<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AI-image-of-commodities.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1152" height="720" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AI-image-of-commodities.png"/></p>
<p>週二，黃金價格上漲，投資者在美國聯邦儲備委員會為期兩天的會議開始前保持謹慎。</p>
<p>銀價上漲，跟隨黃金的急劇上漲，週二價格上漲近 2%。</p>
<p>與此同時，油價略微下跌，因市場對供應充足的擔憂，以及投資者關注俄羅斯與烏克蘭之間的和平談判。</p>
<p>由於全球最大金屬消費國中國的經濟政策令市場失望，倫敦金屬交易所（LME）的基本金屬價格下跌。</p>
<h2>黃金上漲</h2>
<p>週二，黃金價格上漲，投資者預計聯邦儲備委員會將在 12 月降息。</p>
<p>他們還在關注政策制定者的跡象，因為他們的為期兩天的會議今天晚些時候開始，看看是否會暗示未來放鬆政策的速度放緩。</p>
<p>根據 CME 的 FedWatch 工具，市場預計在聯邦儲備委員會週三政策會議結束後，降息 25 個基點的可能性為 89.4%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-88-1024x698.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="698" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-88-1024x698.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CME 集團</p>
<p>然而，主要關注點仍然是關於未來利率走勢的前瞻性指引。</p>
<p>歷史上，降低利率往往有利於無收益資產，如黃金。</p>
<p>最近的經濟指標呈現出混合的局面。</p>
<p>上週的數據表明，美國個人消費支出價格指數（聯邦儲備委員會偏好的通脹指標）與預測一致，而消費者信心在 12 月有所改善。</p>
<p>相反，11 月私人就業人數經歷了兩年半以來的最大下降，儘管截至 11 月 28 日的那一週，失業救濟申請人數降至三年來的最低水平。</p>
<p>根據國際清算銀行（BIS）的報告，零售投資者的投機性購買加劇了自 9 月以來黃金價格的上漲。這種行為導致黃金偏離了其作為避險資產的典型角色。</p>
<p>“相反，黃金價格的上漲與股票等風險資產類別一致，” 德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）商品分析師卡斯滕·弗裏茨（Carsten Fritsch）表示。</p>
<h2>油價下跌</h2>
<p>週二，油價略微下跌，延續了前一交易日 2% 的跌幅。</p>
<p>投資者密切關注最新進展，包括解決俄羅斯與烏克蘭衝突的和平談判、對市場供應充足的擔憂，以及即將做出的美國利率決策。</p>
<p>根據海關數據，11 月中國原油進口大幅超過國內需求，達到 5089 萬噸，相當於每日 1240 萬桶。</p>
<p>11 月的進口量是自 2023 年 8 月以來單月最高，按日計算。與去年相比，這一數字增長了 5%，與上個月相比增長了 9%。</p>
<p>週一，油價每桶下跌超過 1 美元。這一下降是由於伊拉克的西庫爾納 2 號油田恢復生產，該油田由盧克石油公司運營，被認為是世界上最大的油田之一。</p>
<p>與此同時，烏克蘭總統弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基將在與法國、德國和英國領導人於倫敦的討論後，向美國提出修訂的和平提案。</p>
<p>截至撰寫時，西德克薩斯中質原油價格為每桶 58.72 美元，下跌 0.3%；布倫特原油價格為每桶 62.35 美元，下跌 0.2%。</p>
<h2>基本金屬</h2>
<p>中國共產黨政治局週一召開會議，制定明年的經濟政策，新聞稿指出將 “優先考慮” 國內需求。這一消息最初推動了週一基本金屬價格的上漲。</p>
<p>然而，價格隨後在當天再次下跌。</p>
<p>“這可能是因為對比今年和去年的新聞稿顯示，優先事項變化不大，” 德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）外匯和商品分析師沃爾克馬爾·鮑爾（Volkmar Baur）表示。</p>
<p>國內需求仍然是首要任務，類似於去年，儘管目前的重點是 “優先考慮”，而不是之前討論的 “增加”。這一重點是在近期零售銷售增長緩慢和投資同比實際下降的背景下提出的。</p>
<p>鮑爾表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>相比之下，週一的數據表明，出口和外貿順差繼續強勁增長，而國內需求則不然。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>銅價以新的歷史高點開局，幾乎達到了每噸 11,800 美元，自年初以來上漲了 33%。</p>
<p>與此同時，中國報告了強勁的經濟表現，創下了第三大月度貿易順差，得益於出口數據的強勁，較去年增長近 6%。</p>
<p>儘管銅礦進口同比增長近 13%，前 11 個月與去年同期相比增長近 8%（在經歷了疲軟的 10 月後有所恢復），但根據德國商業銀行商品分析師芭芭拉·蘭布雷希特（Barbara Lambrecht）的説法，銅的具體數據整體上提供的支持有限。</p>
<p>中國精煉銅產量顯著增加——截至 10 月比去年增長 12.5%——是一個關鍵因素。</p>
<p>蘭布雷希特補充道，與銅礦進口的增長相比，精煉銅產量的強勁增長解釋了冶煉廠原材料短缺的現象。</p>
<p>商品綜述：黃金因降息預期上漲，油價因供應擔憂下跌，首發於 Invezz。</p>

<p>黃金價格因市場對美聯儲會議降息的預期而上漲，而由於供應擔憂和地緣政治因素，油價下跌。由於中國經濟政策公告未能令市場滿意，基本金屬價格下跌</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AI-image-of-commodities.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AI-image-of-commodities.png"/></p>
<p>Gold prices rose on Tuesday as investors waited cautiously ahead of the start of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二，黃金價格上漲，投資者在美國聯邦儲備委員會為期兩天的會議開始前保持謹慎。</p>
</div><p>Silver rose, tracking sharp gains in gold as prices increased nearly 2% on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀價上漲，跟隨黃金的急劇上漲，週二價格上漲近 2%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, oil prices fell slightly amid concerns over ample supply and as investors monitored the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，油價略微下跌，因市場對供應充足的擔憂，以及投資者關注俄羅斯與烏克蘭之間的和平談判。</p>
</div><p>Base metal prices fell on the London Metal Exchange (LME) after the economic policy of the world’s biggest metal consumer, China, disappointed the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於全球最大金屬消費國中國的經濟政策令市場失望，倫敦金屬交易所（LME）的基本金屬價格下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Gold climbs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黃金上漲</h2>
</div><p>Gold prices climbed on Tuesday as investors are anticipating an expected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二，黃金價格上漲，投資者預計聯邦儲備委員會將在 12 月降息。</p>
