---
title: "The short-term effects of export grabbing and consumer subsidies are 明显， with strong performance in the European service industry offsetting weak manufacturing, while China enters a policy vacuum period---1217 Macro Dehydration"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/222582292.md"
description: "In November, industrial production showed a slight strengthening, driven by the \"export rush\" effect, with moderate improvement on the demand side and real estate sales returning to positive year-on-year growth. The growth rate of retail sales fell back due to the preemptive impact of the \"Double Eleven\" shopping festival, while retail sales of home appliances and automobiles maintained strong growth. The Eurozone composite PMI unexpectedly rose, with improvements in service sector activity and a deterioration in manufacturing output. Actual GDP growth is expected to achieve the target of \"around 5.0%.\" A policy vacuum may occur in the next two months, with monetary policy expected to support the economy, and cuts in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates anticipated in the first quarter"
datetime: "2024-12-17T16:08:42.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/222582292.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/222582292.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/222582292.md)
---

> 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/222582292.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/222582292.md)


# The short-term effects of export grabbing and consumer subsidies are 明显， with strong performance in the European service industry offsetting weak manufacturing, while China enters a policy vacuum period---1217 Macro Dehydration

-   Industrial production showed a slight improvement in November, possibly driven by the "export rush" effect, with demand continuing to improve moderately. Real estate sales returned to positive year-on-year growth, but the growth rate of retail sales may have declined due to the preemptive impact of the "Double Eleven" shopping festival. Retail in home appliances and automobiles still maintained strong growth, reflecting that the "trade-in" policy continues to provide support.
    
-   The Eurozone composite PMI unexpectedly rose at the end of the year, but still remains below 50, indicating a significant improvement in service sector activity, returning to the expansion zone, while manufacturing output further deteriorated, consistent with the ongoing drag from rising trade policy uncertainty.
    
-   Actual GDP growth is still expected to achieve this year's target of "around 5.0%." Retail sales fell due to weakened "Double Eleven" promotions and the expiration of trade-in subsidies. Real estate sales achieved year-on-year growth for the first time since mid-2023. Looking ahead, policy support remains the most important driving force for China's economy and market. The next two months may be a policy vacuum period. It is expected that during this period, monetary policy will mainly support the economy, with potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions possibly occurring as early as the first quarter

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