---
title: "South Korean think tank: Trump's tariff policy will lead to a contraction in the South Korean economy"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/218429936.md"
description: "A think tank under the South Korean government stated that if Trump returns to the White House and raises tariffs on trade partners, the South Korean economy may shrink. According to a research report released by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) on Thursday, if Trump wins the U.S. presidential election next week and fulfills his promise to impose the highest level of universal tariffs, South Korea's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will shrink by about 0.67%, and exports will decrease by $44.8 billion. South Korea is one of the countries most reliant on export trade, with its enterprises widely embedded in various supply chains ranging from semiconductors and automobiles to petrochemical products. South Korean government officials have been preparing contingency plans for two possible outcomes of the presidential election next week. As unfavorable factors in South Korea's current trade situation are increasing, KIEP's research report adds gloom to South Korea's economic outlook for next year. Due to a decline in actual exports, South Korea's GDP barely grew quarter-on-quarter last quarter, prompting the Bank of Korea to consider lowering its annual growth forecast. The research report stated that if South Korea is excluded from the targets of the U.S. tariff increases, the South Korean economy could still grow by 0.24%, and demand for South Korean products would increase. However, the report noted that the likelihood of this happening is very low"
datetime: "2024-10-31T06:32:05.000Z"
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  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/218429936.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/218429936.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/218429936.md)
---

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# South Korean think tank: Trump's tariff policy will lead to a contraction in the South Korean economy

The Zhitong Finance APP learned that **a think tank under the South Korean government stated that if Trump returns to the White House and raises tariffs on trade partners, the South Korean economy may shrink.** According to a research report released by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) on Thursday, if Trump wins next week's U.S. presidential election and fulfills his promise to impose the highest level of universal tariffs, South Korea's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will shrink by about 0.67%, and exports will decrease by $44.8 billion.

![21.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20241031/1730355964401262.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

South Korea is one of the countries most reliant on export trade, with its enterprises widely embedded in various supply chains ranging from semiconductors and automobiles to petrochemical products. South Korean government officials have been preparing contingency plans for the two possible outcomes of the presidential election next week.

As unfavorable factors in South Korea's trade are increasing, KIEP's research report adds gloom to the country's economic outlook for next year. Due to a decline in actual exports, South Korea's GDP barely grew quarter-on-quarter last quarter, prompting the South Korean central bank to consider lowering its annual growth forecast.

The research report stated that if South Korea is excluded from the targets of the U.S. tariff increases, the South Korean economy could still grow by 0.24%, and demand for South Korean products would increase. However, the report noted that the likelihood of this happening is very low

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