---
title: "Key Macro Chart: When Will the Disconnect Between Inventory Signals and Oil Prices End? (2024/10/18)"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/217259407.md"
description: "This report analyzes the dynamics of the silver and crude oil markets. Silver is approaching a key resistance level near $32.50, which may be broken through. Despite record-breaking US oil production, analysts point out that the data may not be accurate, and actual production levels may differ. EIA crude oil inventory data shows a decrease of 27 million barrels in total liquid inventories, with the gap between the three major US inventory data and the 2016-19 average reaching the largest in 7 months. Seasonal inventories have dropped to the lowest level in 8 years, with a 2.8% increase in four-week average demand"
datetime: "2024-10-18T14:49:13.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/217259407.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/217259407.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/217259407.md)
---

> 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/217259407.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/217259407.md)


# Key Macro Chart: When Will the Disconnect Between Inventory Signals and Oil Prices End? (2024/10/18)

## Silver Breakthrough Imminent

Analyst: Silver is once again approaching the key resistance level of $32.50. **With gold breaking through the consolidation range to achieve a historic high, the possibility of silver breaking through is even greater.**

## U.S. Oil Production "Moisture"

Analyst: Many are discussing the EIA's U.S. weekly crude oil production data hitting a "new record" (13.5 million barrels per day). However, I want to remind everyone: the weekly crude oil production data is known to not be entirely accurate. The deep blue line in the chart represents monthly data, while the light blue line represents weekly data. At best, it is just a forecast— **U.S. production "may" further increase, but this is not confirmed.**

## Inventory Level Signal

HFI Research: Analyzing the past 4 EIA crude oil inventory reports, total liquid inventories including SPR have decreased by approximately 27 million barrels.

## Inventory Level Signal II

According to the data in the chart, the gap between the three major U.S. inventory data (crude oil + gasoline + distillate inventories) and the 2016-2019 average has reached the largest in 7 months (indicated by the yellow arrow). Simultaneously, seasonal inventory levels have dropped to the lowest in at least 8 years, while four-week average demand has increased by 2.8%. This may go against the mainstream view— but **it is definitely not a bearish signal.**

\-------

_The full text of the "Must-See Macro Charts" series is exclusively updated on Star Planet, where researcher Lexie selects "divine charts" shared by thousands of Wall Street big shots daily for you. **Scan the code to unlock all the content of this issue, enjoy the rights to participate in Star Planet for a year, and browse through macro strategic analysis, professional trader sharing, key data outlook, and other series content.**_

## 相關資訊與研究

- [5 Simple ETFs to Buy With $1,000 and Hold for a Lifetime](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281345615.md)
- [Warren Buffett Admits He Sold Apple Too Early, Eyes Future Buying But Not Yet](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281336451.md)
- [Warren Buffett teams up with NBA superstar Stephen Curry for charity lunch, reviving iconic auction](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281182480.md)
- [BUZZ-Street View: Nike's turnaround remains work in progress](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281331333.md)
- [GRAPHIC-Apple's 50-year journey from garage to tech titan](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281342951.md)