---
title: "The rhetoric of \"selling America\" is refuted by real data! As U.S. Treasury bonds stage a major comeback, overseas holdings hover at historical highs"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/266447442.md"
description: "In September, the scale of U.S. Treasury bonds held by foreign countries slightly declined but remained close to the historical high, reaching USD 9.25 trillion. Despite the rhetoric of \"selling America,\" foreign investors continued to buy when U.S. bond prices rose. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and declining borrowing costs have driven up investment returns on U.S. bonds. The UK reduced its holdings, while Japan's holdings rose to a three-year high. The investment returns in the U.S. bond market this year are close to 7%, marking the best year since 2020"
datetime: "2025-11-18T23:53:02.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/266447442.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/266447442.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/266447442.md)
---

> 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/266447442.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/266447442.md)


# The rhetoric of "selling America" is refuted by real data! As U.S. Treasury bonds stage a major comeback, overseas holdings hover at historical highs

According to the latest U.S. Treasury holdings data released after the U.S. government ended its shutdown, the scale of U.S. Treasury bonds held by foreign countries remained close to historical highs in September. This indicates that after reaching a new historical peak in August, the overall holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by foreign countries have only slightly declined. The latest overseas holdings of U.S. Treasuries highlight that those foreign sovereign financial institutions and large private investment firms, which publicly claim to "sell off America" and that "the American exception is in the process of collapse," are actually taking advantage of the rising period of U.S. Treasury prices catalyzed by interest rate cut expectations to aggressively buy U.S. Treasury assets or seize the opportunity to buy heavily when yields rebound.

The "term premium" has continued to significantly ease, coupled with the rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts leading to lower borrowing costs. As a result, the investment returns on U.S. Treasuries continue to rise, and so far, the most pessimistic economic forecasts, especially regarding inflation, have largely failed to materialize. In fact, the U.S. Treasury trading market, which has a scale of $30 trillion, remains hot, with investment returns measured by U.S. Treasury price fluctuations approaching 7% this year, heading towards the best year for U.S. Treasury investments since 2020.

Specific details show that the second-largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, the United Kingdom, chose to reduce its holdings in September, while Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasuries rose to the highest level in over three years.

In September, overseas investment institutions collectively held approximately $9.25 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, compared to $9.26 trillion in the previous month, which was the historical peak. It is noteworthy that changes in holdings are influenced by the net buying or selling of major institutions, as well as the overall valuation changes of U.S. Treasuries. However, the impact of valuation changes on the fluctuations in holdings by various countries is relatively small. The "Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index," which measures the price trends of U.S. Treasuries, recorded increases in both August and September.

![1763509359.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20251119/1763509365383948.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

Due to the previous month-long "government shutdown" of the U.S. federal government, which completely disrupted the data release schedule, the U.S. Treasury Department released the relevant overseas U.S. Treasury holdings data for both August and September on Tuesday local time to catch up with the delayed publication schedule.

**Investment institutions with inconsistent statements and actions**

As the timeline just entered 2025, bond investors indeed had many reasons to hold a pessimistic view of the U.S. Treasury market. At that time, U.S. Treasury yields, especially the long-term yields of 10 years and above, were continuously soaring, primarily due to market expectations that the Trump administration's commitments to boost economic growth and tax cuts would significantly expand the deficit, necessitating a larger scale of long-term U.S. Treasury issuance, and potentially making many core consumer goods more expensive In April, the radical tariffs introduced by Trump triggered a trade war, leading to strong concerns among foreign investors about temporarily avoiding all U.S. assets.

As a result, so far this year, many large investment institutions in the market have been worried that a series of trade and foreign policy measures by President Trump could significantly undermine the international community's confidence in holding U.S. assets. The data on U.S. Treasury holdings by foreign countries has been a focal point in the market. Some senior analysts in financial markets have even pointed out that the surge in gold prices is seen as one of the significant signals of a global effort to achieve asset allocation "de-dollarization" and that global funds are preparing for the "collapse of American exceptionalism."

