<p>要點：</p>
<ul>
<li>股票上漲 0.9%，貨幣持平</li>
<li>投資者關注洪都拉斯選舉和美委緊張局勢</li>
<li>巴西 Bovespa 指數突破 164,000 點</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Niket Nishant</p>
<p>拉丁美洲股票在週四延續漲勢，主要受到市場對美國聯邦儲備委員會即將降息的預期推動，同時投資者也關注區域內的重要動態。</p>
<p>MSCI 拉美股票指數（.MILA00000PUS）上漲 0.9%，達到近六年來的最高點，預計將延續三天的上漲趨勢。</p>
<p>一個針對區域貨幣的平行指數（.MILA00000CUS）在早盤上漲後略微回落，結束了因市場對下個月美國降息 25 個基點的高預期而持續八天的漲勢。</p>
<p>美國利率降低通常會削弱美元，並刺激對高收益資產的需求，包括許多拉丁美洲貨幣。</p>
<p>儘管 12 月通常是市場較為平淡的時期，但投資者仍在權衡多種因素，包括利率預期的變化、儘管有外交努力但烏克蘭持續的地緣政治緊張局勢，以及一系列地方政治和經濟動態。</p>
<p>在拉丁美洲，關注的焦點是洪都拉斯日益激烈的總統競選，保守派候選人 Nasry Asfura 得到美國總統唐納德·特朗普的支持，而中間派對手薩爾瓦多·納斯拉拉則指控總統選舉存在舞弊，因為 Asfura 在夜間以微弱優勢超過了他。</p>
<p>洪都拉斯以美元計價的債券在週四幾乎沒有變化。</p>
<p>巴西股票創下歷史新高</p>
<p>巴西 Bovespa 指數上漲 1.4%，首次突破 164,000 點，此前數據顯示第三季度經濟增速低於預期，提升了明年初降息的預期。雷亞爾對美元保持穩定。</p>
<p>“我們預計經濟將在 2026 年進一步放緩，且通脹將繼續下降。我們認為巴西中央銀行貨幣政策委員會（Copom）將在 1 月的會議上轉向降息，” Capital Economics 的分析師在一份報告中表示。</p>
<p>官方數據顯示，巴西 11 月份的貿易順差同比下降 13.4%，幾乎與經濟學家的預期一致。</p>
<p>與此同時，巴西國會議員 Gervasio Maia 提議在明年的財政目標中排除多達 100 億雷亞爾（19 億美元）用於國有企業的預算指導法案。</p>
<p>智利主要股票指數持平，當地比索上漲 0.1%。智利礦業巨頭 SQM 在籌集約 4.3 億美元的債券銷售後下跌 2.6%。</p>
<p>墨西哥股票和比索分別上漲 0.1% 和 0.3%。據 Politico 報道，特朗普可能在明年決定退出美墨加貿易協定，引用了美國貿易代表 Jamieson Greer 的説法。</p>
<p>在阿根廷，股票下跌 0.3%。比索上漲 0.86%，而大多數美元債券略有上漲。</p>
<p>彭博社週三報道稱，阿根廷官員開始為該國在 2026 年初重返國際債券市場做準備，引用了知情人士的説法。</p>
<p>國際貨幣基金組織表示，該國必須調整其貨幣和匯率政策，以建立儲備並重新獲得國際資本市場的准入。</p>
<p>哥倫比亞股票持平，比索對美元上漲 0.1%。</p>
<p>此外，投資者正在關注委內瑞拉的動態，因為特朗普與委內瑞拉總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅之間的激烈言辭。</p>
<p>美國對委內瑞拉的壓力不斷增加，包括對涉嫌販毒船隻的打擊和軍事行動的威脅。</p>
<p>主要拉丁美洲股票指數和貨幣：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>股票指數</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日變化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 新興市場 CBOE:EFS</td>
<td>1376.13</td>
<td>0.23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 拉美 (.MILA00000PUS)</td>
<td>2788.85</td>
<td>0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>巴西 Bovespa</td>
<td>164062.18</td>
<td>1.43</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥 IPC</td>
<td>63670.79</td>
<td>0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利 IPSA</td>
<td>10179.37</td>
<td>0.03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷 MerVal</td>
<td>3118995.85</td>
<td>-0.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥倫比亞 COLCAP</td>
<td>2107.44</td>
<td>0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>貨幣</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日變化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>巴西雷亞爾</td>
<td>5.3068</td>
<td>0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥比索</td>
<td>18.231</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利比索</td>
<td>917.3</td>
<td>0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥倫比亞比索</td>
<td>3794</td>
<td>-0.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>秘魯索爾</td>
<td>3.3596</td>
<td>0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷比索（銀行間）</td>
<td>1,441.0</td>
<td>0.86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷比索（平行市場）(ARSB=)</td>
<td>1,410.0</td>
<td>2.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

智利礦業化工

<p>拉丁美洲股票上漲 0.9%，因對美國聯邦儲備可能降息的樂觀情緒，而地區貨幣保持平穩。巴西的博維斯帕指數創下歷史新高，受到經濟放緩預期的推動。投資者正在關注洪都拉斯的總統選舉和美國與委內瑞拉之間的緊張關係。智利的 SQM 在債券發行後下跌，而墨西哥股票和比索略微上漲。阿根廷比索上漲，官員們正為 2026 年重新進入債券市場做準備。該地區主要股票指數和貨幣表現各異</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Stocks up 0.9%, currencies flat</li>
<li>Investors eye Honduras elections, US-Venezuela tensions</li>
<li>Brazil's Bovespa tops 164,000 points</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股票上漲 0.9%，貨幣持平</li>
<li>投資者關注洪都拉斯選舉和美委緊張局勢</li>
<li>巴西 Bovespa 指數突破 164,000 點</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Niket Nishant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Niket Nishant</p>
</div><p>Latin American stocks extended gains on Thursday, driven by growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates soon, while investors also focused on key regional developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拉丁美洲股票在週四延續漲勢，主要受到市場對美國聯邦儲備委員會即將降息的預期推動，同時投資者也關注區域內的重要動態。</p>
</div><p>MSCI's index of LatAm equities (.MILA00000PUS) climbed 0.9% to hit a near six-year high, on pace to extend its winning streak to a third day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 拉美股票指數（.MILA00000PUS）上漲 0.9%，達到近六年來的最高點，預計將延續三天的上漲趨勢。</p>
