---
title: "What is the U.S. stock market betting on as it stops falling on the eve of April 2?"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/234129533.md"
description: "The market believes that Trump will not adhere to any tariff policies that would severely hinder economic growth; it thinks that unless more obvious signs of economic recession are seen, it will not bet on recession risks; it believes that more information about Trump's tariff plans will reduce market uncertainty"
datetime: "2025-04-02T01:03:05.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/234129533.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/234129533.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/234129533.md)
---

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# What is the U.S. stock market betting on as it stops falling on the eve of April 2?

"The deadline of April 2" is approaching, and the stable performance of the U.S. stock market seems to indicate that investors are betting that clear trade policies will help stabilize the market.

Overnight, major U.S. stock indices have retreated, but have not yet reached the level expected during an economic downturn. Although the S&P 500 index has fallen about 8% from the historical high set in February, it has rebounded in the past two days, continuing the trend of recovery from the lows a few weeks ago.

Investors remain relatively optimistic for several reasons:

> -   **They believe Trump will not insist on any tariff policies that would severely hinder economic growth.**
>     
> -   **They think they will not bet on recession risks unless they see more obvious signs of economic downturn.**
>     
> -   **They believe that more information about Trump's tariff plans will reduce market uncertainty.**
>     

It is worth noting that while the market shows optimistic sentiment, major Wall Street firms still express concerns. Even as more tariff information becomes clearer, the market acknowledges that it is still difficult to grasp the true policy intentions of the Trump administration, with some analysts suggesting that the "uncertainty" of tariffs may become a bargaining chip for Trump's team.

In this context, "hard data" still shows resilience, based on investors' "cautious optimism," which is gradually spreading to the stock and bond markets, providing some support.

## Goldman Sachs Raises Recession Risk for the Next 12 Months; Morgan Stanley Bets "April 2 May Not Bring Certainty"

Jim Caron, Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Portfolio Solutions Group, candidly stated: "I know we will face tariffs, and this game is something Wall Street is very good at—we need to calculate cash flows under these tariff scenarios and the possible range of outcomes."

**Currently, some analysts believe investors are underestimating the threat posed by tariffs.**

Goldman Sachs analysts recently predicted that the effective tariff rate in the U.S. will rise by 15 percentage points this year, which will have a tax-like impact on consumers, thereby reducing economic growth by more than a percentage point. **The firm now estimates the probability of a recession occurring in the next 12 months at 35%, up from the previous forecast of 20%.**

Previously, Morgan Stanley analysis suggested that April 2 may not bring the certainty the market expects, advising attention to two key questions: whether the announcement can clarify tariff policies, turning them from unknown to known; and whether the increase in tariffs will further worsen the economic outlook.

## Market Dilemma: What Does Trump Really Want?

**A significant dilemma facing investors is that they still do not understand Trump's true intentions regarding tariffs.**If tariffs are indeed aimed at raising significant revenue and encouraging manufacturers to establish production bases in the U.S., then import tariffs need to be large-scale and long-term. However, if the goal is to extract concessions from other countries, tariffs may only be temporary.

Most investors acknowledge that Trump's commitment to tariffs is much stronger than Wall Street generally assumed at the beginning of the year. He has imposed significant tariffs on goods including steel and aluminum, and has disrupted the market by refusing to rule out the possibility of an economic recession this year.

However, Trump has also twice backed down from imposing broader tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. He has also encouraged investors by discussing a "flexible" and "tolerant" approach towards other countries.

## Has the "Peak of Uncertainty" Passed? Not Necessarily

The "uncertainty of tariffs" itself may be more destructive than the tariffs, potentially harming the economy by causing businesses to delay investments.

**While some hope that the period of "peak uncertainty" has passed, very few investors expect to gain complete transparency in the short term.** The actions Trump is expected to take will likely trigger a turbulent period filled with negotiations, retaliation, and lobbying from various countries and businesses.

Kevin Gordon, Senior Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, stated, "We know that, given the nature of the White House, adjustments are continuing almost daily."

## Economic Data Still Shows Resilience

For many, the data performance is encouraging. While several surveys indicate a significant decline in consumer and business confidence, **the "hard data" suggests that their actual spending has decreased only moderately, which has boosted market sentiment in recent weeks.**

According to the latest report, consumer spending rose 0.4% in February, slightly below economists' expectations, but a rebound from a 0.3% decline in January (when cold weather suppressed demand). The latest employment report for February shows that job growth remains robust, with the unemployment rate still hovering at a low level above 4%.

This cautious optimism has extended beyond the stock market. The extra yield investors demand for holding low-rated corporate bonds instead of government bonds has risen in recent weeks. However, these spreads remain below last year's peak, indicating limited concern in the market about a significant rise in default rates (which is typically associated with economic recessions).

Colleen Cunniffe, Co-Head of Global Credit Research at Vanguard, stated that the relative stability of the credit bond market mainly reflects the current economic fundamentals. While there are some signs of increased pressure among low-income households, "overall, consumers are still in fairly good shape."

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