--- title: "Summary of Wall Street Investment Banks' Expectations for the Federal Reserve's Decisions" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/269108071.md" description: "Major investment banks on Wall Street have summarized their expectations for the Federal Reserve's decisions. Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, January, and April, with the final rate dropping to 3.0%-3.25%. JPMorgan Chase anticipates a hawkish rate cut, with long-term rate expectations potentially higher. Bank of America expects a 25 basis point rate cut and an increase in the threshold for subsequent cuts. Deutsche Bank is cautious about further rate cuts. UBS believes that a majority of committee members support a 25 basis point cut. Commerzbank expects a 25 basis point cut, but several committee members may oppose it" datetime: "2025-12-09T15:05:53.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/269108071.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/269108071.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/269108071.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/269108071.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/269108071.md) # Summary of Wall Street Investment Banks' Expectations for the Federal Reserve's Decisions 1. Morgan Stanley: Currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, January, and April, with the final rate dropping to 3.0%-3.25%. The statement will imply that "risk management-based rate cuts" have ended. It is expected that several committee members will oppose (dissent). The "dot plot" will not have significant changes. 1. JPMorgan Chase: Also expects a "hawkish cut." The statement will imply that future rate cuts will be reduced. Dot plot: 2026 rate expectation is 3.4%, 2027 is 3.1%, long-term rate expectations may be higher. Future direction: The last rate cut will occur in January. 1. Bank of America: Expects a 25 basis point rate cut, while taking balance sheet-related actions. The statement will raise the threshold for subsequent rate cuts (i.e., making it harder to trigger a cut). It is expected that about 3 committee members will oppose. Next rate cut timing: June and July. 1. Deutsche Bank AG: States that strong economic growth + high inflation persistence means a cautious approach to further rate cuts is needed. The statement will shift to a more hawkish stance. The dot plot is consistent with rate expectations of 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2028. Next rate cut timing: September. 1. UBS: Believes that the vast majority of committee members will support a 25 basis point rate cut. The statement may shift to "risk-balanced" language, but this is not the baseline expectation. It is expected that 2 or more committee members will oppose, mainly from Musalem and Schmid. Inflation expectations will be slightly lowered; the dot plot will be close to September levels. Powell may emphasize "policy is data-dependent" and "policy is approaching neutral levels." 1. Commerzbank: Expects a 25 basis point rate cut, but several committee members may oppose. Powell may release hawkish signals while cutting rates. Before the end of his term, the Federal Reserve will only cut rates once more; after the new chairman takes office, further easing will begin in June. 1. Goldman Sachs: Supports a rate cut, citing a softening labor market. The statement may emphasize "higher thresholds for future rate cuts." Expectation adjustments: GDP expectations raised, inflation expectations slightly lowered. 1. Citigroup: Expects a "hawkish cut." The dot plot remains largely unchanged. Powell will not rule out the possibility of rate cuts in January or March but will avoid releasing dovish tones. 1. Wells Fargo: Expects the Federal Reserve to continue moving towards a "more neutral policy stance." Dot plot: 2026 rate expectation is 3.4%, 2027-2028 is 3.1%, long-term rate expectation is 3.0%. The statement may see 3-4 committee members opposing; policy guidance will trend towards moderation. Future outlook: 25 basis point cuts in the first quarter (Q1) and second quarter (Q2) ### 相關股票 - [Deutsche Bank AG (DB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DB.US.md) - [JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JPM.US.md) - [Bank of America (BAC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BAC.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Analyst IMS Investment Management Services Ltd. 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