</div><p>They are also looking for indications from policymakers, as their two-day meeting starts later today, on whether they will signal a slower trajectory for future easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們還在關注政策制定者的跡象，因為他們的為期兩天的會議今天晚些時候開始，看看是否會暗示未來放鬆政策的速度放緩。</p>
</div><p>The market anticipates an 89.4% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut following the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CME 的 FedWatch 工具，市場預計在聯邦儲備委員會週三政策會議結束後，降息 25 個基點的可能性為 89.4%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-88-1024x698.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-88-1024x698.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CME Group</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CME 集團</p>
</div><p>However, the primary interest remains on any forward guidance concerning the future trajectory of rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，主要關注點仍然是關於未來利率走勢的前瞻性指引。</p>
</div><p>Historically, reduced interest rates tend to benefit non-yielding assets, such as gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，降低利率往往有利於無收益資產，如黃金。</p>
</div><p>Recent economic indicators have presented a mixed picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的經濟指標呈現出混合的局面。</p>
</div><p>Last week’s data showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, aligned with forecasts, while consumer confidence improved during December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週的數據表明，美國個人消費支出價格指數（聯邦儲備委員會偏好的通脹指標）與預測一致，而消費者信心在 12 月有所改善。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, November saw private payrolls experience their most significant decline in over two and a half years, although jobless claims dropped to a three-year low for the week ending November 28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，11 月私人就業人數經歷了兩年半以來的最大下降，儘管截至 11 月 28 日的那一週，失業救濟申請人數降至三年來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Speculative buying by retail investors has amplified the increase in gold prices since September, according to a Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report. This behavior has caused gold to diverge from its typical role as a safe-haven asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據國際清算銀行（BIS）的報告，零售投資者的投機性購買加劇了自 9 月以來黃金價格的上漲。這種行為導致黃金偏離了其作為避險資產的典型角色。</p>
</div><p>“Instead, the rise in the price of gold has been in line with risky asset classes such as equities,” said Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“相反，黃金價格的上漲與股票等風險資產類別一致，” 德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）商品分析師卡斯滕·弗裏茨（Carsten Fritsch）表示。</p>
</div><h2>Oil falls</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油價下跌</h2>
</div><p>Oil prices fell slightly on Tuesday, extending a 2% drop in the prior session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二，油價略微下跌，延續了前一交易日 2% 的跌幅。</p>
</div><p>Investors are closely monitoring the latest developments, including ongoing peace negotiations to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, worries about sufficient market supply, and an upcoming decision regarding US interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者密切關注最新進展，包括解決俄羅斯與烏克蘭衝突的和平談判、對市場供應充足的擔憂，以及即將做出的美國利率決策。</p>
</div><p>In November, China’s crude oil imports dramatically surpassed its domestic requirements, reaching 50.89 million tons, which equates to 12.4 million barrels per day, according to customs data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據海關數據，11 月中國原油進口大幅超過國內需求，達到 5089 萬噸，相當於每日 1240 萬桶。</p>
</div><p>The import volume in November was the highest recorded in a single month since August 2023 when measured on a daily basis. This figure represents an increase of 5% compared to the previous year and 9% compared to the previous month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月的進口量是自 2023 年 8 月以來單月最高，按日計算。與去年相比，這一數字增長了 5%，與上個月相比增長了 9%。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices dropped by over $1 a barrel on Monday. This decline followed the restoration of production at Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oilfield, operated by Lukoil and recognized as one of the world’s largest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週一，油價每桶下跌超過 1 美元。這一下降是由於伊拉克的西庫爾納 2 號油田恢復生產，該油田由盧克石油公司運營，被認為是世界上最大的油田之一。