<p>中歐的貨幣在週四重新獲得動能，逐漸回升至近期高點，此前美國聯邦儲備委員會發布的前景比一些人預期的更為温和。</p>
<p>該地區的貨幣在最近幾輪交易中承壓，但仍接近數月來的高點，原因多樣，從更好的經濟數據和緊縮的貨幣政策到美元疲軟，均提升了前景。</p>
<p>捷克克朗和匈牙利福林是該地區今年表現最好的貨幣，因中央銀行的利率維持不變，近期在 12 月初分別達到了 26 個月和 22 個月的高點後有所回落。</p>
<p>週四，隨着美元在隔夜交易中的下跌，部分投資者轉向新興市場資產，克朗和福林重新回到了更強的立場，這一切發生在美國降息和分析師認為的鴿派基調之後。</p>
<p>&#34;昨日美聯儲會議意外的鴿派基調使美元處於防守狀態，這可能會使捷克克朗今天受益，&#34; CSOB 銀行在一份報告中表示。</p>
<p>&#34;因此，在缺乏國內數據的情況下，回落至 24.20 EUR/CZK 的水平是可能的。&#34;</p>
<p>利率維持不變</p>
<p>到格林威治標準時間 1006 時，捷克克朗上漲 0.1%，報 24.235 兑歐元。上個月其交易強勢至 24.106。</p>
<p>捷克中央銀行行長在自 5 月以來暫停降息週期的情況下，週四重申了穩定利率的信息。</p>
<p>政策制定者雅庫布·賽德勒在《銀行業》雜誌上表示，穩定利率在一段時間內最為可能，而揚·庫比切克在彭博社表示，明年加息的押注可能為時已早。</p>
<p>在匈牙利，利率為歐盟最高的 6.50%，福林兑歐元上漲 0.5%，報 381.85，並距離其近期高點僅有 0.4% 的差距。由於本週數據顯示 11 月通脹降幅超出預期，福林持續上漲。</p>
<p>&#34;隨着美聯儲降息，一切又回到了我們之前的狀態，&#34;一位布達佩斯交易員表示。</p>
<p>匈牙利政府債務管理局（AKK）在週四的拍賣中出售了價值 950 億福林（約合 2.9088 億美元）的政府債券，超出了其原本 55 億福林（約合 1.684 億）的三系列債券的發行計劃。</p>
<p>基準 10 年期債券的平均收益率為 6.91%。</p>
<p>波蘭茲羅提略微下跌，報 4.228 兑歐元，分析師認為目前該貨幣的上限在此水平，此前在 11 月 25 日達到了七個月來的高點 4.218。</p>
<p>儘管波蘭中央銀行今年一直在降息，但其經濟增長良好，幫助支撐了茲羅提。週三，中央銀行成員表示貨幣政策正進入觀望階段，進一步降息的空間有限。</p>
<p>&#34;我們認為貨幣政策委員會的言辭不夠鴿派，應該支持短期掉期和債券利率的上升，&#34; 百萬銀行表示。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>中東歐市場快照（格林威治標準時間 1106）</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>貨幣</td>
<td>最新交易</td>
<td>前收盤</td>
<td>日變化</td>
<td>2025 年變化</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克克朗</td>
<td></td>
<td>24.2350</td>
<td>24.2700</td>
<td>+0.14%</td>
<td>+4.02%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>匈牙利福林</td>
<td></td>
<td>381.8500</td>
<td>383.6000</td>
<td>+0.46%</td>
<td>+7.75%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波蘭茲羅提</td>
<td></td>
<td>4.2280</td>
<td>4.2265</td>
<td>-0.04%</td>
<td>+1.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>羅馬尼亞列伊</td>
<td></td>
<td>5.0899</td>
<td>5.0901</td>
<td>+0.00%</td>
<td>-2.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>塞爾維亞第納爾</td>
<td></td>
<td>117.2800</td>
<td>117.4500</td>
<td>+0.14%</td>
<td>-0.28%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>注：日變化計算自格林威治標準時間 1800</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>股票</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>前收盤</td>
<td>日變化</td>
<td>2025 年變化</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>布拉格</td>
<td></td>
<td>2566.17</td>
<td>2563.9100</td>
<td>+0.09%</td>
<td>+45.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>布達佩斯</td>
<td></td>
<td>109398.36</td>
<td>108571.16</td>
<td>+0.76%</td>
<td>+37.91%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>華沙</td>
<td></td>
<td>3018.96</td>
<td>3021.37</td>
<td>-0.08%</td>
<td>+37.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>布加勒斯特</td>
<td></td>
<td>23781.48</td>
<td>23909.91</td>
<td>-0.54%</td>
<td>+42.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>債券</td>
<td>收益率（買入）</td>
<td>收益率變化</td>
<td>與德國國債的利差</td>
<td>利差日變化</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和國 2 年期</td>
<td>(CZ2YT=RR)</td>
<td>3.5640</td>
<td>0.0610</td>
<td>+139 個基點</td>
<td>+7 個基點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和國 5 年期</td>
<td>(CZ5YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.1380</td>
<td>-0.0050</td>
<td>+166 個基點</td>
<td>+0 個基點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和國 10 年期</td>
<td>(CZ10YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.6520</td>
<td>-0.0120</td>
<td>+179 個基點</td>
<td>-1 個基點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波蘭 2 年期</td>
<td>(PL2YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.0580</td>
<td>0.0110</td>
<td>+189 個基點</td>
<td>+2 個基點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波蘭 5 年期</td>
<td>(PL5YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.6190</td>
