--- title: "According to \"The Big Bank\" research, BOC HONG KONG's exposure to Vanke is estimated to be HKD 10 billion to HKD 14 billion, with the baseline scenario predicting a downgrade to a Level 3 loan next year" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/268012093.md" description: "HSBC's research report indicates that BOC Hong Kong's loan exposure to Vanke may be between HKD 10 billion and HKD 14 billion, facing higher credit costs. The target price has been lowered from HKD 45.2 to HKD 43.2. After Vanke postponed the bond repayment deadline, bond prices plummeted. HSBC believes that the risk of BOC Hong Kong downgrading Vanke to a Stage 3 loan has increased, but the likelihood of a downgrade before the end of 2025 is relatively low. The baseline scenario is a downgrade in 2026, at which point credit cost provisions will significantly increase" datetime: "2025-12-01T03:15:45.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/268012093.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/268012093.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/268012093.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/268012093.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/268012093.md) # According to "The Big Bank" research, BOC HONG KONG's exposure to Vanke is estimated to be HKD 10 billion to HKD 14 billion, with the baseline scenario predicting a downgrade to a Level 3 loan next year HSBC Research published a report indicating that BOC Hong Kong (02388.HK) may have a significant exposure to Vanke (02202.HK), thus facing higher credit costs. HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating for BOC Hong Kong, with the target price lowered from HKD 45.2 to HKD 43.2. At the end of last month, Vanke proposed to postpone the repayment deadline for a domestic bond principal of RMB 2 billion, which was originally due on December 15. Following the announcement, the prices of Vanke's domestic and overseas bonds fell sharply. HSBC believes that the latest developments mean that the risk of BOC Hong Kong downgrading Vanke to Stage 3 loans has significantly increased, indicating that credit impairment has occurred. The report states that as of the second quarter of 2025, BOC Hong Kong's commercial real estate loan balance in mainland China was HKD 77.6 billion, with state-owned enterprises and private enterprises accounting for 86% and 14%, respectively. Considering Vanke's large scale and BOC Hong Kong's consistent preference for lending to state-owned developers, it is estimated that BOC Hong Kong's exposure to Vanke may range between HKD 10 billion and HKD 14 billion, accounting for approximately 0.6% to 0.8% of its total loan balance. HSBC believes that before the end of 2025, the likelihood of BOC Hong Kong downgrading Vanke's loan to Stage 3 is low, mainly because there is still a 30-day grace period for the domestic bond. The situation is still evolving rapidly, so multiple scenarios are outlined, with the base case being that Vanke's loan will officially be classified as Stage 3 in 2026, which will lead to a significant increase in BOC Hong Kong's corresponding credit cost provisions ### 相關股票 - [Vanke (000002.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/000002.CN.md) - [CHINA VANKE (02202.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/02202.HK.md) - [BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/02388.HK.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [BOC Hong Kong Limited Reports Earnings Results for the Full Year Ended December 31, 2025](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281013922.md) - [Huatai Securities Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) (BNKHF)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281318016.md) - [China Vanke Posts 2025 Loss, Skips Dividend as Auditor Flags Going-Concern Risk](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281269353.md) - [What Zhipu and MiniMax’s first post-IPO earnings say about the 2 AI start-ups](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281474299.md) - [Mininglamp Technology Class A (2718): New Buy Recommendation for This Technology Giant](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281607516.md)