</div><p>A parallel index for regional currencies (.MILA00000CUS) gave up early gains to trade slightly lower on the day, following an eight-day winning streak driven by elevated bets on a quarter-point U.S. rate cut next month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個針對區域貨幣的平行指數（.MILA00000CUS）在早盤上漲後略微回落，結束了因市場對下個月美國降息 25 個基點的高預期而持續八天的漲勢。</p>
</div><p>Lower U.S. rates typically weaken the dollar and spur demand for higher-yielding assets, including many Latin American currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國利率降低通常會削弱美元，並刺激對高收益資產的需求，包括許多拉丁美洲貨幣。</p>
</div><p>Although December is usually a subdued period for markets, investors have been juggling several factors, including shifting rate-cut expectations, persistent geopolitical tensions in Ukraine despite diplomatic efforts, and a series of local political and economic developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 12 月通常是市場較為平淡的時期，但投資者仍在權衡多種因素，包括利率預期的變化、儘管有外交努力但烏克蘭持續的地緣政治緊張局勢，以及一系列地方政治和經濟動態。</p>
</div><p>In Latin America, attention is focused on an increasingly contentious presidential race in Honduras between conservative candidate Nasry Asfura, backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, and centrist rival Salvador Nasralla. Nasralla has alleged fraud in the presidential vote after Asfura pulled narrowly past him overnight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在拉丁美洲，關注的焦點是洪都拉斯日益激烈的總統競選，保守派候選人 Nasry Asfura 得到美國總統唐納德·特朗普的支持，而中間派對手薩爾瓦多·納斯拉拉則指控總統選舉存在舞弊，因為 Asfura 在夜間以微弱優勢超過了他。</p>
</div><p>Honduran dollar-denominated bonds were little changed on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>洪都拉斯以美元計價的債券在週四幾乎沒有變化。</p>
</div><p>BRAZILIAN EQUITIES HIT RECORD HIGH</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西股票創下歷史新高</p>
</div><p>Brazil's Bovespa  rose 1.4% and surpassed 164,000 points for the first time after data showed that the economy slowed more than expected in the third quarter, boosting expectations of rate cuts early next year. The real  was steady against the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西 Bovespa 指數上漲 1.4%，首次突破 164,000 點，此前數據顯示第三季度經濟增速低於預期，提升了明年初降息的預期。雷亞爾對美元保持穩定。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We expect the economy to slow further in 2026 and with inflation set to continue falling. We think Copom (Monetary Policy Committee of Brazil's central bank) will shift to interest rate cuts at its meeting in January,&#34; analysts at Capital Economics said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們預計經濟將在 2026 年進一步放緩，且通脹將繼續下降。我們認為巴西中央銀行貨幣政策委員會（Copom）將在 1 月的會議上轉向降息，” Capital Economics 的分析師在一份報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Brazil's trade surplus fell 13.4% in November from the same month last year, official data showed, landing almost in line with economists' estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官方數據顯示，巴西 11 月份的貿易順差同比下降 13.4%，幾乎與經濟學家的預期一致。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Brazilian Congressman Gervasio Maia, sponsor of the 2026 budget guidelines bill, proposed excluding up to 10 billion reais ($1.9 billion) from next year's fiscal target for state-owned companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，巴西國會議員 Gervasio Maia 提議在明年的財政目標中排除多達 100 億雷亞爾（19 億美元）用於國有企業的預算指導法案。</p>
</div><p>Chile's main stock index  was flat, while the local peso  rose 0.1%. Chilean mining giant SQM  slipped 2.6% after raising approximately $430 million in a bond sale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>智利主要股票指數持平，當地比索上漲 0.1%。智利礦業巨頭 SQM 在籌集約 4.3 億美元的債券銷售後下跌 2.6%。</p>
</div><p>Mexican equities  and the peso  were up 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Trump could decide next year to withdraw from the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, Politico reported, citing U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥股票和比索分別上漲 0.1% 和 0.3%。據 Politico 報道，特朗普可能在明年決定退出美墨加貿易協定，引用了美國貿易代表 Jamieson Greer 的説法。</p>
</div><p>In Argentina, equities  slipped 0.3%. The peso  rose 0.86%, while most dollar bonds were slightly higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在阿根廷，股票下跌 0.3%。比索上漲 0.86%，而大多數美元債券略有上漲。</p>
</div><p>Argentine officials are starting to prepare the country's return to international bond markets by the start of 2026, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彭博社週三報道稱，阿根廷官員開始為該國在 2026 年初重返國際債券市場做準備，引用了知情人士的説法。</p>
