---
title: "Trump's \"big gift\" may be overestimated, and the rebound of the U.S. stock market has already decoupled from the fundamentals?"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/219521151.md"
description: "American economist David Rosenberg pointed out that the rebound of the U.S. stock market after Trump's victory is disconnected from the fundamentals, especially the neglect of the \"zombie company\" phenomenon. The report shows that about 2,000 listed companies in the U.S. are \"zombie companies,\" an increase of 30% compared to ten years ago. Rosenberg warned that the current market optimism may be unrealistic, as the Republican Party's slim majority in the House of Representatives makes hopes for tax cuts and deregulation bleak. Other analysts also believe that the stock market bubble may lead investors to face dismal returns"
datetime: "2024-11-13T02:28:36.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/219521151.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/219521151.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/219521151.md)
---

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# Trump's "big gift" may be overestimated, and the rebound of the U.S. stock market has already decoupled from the fundamentals?

Top American economist David Rosenberg stated that the stock market rebound driven by Trump's victory seems increasingly disconnected from reality.

In the week following Trump's win for a second presidential term, major U.S. stock indices reached new highs. However, the founder of Rosenberg Research expressed concerns about this market rebound.

In a report to clients on Tuesday, Rosenberg stated that **the surge in U.S. stocks ignores key signs of weakness in American businesses**. He specifically pointed out **"zombie companies."**

This term refers to companies burdened with high debt that cannot generate enough income to cover their interest expenses, and their numbers have increased over the past decade.

An analysis by the Associated Press found that by 2023, approximately 7,000 publicly listed companies worldwide were identified as "zombie companies," with about 2,000 in the United States. This is about 30% higher than the number of zombie companies recorded in the U.S. a decade ago.

Rosenberg indicated that this trend is a worrying signal for the credit market, as many small-cap stocks have already joined the ranks of "zombie companies."

He said, "The concerning phenomenon of 'zombie companies' has resurfaced. Among the 3,000 constituent companies in the Russell 3000 index, about 600 are now classified as 'zombie companies'—this is about 50% more than before the global financial crisis."

"This clearly indicates that the current optimism is disconnected from reality and is based on hopes for the new government to reduce regulation and taxes. However, given the Republicans' slim majority in the House and both parties being fiscally conservative, this seems unlikely from our perspective," Rosenberg added.

Other market forecasters warned that the rebound driven by Trump's election victory may ultimately fade, especially considering the already high stock valuations. Bill Smead, Chief Investment Officer of Smead Capital Management, stated that **the "Trump effect" is pushing the stock market bubble to extremes, potentially trapping investors in years of low returns.**

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