---
title: "Morgan Stanley's bold prediction: Google Cloud's revenue may surge by over 50% in 2026"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/264574337.md"
description: "Morgan Stanley analysts predict that Google Cloud's revenue could grow by more than 50% by 2026. Analyst Brian Novak stated that the updated backlog model for undelivered orders shows that Google Cloud's revenue growth trajectory is better than market expectations. Company-disclosed data indicates that of the $158 billion in undelivered orders for the third quarter of 2025, approximately 55% will be recognized as revenue in the next two years. The on-demand business is expected to grow by 29% and 37% in 2023 and 2024, respectively"
datetime: "2025-11-06T07:03:03.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/264574337.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/264574337.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/264574337.md)
---

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# Morgan Stanley's bold prediction: Google Cloud's revenue may surge by over 50% in 2026

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Google Cloud (GOOGL.US) is expected to experience explosive growth next year, with Morgan Stanley analysts predicting that the revenue growth for this division could exceed 50% by 2026.

In a recent report, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Novak informed investors that the bank's updated backlog model "outlines a path for Google Cloud's revenue growth to exceed 50% in 2026," indicating "an upward adjustment potential in the mid-single digits compared to our previous expectations, and over 15% compared to the market's general expectations."

Novak pointed out that the bank still views Google Cloud as "the core driver of Alphabet's valuation multiple expansion and AI-driven outperformance."

The bank's new model breaks down Google Cloud's revenue into contributions from the backlog of unfulfilled orders and contributions from on-demand workloads.

The company recently disclosed that "of the $158 billion in unfulfilled orders as of the third quarter of 2025, approximately 55% is expected to be recognized as revenue within the next two years."

Historically, these unfulfilled orders typically contribute "45%-50% of Google Cloud's revenue," with the remainder coming from on-demand workloads. Morgan Stanley stated that the on-demand business is expected to grow by "29%/37% year-on-year in 2023/2024," and has grown by approximately 25% year-to-date in 2025.

Based on these trends, Morgan Stanley's sensitivity analysis shows that if Google adds a net of over $50 billion in unfulfilled orders in 2026, and the on-demand business grows by 15% or more, the total revenue growth for the cloud business could exceed 50%.

Novak stated that even under more conservative assumptions—"25% year-on-year growth in the on-demand business" and "an increase of $20 billion in unfulfilled orders"—the model still supports expectations of over 50% growth

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