</div><p>The International Monetary Fund said the country must adjust its monetary and exchange-rate policies to build reserves and regain access to international capital markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國際貨幣基金組織表示，該國必須調整其貨幣和匯率政策，以建立儲備並重新獲得國際資本市場的准入。</p>
</div><p>Colombian stocks  steadied and the peso  was up 0.1% against the greenback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哥倫比亞股票持平，比索對美元上漲 0.1%。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, investors are monitoring developments in Venezuela amid aggressive rhetoric between Trump and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，投資者正在關注委內瑞拉的動態，因為特朗普與委內瑞拉總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅之間的激烈言辭。</p>
</div><p>U.S. pressure on Venezuela has been building, including strikes against alleged drug-smuggling boats and threats of military action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國對委內瑞拉的壓力不斷增加，包括對涉嫌販毒船隻的打擊和軍事行動的威脅。</p>
</div><p>Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要拉丁美洲股票指數和貨幣：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stock indexes</td>
<td>Latest</td>
<td>Daily % change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI Emerging Markets CBOE:EFS</td>
<td>1376.13</td>
<td>0.23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI LatAm (.MILA00000PUS)</td>
<td>2788.85</td>
<td>0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brazil Bovespa</td>
<td>164062.18</td>
<td>1.43</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mexico IPC</td>
<td>63670.79</td>
<td>0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chile IPSA</td>
<td>10179.37</td>
<td>0.03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Argentina MerVal</td>
<td>3118995.85</td>
<td>-0.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Colombia COLCAP</td>
<td>2107.44</td>
<td>0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Currencies</td>
<td>Latest</td>
<td>Daily % change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brazil real</td>
<td>5.3068</td>
<td>0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mexico peso</td>
<td>18.231</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chile peso</td>
<td>917.3</td>
<td>0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Colombia peso</td>
<td>3794</td>
<td>-0.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Peru sol</td>
<td>3.3596</td>
<td>0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Argentina peso (interbank)</td>
<td>1,441.0</td>
<td>0.86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Argentina peso (parallel) (ARSB=)</td>
<td>1,410.0</td>
<td>2.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>股票指數</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日變化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 新興市場 CBOE:EFS</td>
<td>1376.13</td>
<td>0.23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MSCI 拉美 (.MILA00000PUS)</td>
<td>2788.85</td>
<td>0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>巴西 Bovespa</td>
<td>164062.18</td>
<td>1.43</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥 IPC</td>
<td>63670.79</td>
<td>0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利 IPSA</td>
<td>10179.37</td>
<td>0.03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷 MerVal</td>
<td>3118995.85</td>
<td>-0.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥倫比亞 COLCAP</td>
<td>2107.44</td>
<td>0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>貨幣</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>日變化%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>巴西雷亞爾</td>
<td>5.3068</td>
<td>0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>墨西哥比索</td>
<td>18.231</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>智利比索</td>
<td>917.3</td>
<td>0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>哥倫比亞比索</td>
<td>3794</td>
<td>-0.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>秘魯索爾</td>
<td>3.3596</td>
<td>0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷比索（銀行間）</td>
<td>1,441.0</td>
<td>0.86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>阿根廷比索（平行市場）(ARSB=)</td>
<td>1,410.0</td>
<td>2.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>

拉美股市因對美聯儲的樂觀情緒而持續上漲；區域發展成為關注焦點