated with the overall trend of the S&P 500 Index, its daily volatility is heavily influenced by sentiment. The S&P 500 Index closed down 1.51% on Friday, March 20th. However, on the very next A-share trading day (yesterday), the S&P 500 ETF I held plummeted by 3.43%, more than double the previous day's drop in the S&P 500 Index. This clearly indicates it was hit by extreme market sentiment. This single-day drop of 3.43% has very likely already pushed the US stock valuation below 50 degrees ahead of schedule (last night's US market session was also terrible; based on the night session's trend, if not for a wave of news about Trump, the US market's close wouldn't have looked good).

### S&P 500 Index closed down 1.51% on March 20

### S&P 500 ETF closed down 3.43% on March 23

#### If I could do it all over again:

Noticing the price gap between the S&P 500 Index and the S&P 500 ETF, I could have first built a 48% position (the US stock valuation temperature at the previous trading day's close was 52 degrees), and then added the remaining position after it fell below 50 degrees.

#### A more conservative strategy would be:

First, build a 48% position (but don't double the chip pool), wait for it to fall below 50 degrees, then double the chip pool and buy the remaining position.

It seems being too laid-back isn't great either. I didn't even check my US stock ETF account yesterday 🤣. In this kind of market environment, when we're approaching the hitting zone, it's indeed necessary to stay vigilant.

The situation is complex and volatile; Iran has already "debunked" the rumors. There might still be a chance. Let's continue waiting for the hitting zone to appear 🤔

$S&P 500(.SPX.US) 

$ChinaAMC S&P 500 ETF(QDII)(159655.SZ)

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