--- title: "更好的電動汽車股票：蔚來汽車 vs. QuantumScape" description: "蔚來汽車和 QuantumScape 是電動汽車市場上兩家擁有不同重點的公司。蔚來汽車生產可更換電池的電動汽車，而 QuantumScape 正在開發固態電池。蔚來汽車在市場上面臨着挑戰，包括價格戰和供應鏈限制，但其股價看起來便宜，並且憑藉其固態電池技術具有潛力。QuantumScape 尚未實現收入，並面臨來自其他公司的競爭。總體而言，蔚來汽車似乎是更好的投資選擇" type: "news" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/200508143.md" published_at: "2024-03-23T07:28:53.000Z" --- # 更好的電動汽車股票：蔚來汽車 vs. QuantumScape > 蔚來汽車和 QuantumScape 是電動汽車市場上兩家擁有不同重點的公司。蔚來汽車生產可更換電池的電動汽車，而 QuantumScape 正在開發固態電池。蔚來汽車在市場上面臨着挑戰，包括價格戰和供應鏈限制，但其股價看起來便宜，並且憑藉其固態電池技術具有潛力。QuantumScape 尚未實現收入，並面臨來自其他公司的競爭。總體而言，蔚來汽車似乎是更好的投資選擇 **Nio** (NIO -2.20%) and **QuantumScape** (QS -3.41%) might seem like two very different ways to invest in the electric vehicle (EV) market. Nio is a leading producer of electric sedans and SUVs in China, while QuantumScape is developing solid-state batteries, which could significantly boost the stability, charging time, and range of EV batteries. But batteries are also a big part of Nio's business. Nio differentiates itself from its competitors with removable batteries that can be quickly replaced at its battery-swapping stations. It's also been developing its own solid-state batteries. Image source: Getty Images. Nio and QuantumScape both ran out of juice as rising interest rates drove investors away from speculative EV plays. Nio went public at $6.28 per American depositary share in 2018, soared to a record high of $62.84 in early 2021, but dropped back to $5. QuantumScape's stock opened at $24.80 after it merged with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in 2020. It hit its all-time high of $131.67 less than a month later, but it now trades at about $6. Should investors buy either of these burned-out EV stocks? ## Nio needs to survive a grueling price war Nio started to deliver its first vehicles in 2018, and its deliveries increased by 81% in 2019, 113% in 2020, and 109% in 2021. Those incredible growth rates convinced the bulls that Nio was in a position to become the "**Tesla** of China." But in 2022, Nio's deliveries only rose 34%. And in 2023, they grew 31% to 160,038 vehicles. As those deliveries slowed down, its vehicle margin declined from 13.7% in 2022 to 9.5% in 2023. Nio blamed its slowing growth and shrinking margins on supply chain constraints, tough macro headwinds in China, and the ongoing price war in China's crowded EV market. As the company slashed its prices to stay competitive, it ramped up its spending on its battery-swapping networks and overseas expansion. As a result, its total adjusted operating margin worsened from negative 27% in 2022 to negative 36% in 2023. Those challenges seem dire, but Nio's vehicle margin still expanded sequentially over the past three quarters, which suggests its prices are stabilizing in a difficult market. It should also gradually narrow its net losses as it scales up its battery-swapping networks. Looking further ahead, it could gain a competitive edge when it finally installs its solid-state batteries -- which have been tested on its vehicles over the past three years -- in its commercial EVs. For 2024, analysts expect Nio's revenue to rise 27% to 70.8 billion yuan ($9.8 billion) as it slightly narrows its net loss from 15.5 billion yuan to 13.1 billion yuan ($1.8 billion). The EV maker still has a lot to prove, but its stock looks cheap at just 1 time next year's sales -- and it could head a lot higher once it stabilizes its business. ## QuantumScape needs to start generating revenue QuantumScape is much harder to quantify than Nio because it hasn't commercialized its solid-state batteries to generate any meaningful revenue yet. **Volkswagen** is one of its top investors, but the German automaker also reportedly held talks to forge a similar partnership with the French solid-state battery maker Blue Solutions over the past year. QuantumScape's newest solid-state batteries for EVs have a range of 400 to 500 miles and a charge time of less than 15 minutes. It's also developing a new generation of batteries that could reach 600 miles with a charge time of less than 30 minutes. Those upgrades could disrupt the current market for lithium-ion batteries, which have a range of approximately 300 miles and a charge time of 30 minutes. They're also more resilient than lithium-ion batteries. After conducting its first endurance test earlier this year, Volkswagen said that QuantumScape's batteries could power an EV for over 310,000 miles without any noticeable loss of range. By comparison, most lithium-ion batteries lose about 10% of their range after 200,000 miles. That technology sounds promising, but plenty of other companies -- including Blue Solutions, Nio, and **Toyota** -- are developing their own solid-state batteries. If QuantumScape fails to beat those competitors to the punch, its money-burning business -- which posted a net loss of $445 million in 2023 without generating any revenue -- could quickly crumble. On the other hand, it could still have plenty of upside potential if it successfully commercializes its batteries. ## The better buy: Nio Nio and QuantumScape are both speculative stocks. But if I had to pick one over the other, I'd buy Nio because it's scaling up its business, generating stable revenue, and it trades at a discount to its sales growth. QuantumScape hasn't proved that its business model is sustainable yet, and it could burn a lot more cash before it commercializes its first solid-state batteries. ### Related Stocks - [NIO.SG - 蔚來](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NIO.SG.md) - [09866.HK - 蔚來-SW](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/09866.HK.md) - [QS.US - QuantumScape](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QS.US.md) - [NIO.US - 蔚來](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NIO.US.md) - [DRIV.US - 自動駕駛和電動汽車 ETF - GlobalX](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DRIV.US.md) - [IDRV.US - 自動駕駛電動車與技術 ETF - iShares](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IDRV.US.md) - [KARS.US - 電動車&未來交通指數 ETF - KraneShares](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/KARS.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 研究警報：CFRA 維持對 Copart 公司股票的強力買入評級 | CFRA 對 Copart, Inc.（CPRT）維持強烈買入的意見，儘管將其 12 個月目標價下調至 50 美元，並調整了 2026 財年和 2027 財年的每股收益預期。分析師指出，儘管收益令人失望且市場環境嚴峻，但 CPRT 的強大資 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276471562.md) | | Nio 再次刷新單日換電服務記錄 | 蔚來汽車於 2 月 19 日創下了電池更換服務的單日新紀錄，完成了 165,898 次更換。這一成就標誌着在中國春節的高峰出行期間五天內的第三個紀錄。蔚來在中國運營着 3,750 個電池更換站，其中 1,022 個位於高速公路上，連接 55 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276405649.md) | | 中金公司重申對蔚來汽車 A 類股票（9866）的買入評級 | 中金公司分析師昨日對蔚來汽車（NIO Inc. 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