Since Donald Trump returned to the White House and regained the presidency, the core preferred status of the U.S. in the global bond market has been repeatedly questioned. From comprehensive reciprocal tariff policies and tax cuts to massive budget deficits, and Trump's ongoing attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve, many top investment institutions on Wall Street have been sounding almost the same ominous alarm: "American exceptionalism" is coming to an end, "sell all U.S. assets," especially U.S. Treasury assets facing enormous budget deficit pressures and the potential inflation crisis caused by aggressive inflation.

However, the latest data on U.S. Treasury holdings by overseas institutions proves that with the Federal Reserve starting a new round of interest rate cuts, the economy moving towards a soft landing at a "moderate slowdown" pace, and ongoing relief of inflation pressures, multiple favorable factors have combined to drive a comprehensive rise in the U.S. Treasury market. As U.S. Treasuries rebound significantly in the second half of the year, leading the global bond market, the U.S. government debt market has still solidified its absolute dominant position as the most trusted sovereign debt asset in the world.

The Federal Reserve has announced two interest rate cuts this year and may cut rates further in 2026; despite the slowdown in non-farm employment growth and consumer spending, there are no signs of an economic recession that could threaten corporate balance sheets; although there are concerns that Trump's tariff policies may push up prices, inflation pressures continue to ease, all of which have become important arguments for global funds returning to U.S. Treasuries in the second half of the year.

![1763509338(1).png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20251119/1763509342442098.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

Equally important is that the U.S. still appears to be a "less bad" investment choice in the external world, often referred to as the "cleanest dirty shirt." It is not the only country among the G7 with expanding debt and deficits or dysfunctional government functions. Central banks in other major developed countries are either nearing the end of their rate-cutting cycles or (as in the case of Japan) may raise rates. The U.S. remains, by far, the largest and most liquid global fixed income asset market.

"When you look at other alternative options, they also have their own set of challenges," said Hovhannisyan, a fixed income fund manager at TCW. "The analogy of 'the cleanest dirty shirt' is very, very apt, and there isn't a very clear high liquidity alternative." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset, in an interview with U.S. media on October 23, repeatedly refuted anxieties regarding "Sell America" and "the collapse of American exceptionalism" concerning U.S. assets. He stated at the time that there has been "very strong interest from foreign countries in purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds" recently. "Our Treasury auctions have never been as robust as they are now, especially with enthusiastic participation from overseas buyers."

**Japan's Buying Frenzy, UK and China Reduce U.S. Treasury Holdings**

Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, with its holdings significantly increasing by about $9 billion in September to $1.19 trillion—this is the highest level since August 2022.

"What impresses me the most is Japan," said Lee Ferridge, a senior strategist at State Street Bank. "This large-scale buying of U.S. Treasury bonds may be a key factor in the continued weakening of the yen and may indicate that Japanese investors are concerned about Japanese government bonds amid the depreciation of their own currency and the sustained rise in long-term bond yields."

In recent months, the yen has depreciated significantly against the dollar. On Tuesday, the yen fell to its weakest level against the dollar since February. This year, among the G10 sovereign currencies, the yen has also been the worst-performing sovereign currency.

The UK is the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, with its holdings decreasing by about $39.3 billion to $865 billion.

China is the third-largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, with its holdings slightly declining by about $500 million in September to $700.5 billion. According to some market analysts, Belgium's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds include a portion from Chinese custodial accounts, with Belgium's holdings increasing by about $12.5 billion in September to $466.8 billion.

"I still do not see any signs that foreign investment institutions are moving away from core U.S. assets," said Alex Cohen, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America. "The U.S. remains a very attractive investment destination."

## 相關資訊與研究

- [US Treasury yield extend fall, 10-year yield last down 2.8 bps at 4.293%; two-year yield slips 1.7 bps at 3.786%](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281544605.md)
- [US Treasury yields fall as growth risks appear on investors’ radars](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280963300.md)
- [National Bank Comments on Government of Canada Bonds Vs. U.S. Treasuries](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281370007.md)
- [Bondbloxx Bloomberg three year target duration US Treasury ETF declares monthly distribution of $0.1676](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281408583.md)
- [US Treasury two-year yield hits session high after ISM report; last up 1.4 bps at 3.813%](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281384563.md)