--- title: "ZCash drops 53% in two weeks – Is this the end of an explosive cycle?" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/268260396.md" description: "ZCash experienced a dramatic 53% price drop in two weeks, following a previous explosive rally. The decline is seen as a retracement phase, with technical indicators suggesting potential further losses. Key resistance is at $400-$420, while support at $315-$321 is under threat. A drop below $315 could signal more selling, with potential support at $197. Traders may maintain a long-term bullish outlook, but caution is advised amid Bitcoin's bearish transition." datetime: "2025-12-02T13:01:33.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/268260396.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/268260396.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/268260396.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/268260396.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/268260396.md) # ZCash drops 53% in two weeks – Is this the end of an explosive cycle? ZCash has been an extreme outlier in price performance among the relatively large-cap assets in the crypto market. Its run began in September, as the privacy narrative gathered steam. The rally intensified in October. Measured from September’s low at $38.69 to the November high of $750, the rally was a whopping 1,838.5%. This was an 18-fold return in under 10 weeks. The peak in the first week of November, combined with the market-wide sentiment slump and Bitcoin’s \[BTC\] loss of the $100k level, might have ended Zcash’s \[ZEC\] bull run. From a technical perspective, it can be argued that this was only a retracement phase. An AMBCrypto report from November stressed the importance of profit-taking at the 100% Fibonacci extension level. Those levels were plotted based on the previous cycle’s swing points. A 53% price drop in the past fortnight vindicated the earlier predictions. What can come next? ## Long-term structure vs. short-term bearishness Source: ZEC/USDT on TradingView The 1-day timeframe saw an internal shift towards bearishness. The higher low at $470 was breached nearly ten days ago. The recent downturn below the swing low at $424 highlighted the onset of the retracement phase. It also warned of a potential downtrend. However, the Fibonacci retracement levels of the current run supported the idea that the rally was not over. The 78.6% retracement level has not been breached yet. Source: ZEC/USDT on TradingView The hourly chart did not show potential for a sizeable bounce. Here, too, the structure was bearish. The $400-$420 region had an imbalance and can act as a supply zone. ## ZCash: Piecing together the technicals In both the timeframes, the MFI showed bears were in control. Momentum and capital flow were in favor of the sellers. The daily chart showed the MFI shift to bearishness in recent days, with a drop below 20. The hourly chart showed that ZCash was highly likely to experience more losses soon. The OBV was not in a sizeable slump on the daily chart, but it was sliding lower on the hourly timeframe. This supported the retracement phase argument. ## Key support and resistance levels The $400-$420 was a strong short-term resistance. The $315-$321 support is being defended, but is likely to be lost soon. A daily session close below $315 would be a signal to sell. A slide to the next Fibonacci retracement support at $197 can be expected. * * * ## Final Thoughts - _Traders can maintain a long-term bullish outlook, based on the Fibonacci retracement levels and the importance of the $200 level._ - _Investors must be careful holding on to ZEC at a time when Bitcoin seems to be transitioning to a bear market._ **Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion** ### 相關股票 - [BTC/HKD (BTCHKD.VAHK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BTCHKD.VAHK.md) - [BTC/USD (BTCUSD.VAHK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BTCUSD.VAHK.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Bitcoin whales define new trading range amid market shifts](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281623970.md) - [Metaplanet Corrects Q1 Bitcoin Revenue Figure to JPY 2.969 Billion](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281489639.md) - [Anthropic Could Go Public by October](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280811837.md) - [Metaplanet acquires 5,075 BTC, jumps to third largest bitcoin treasury company](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281496390.md) - [Strategy Pause In Bitcoin Buying Puts STRC Tax And Funding In Focus](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281500634.md)