---
title: "Morgan Stanley downgraded JD.com’s investment rating to \"Underweight,\" anticipating the aftereffects of the trade-in subsidy to emerge"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/265090401.md"
description: "Morgan Stanley downgraded JD.com's investment rating from \"In Line with Market\" to \"Underweight,\" with a target price of $28. The firm pointed out that JD.com benefited from the government's trade-in subsidies, but the effectiveness of the policy is diminishing. It is expected that revenue growth will slow to 5.6% in the fourth quarter, with potential declines in sales of home appliances and electronics. Revenue growth is expected to further slow to 4.4% next year. The company's operating leverage will decrease over the next 12 months, and long-term profit margins and return on equity will be dragged down by investments in new businesses. It is anticipated that the non-GAAP net profit margin will decline, and return on equity will drop from 20.3% to 12.6%"
datetime: "2025-11-10T07:36:19.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/265090401.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/265090401.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/265090401.md)
---

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# Morgan Stanley downgraded JD.com’s investment rating to "Underweight," anticipating the aftereffects of the trade-in subsidy to emerge

Morgan Stanley downgraded its investment rating on JD.com (JD.US) from "Equal Weight" to "Underweight," with a target price of $28 for American Depositary Receipts.

The firm indicated that compared to Alibaba (09988.HK)(BABA.US) and Pinduoduo (PDD.US), JD.com benefits the most from the government's trade-in subsidy policy, but the effectiveness of the policy is diminishing and has turned into a high base since last quarter. It expects JD.com's revenue growth in the fourth quarter to slow to 5.6% year-on-year, with sales of home appliances and electronics potentially declining year-on-year, and revenue growth next year is expected to further slow to 4.4%. This situation will reduce the company's operating leverage over the next 12 months, and ongoing investments in new businesses will also drag down long-term profit margins and return on equity.

The firm expects the company's non-GAAP net profit margin to decrease by 2.3% to 2.5% from this year to 2030, and the return on equity is expected to structurally decline from 20.3% last year to 12.6% by 2030. The firm believes that the only way to support JD.com's valuation level is to accelerate shareholder returns, but ongoing investments in new businesses may weaken the ability to increase shareholder returns, leading to further valuation downgrades. Artificial intelligence is also unlikely to become a transformative growth driver for the company's e-commerce business, as the company focuses on vertical integration and operational efficiency, with relatively less emphasis on building an ecosystem compared to its peers

### 相關股票

- [JD.com (JD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JD.US.md)
- [JD-SW (09618.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/09618.HK.md)

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