--- title: "The Nasdaq has fallen into a \"correction zone\"—the term sounds scary, but the real thing to fear is something else." type: "Topics" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39589520.md" description: "Conclusion first: The Nasdaq fell 2.38% to 21,408 last night, down more than 10% from its October high last year, officially entering a correction zone (correction: a 10%-20% decline from a high, a standard Wall Street term, not as severe as a "bear market"). On the same day, the OECD revised its US inflation forecast for 2026 directly up from 2.8% to 4.2%—this means the "Fed rate cut rescue" that could be counted on during every previous major decline is unlikely to come this time. If you hold US tech stocks, this article is worth reading before deciding your next move. The word 'correction' sounds scary..." datetime: "2026-03-27T16:06:35.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39589520.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/39589520.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39589520.md) author: "[老韭菜进化论](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/profiles/25150350.md)" --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/39589520.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/39589520.md) # The Nasdaq has fallen into a "correction zone"—the term sounds scary, but the real thing to fear is something else. **First, the conclusion: Last night, the Nasdaq fell 2.38% to 21,408, down more than 10% from its October high last year, officially entering a correction zone (correction: a 10%-20% decline from a high, a standard Wall Street term, not as severe as a "bear market").** On the same day, the OECD revised up its US inflation forecast for 2026 directly from 2.8% to 4.2% — this means the "Fed rate cut to the rescue" that could be counted on in every previous major decline is unlikely to come this time. If you hold US tech stocks, this article is worth reading before deciding on your next move. The word 'correction' sounds scary, but historically it's actually a frequent visitor. **The S&P 500, from 1990 to now, has seen corrections (10%-20% declines) last an average of about 17 days.** A correction is completely different from a crash — the March 2020 pandemic event was a crash, with Apple and junk stocks being dumped together. Last night's situation was that some things were falling, while others remained unmoved. But every time a correction comes, social media splits into two camps: one shouting "run!" and the other shouting "history proves corrections are buying opportunities." Both sides have a point, and both are engaging in sophistry. What really determines whether you make or lose money is not the correction itself, but the decisions you make during the correction. I experienced one in December 2018. That year, the Nasdaq fell into correction territory, my account had a 14% drawdown, and everyone was saying the trade war was going to end everything and the Fed's rate hikes would kill the bull market. I held on until the day before Christmas Eve, finally couldn't take it anymore, and halved my tech positions.**In January 2019, the Fed turned dovish, and the market V-shaped rebounded. If I hadn't touched the positions I cut, I would have broken even and made a profit by April.** Corrections don't kill. What kills are the three decisions you make during a correction: selling at the bottom, chasing the rebound top, and then swearing never to trade stocks again — only to come back three months later. But this correction has a problem that previous ones didn't. **How bad was last night's data? The S&P fell 1.74% to 6,477, its biggest single-day drop this year. Brent crude closed at $108, up 5.66%.** Google released a new algorithm that allows AI models to use less memory, Micron fell 6.9%, NVIDIA fell 4.14%. Meta fell 7.9% after losing a child safety lawsuit. The CNN Fear & Greed Index (0 to 100, lower means more fear) dropped to 12-15, extreme fear. But none of these are the most important news. The most important is the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, essentially the "official think tank" for the world's developed economies) revising up its US inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.8% to 4.2%. Why is this number more important than how much the Nasdaq fell? In every previous major decline, the market was betting "the Fed will come to the rescue" — **2018: over-tightening → turned dovish → recovered. 2020: pandemic → zero rates + QE → recovered. 2022: inflation → rate hikes peaked → 2023 rate cut expectations began → recovered again.** But with 4.2% inflation, a Fed rate cut would make inflation higher. Not cutting puts pressure on the economy. This is stagflation (the economy is slowing while prices are still rising, leaving the central bank in a dilemma) — meaning the "safety net" present in every previous correction might not be there this time. **The OECD expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged for the full year. Goldman Sachs pushed the first rate cut to September.** After-hours news: Trump extends ceasefire again About 20 minutes after the US market close, Trump announced an extension of the pause on attacks against Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6. Brent futures immediately fell below $100. A similar script played out last on March 23 — after the Hong Kong market close, Trump announced a 5-day pause, and the Hong Kong market rose 2.79% the next day. Asian markets are highly likely to react positively today. But how long did that 5-day pause on 3/23 last? Oil prices were back above $100 in less than a week. My positions and actions Day 23, zero operations. The three observation conditions set on March 24th — the S&P below its 200-day moving average (the average price over the past 200 days, a reference line for judging long-term trends), Iran's negative attitude, the direction of Southbound capital flows — none have shown signs of improvement yet. If you hold US tech stocks, the most important operational framework now is: do not chase the rally and add positions during today's Asian rebound. The ceasefire extension window is only 10 days. If there is no substantial agreement before April 6th, oil prices will surge above $100+ again, and the selling pressure then will be greater than before. Specifically: if Brent can stabilize below $95 over the next week, you could consider adding a small position in tech — but only if you're adding stocks you are genuinely bullish on fundamentally (e.g., Tencent's cloud business, NVIDIA's orders), not based on the logic of "it's fallen a lot so it will rebound." If Brent climbs back above $105, continue waiting, no adding. A self-check list for "what to do during a correction": First, can your portfolio withstand another 10% drop? If not, use the rebound to reduce your position to a level you can sleep with. Second, are there any stocks in your holdings that you "haven't sold only because they've fallen a lot"? These are exactly what you should clear out during a correction — selling them isn't capitulation, it's making room for the positions you truly believe in. Third, don't rotate your portfolio during a correction. Getting whipsawed by switching back and forth is the classic way retail investors lose money during adjustments. Asia is highly likely to rebound today. But the correction isn't over yet, and every decision you make within it is far more important than the correction itself. What are you planning to do today? Let's talk in the comments.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH.US) ### 相关股票 - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SQQQ.US.md) - [ProShares Shrt QQQ (PSQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/PSQ.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [Apple (AAPL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/AAPL.US.md) - [Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [Direxion Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight Index shares (QQQE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/QQQE.US.md) - [Proshares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [Micron Tech (MU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/MU.US.md) - [NVIDIA (NVDA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [SPDR S&P 500 (SPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SPY.US.md) - [VG S&P 500 Grw (VOOG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/VOOG.US.md) - [Meta Platforms (META.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/META.US.md) - [VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SMH.US.md) - [Alphabet - C (GOOG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [Alphabet (GOOGL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [TENCENT (00700.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/00700.HK.md) - [Tencent (TCEHY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TCEHY.US.md) - [TENCENT-R (80700.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/80700.HK.md) - [Tencent Holdings Limited (TCTZF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TCTZF.US.md) - [Tencent HK SDR 10to1 (HTCD.SG)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/HTCD.SG.md) ## 评论 (1) - **lyc · 2026-03-27T16:36:47.000Z**: Kept getting stopped out