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, following discussions in London with the leaders of France, Germany, and Britain, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will present a revised peace proposal to the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，烏克蘭總統弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基將在與法國、德國和英國領導人於倫敦的討論後，向美國提出修訂的和平提案。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $58.72 per barrel, down 0.3%, while Brent was at $62.35 a barrel, down 0.2% from the previous close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰寫時，西德克薩斯中質原油價格為每桶 58.72 美元，下跌 0.3%；布倫特原油價格為每桶 62.35 美元，下跌 0.2%。</p>
</div><h2>Base metals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>基本金屬</h2>
</div><p>The Communist Party of China’s Politburo met Monday to set the economic policy for the coming year, with a press release stating that domestic demand will be “prioritised.” This news initially boosted base metal prices on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國共產黨政治局週一召開會議，制定明年的經濟政策，新聞稿指出將 “優先考慮” 國內需求。這一消息最初推動了週一基本金屬價格的上漲。</p>
</div><p>However, prices then fell again during the course of the day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，價格隨後在當天再次下跌。</p>
</div><p>“This could be because a close comparison of this year’s and last year’s press releases shows that priorities have not changed much,” Volkmar Baur, FX and commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這可能是因為對比今年和去年的新聞稿顯示，優先事項變化不大，” 德國商業銀行（Commerzbank AG）外匯和商品分析師沃爾克馬爾·鮑爾（Volkmar Baur）表示。</p>
</div><p>Domestic demand remains the top priority, similar to last year, although the current emphasis is on ‘prioritisation’ rather than the ‘increase’ discussed previously. This focus comes amid slow growth in recent retail sales and an actual year-on-year decline in investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國內需求仍然是首要任務，類似於去年，儘管目前的重點是 “優先考慮”，而不是之前討論的 “增加”。這一重點是在近期零售銷售增長緩慢和投資同比實際下降的背景下提出的。</p>
</div><p>Baur said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑爾表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>In contrast, Monday’s data showed that exports and the foreign trade surplus continue to grow strongly, unlike domestic demand.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>相比之下，週一的數據表明，出口和外貿順差繼續強勁增長，而國內需求則不然。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Starting the week at a new record high, copper reached almost $11,800 per ton, marking a 33% increase since the beginning of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銅價以新的歷史高點開局，幾乎達到了每噸 11,800 美元，自年初以來上漲了 33%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, China reported strong economic performance with its third-largest monthly trade surplus ever, fueled by impressive export figures that were nearly 6% higher than the previous year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，中國報告了強勁的經濟表現，創下了第三大月度貿易順差，得益於出口數據的強勁，較去年增長近 6%。</p>
</div><p>Despite an increase in copper ore imports, which were up almost 13% year-over-year and nearly 8% for the first eleven months compared to the same period last year (recovering somewhat after a weak October), the copper-specific figures offered little overall support, according to Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管銅礦進口同比增長近 13%，前 11 個月與去年同期相比增長近 8%（在經歷了疲軟的 10 月後有所恢復），但根據德國商業銀行商品分析師芭芭拉·蘭布雷希特（Barbara Lambrecht）的説法，銅的具體數據整體上提供的支持有限。</p>
</div><p>The significant increase in China’s refined copper production—12.5% higher through October than the previous year—was a key factor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國精煉銅產量顯著增加——截至 10 月比去年增長 12.5%——是一個關鍵因素。</p>
</div><p>This stronger growth in refined production, compared to the growth in copper ore imports, explains the acknowledged shortage of raw materials at smelters,Lambrecht added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘭布雷希特補充道，與銅礦進口的增長相比，精煉銅產量的強勁增長解釋了冶煉廠原材料短缺的現象。</p>
</div><p>The post Commodity wrap: gold climbs on rate cut hopes, oil drops on supply concerns appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品綜述：黃金因降息預期上漲，油價因供應擔憂下跌，首發於 Invezz。</p>
</div>

商品綜述：由於降息預期，黃金價格上漲；由於供應問題，石油價格下跌