---
title: "The economic outlook is bleak, and European Central Bank officials collectively adopt a dovish stance to soothe the market, indicating that interest rate cuts next year will exceed 100 basis points!"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/222272594.md"
description: "European Central Bank official De Guindos stated that a further reduction in borrowing costs is expected in 2025, and investors' expectations for interest rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points are reasonable. Although no specific interest rate trajectory has been committed to, the market's predictions for rate cuts are optimistic. The eurozone's economic growth forecast has been revised down to 1.1%, and industrial production is flat, indicating a poor economic outlook. Policymakers expect to lower interest rates by another 25 basis points in future meetings, with potentially larger cuts in emergency situations"
datetime: "2024-12-13T11:30:03.000Z"
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  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/222272594.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/222272594.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/222272594.md)
---

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# The economic outlook is bleak, and European Central Bank officials collectively adopt a dovish stance to soothe the market, indicating that interest rate cuts next year will exceed 100 basis points!

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, on Friday local time, François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council and Governor of the Bank of France, stated that the European Central Bank will further lower borrowing costs in 2025, and investors' bets on interest rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points seem reasonable.

De Galhau said, "There will be more rate cuts next year, and the cuts will not be just once." He mentioned that although the European Central Bank has not pre-committed to a specific interest rate trajectory, "we are quite satisfied with the predictions for the financial markets."

By the end of next year, the swap market expects a rate cut of about 120 basis points.

![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20241213/1734086807194226.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

The European Central Bank lowers inflation and growth forecasts

The day before De Galhau's remarks, European Central Bank officials, concerned about the deteriorating economic outlook for the eurozone, lowered borrowing costs for the fourth time this year and the third consecutive time. They also removed wording about maintaining restrictive monetary policy, suggesting that deposit rates could be further adjusted from the current level of 3% in 2025.

The European Central Bank has downgraded its economic growth forecast for the region, predicting that the growth rate will only be 1.1% next year. This forecast does not even account for the potential drag from Trump's trade policies in the U.S. or the political turmoil in Germany and France.

Data released on Friday showed that industrial production in the eurozone was flat in October, which is an ominous sign for the last quarter of 2024. The German central bank also made a pessimistic forecast, believing that the region's largest economy will see little growth after contracting again this year, with almost no growth expected by 2025.

**Bank of Slovenia Governor Boštjan Vasle stated in a statement on Friday: "Due to the difficult conditions in manufacturing and weak export momentum, eurozone economic growth will temporarily slow down in the short term, but will strengthen in the coming years."**

Officials familiar with policymakers' thoughts indicated that decision-makers expect to lower rates by another 25 basis points in the next meetings in January and March. They noted that in emergency situations, a larger cut of half a percentage point remains an option.

The Governor of the Bank of France stated that the European Central Bank can take three actions: scale, communication, and pace. "We can play all three keys of the piano simultaneously; we have been doing this so far, and we can do it next year as well."

De Galhau mentioned that the current level of interest rates at the European Central Bank is still well above the neutral level, which neither restricts nor eases rates, adding that the expected interest rate range is between 1.7% and 2.5%. "To know exactly where we are in that range, some theoretical debate is still needed, but there is still room."

Earlier on Friday, **Madis Müller, Governor of the Bank of Estonia, stated that given the weak economic growth, interest rates remain relatively high. He said that the current level of interest rates has a certain obstructive effect on economic development.**

**The Governor of the Bank of Spain also expects that borrowing costs will further decrease in the future, and the Governor of the Austrian central bank shares the same view, stating that "it is clear that interest rates will further decline."** \*\*

The Governor of the Bank of Spain stated in an interview: "If everything goes smoothly, and if we continue to approach the European Central Bank's mid-term inflation target of 2%, then it would be logical to lower interest rates again at the next meeting. The European economy is not very vibrant, which is a challenge."

**The Governor of the Bank of Latvia, Martins Kazaks, stated that if this weak trend further deteriorates, there may be reason to increase the rate of interest rate cuts.**

Although Latvian officials believe that a gradual approach is appropriate, he warned that shocks such as geopolitical issues and war could bring "new momentum" to inflation.

"If necessary, the rate cut could be greater than 0.25%," Kazaks said. "The current approach—based on data and the analysis/decision-making of successive meetings—is very suitable for this situation."

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