---
title: "\"Bad data\" is \"good news\"? The market's probability of a rate cut in January rises to 30%"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/268499740.md"
description: "Overnight, the U.S. macro data performed poorly, with weak industrial capacity utilization, mixed service sector ISM data, and disappointing employment figures (including the largest loss of manufacturing jobs since the COVID-19 pandemic and significant job losses in small businesses according to ADP). This has boosted the market's dovish sentiment, making a rate cut in December almost certain, while the possibility of a rate cut in January has risen to over 30%"
datetime: "2025-12-03T23:51:03.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/268499740.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/268499740.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/268499740.md)
---

> 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/268499740.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/268499740.md)


# "Bad data" is "good news"? The market's probability of a rate cut in January rises to 30%

Overnight U.S. macro data performed poorly, with weak industrial capacity utilization, mixed services ISM data, and disappointing employment figures (including the largest loss of manufacturing jobs since the COVID-19 pandemic and significant job losses in small businesses according to ADP).

This boosted the market's dovish sentiment, making a rate cut in December a "done deal," while the likelihood of a rate cut in January rose to over 30%.

### 相關股票

- [Automatic Data Process (ADP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ADP.US.md)

## 相關資訊與研究

- [MORE US ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS: WITHIN SERVICES, TRADE/TRANSPORTATION/UTILITIES JOBS -58K; INFORMATION +16K IN MARCH FROM FEB.](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281366260.md)
- [ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 62,000 Jobs in March; Annual Pay was Up 4.5% | ADP Stock News](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281365809.md)
- [S&P Global's Services PMI Shows First Contraction in More Than Three Years](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281650175.md)
- [Private-Sector Job Growth Steady in March, per ADP](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281372605.md)
- [March Dallas Fed Service Sector Index -13.3 vs. -4.6 Expected, Prior -3.2 Reading](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281206289.md)