<td>-0.0160</td>
<td>+214 個基點</td>
<td>-1 個基點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波蘭 10 年期</td>
<td>(PL10YT=RR)</td>
<td>5.2670</td>
<td>-0.0080</td>
<td>+241 個基點</td>
<td>-1 個基點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>遠期利率協議</td>
<td>3x6</td>
<td>6x9</td>
<td>9x12</td>
<td>3 個月銀行間</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和國</td>
<td>(CZKFRA), (PRIBOR=)</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>3.61</td>
<td>3.64</td>
<td>3.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波蘭</td>
<td>(PLNFRA), (WIBOR=)</td>
<td>3.76</td>
<td>3.61</td>
<td>3.58</td>
<td>4.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>注：FRA 報價為要價</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

<p>中歐的貨幣，包括匈牙利福林和捷克克朗，在美國聯邦儲備委員會的鴿派展望後走強。捷克克朗上漲 0.1%，至每歐元 24.235，而匈牙利福林上漲 0.5%，至每歐元 381.85。匈牙利的債券拍賣籌集了 950 億福林。波蘭茲羅提略有下降，進一步降息的空間有限。布拉格和布達佩斯的股市上漲，而華沙和布加勒斯特則出現下跌。該地區的債券收益率各不相同</p>

<p>Central Europe's currencies regained momentum on Thursday, inching back toward recent highs after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a less hawkish outlook than some had expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中歐的貨幣在週四重新獲得動能，逐漸回升至近期高點，此前美國聯邦儲備委員會發布的前景比一些人預期的更為温和。</p>
</div><p>The region's currencies have been under pressure in recent sessions, but remain close to multi-month highs, with a mix of reasons, from better economic data and tight monetary policy to dollar weakness, keeping prospects up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該地區的貨幣在最近幾輪交易中承壓，但仍接近數月來的高點，原因多樣，從更好的經濟數據和緊縮的貨幣政策到美元疲軟，均提升了前景。</p>
</div><p>The crown and forint — the region's best performers this year as central bank interest rates have been put on hold — had retreated recently after hitting 26- and 22-month highs, respectively, early in December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>捷克克朗和匈牙利福林是該地區今年表現最好的貨幣，因中央銀行的利率維持不變，近期在 12 月初分別達到了 26 個月和 22 個月的高點後有所回落。</p>
</div><p>They moved back on stronger footing on Thursday as dollar losses overnight pushed some investors into emerging market assets, following a U.S. rate cut and what analysts view as a dovish tone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，隨着美元在隔夜交易中的下跌，部分投資者轉向新興市場資產，克朗和福林重新回到了更強的立場，這一切發生在美國降息和分析師認為的鴿派基調之後。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The surprisingly dovish tone of yesterday's Fed meeting sent the dollar on the defensive, which could benefit the Czech crown today,&#34; bank CSOB said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;昨日美聯儲會議意外的鴿派基調使美元處於防守狀態，這可能會使捷克克朗今天受益，&#34; CSOB 銀行在一份報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;A return below the level of 24.20 EUR/CZK is therefore likely in the absence of domestic figures.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;因此，在缺乏國內數據的情況下，回落至 24.20 EUR/CZK 的水平是可能的。&#34;</p>
</div><p>INTEREST RATES ON HOLD</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率維持不變</p>
</div><p>The crown  had risen 0.1% to 24.235 to the euro by 1006 GMT. It had traded as strong as 24.106 last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到格林威治標準時間 1006 時，捷克克朗上漲 0.1%，報 24.235 兑歐元。上個月其交易強勢至 24.106。</p>
</div><p>Czech central bankers, who have paused a cutting cycle since last reducing rates in May, reinforced messages of stable rates on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>捷克中央銀行行長在自 5 月以來暫停降息週期的情況下，週四重申了穩定利率的信息。</p>
</div><p>Policymaker Jakub Seidler told Bankovnictvi magazine that stable rates were most likely for some time, while Jan Kubicek told Bloomberg that bets on a hike next year might be premature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策制定者雅庫布·賽德勒在《銀行業》雜誌上表示，穩定利率在一段時間內最為可能，而揚·庫比切克在彭博社表示，明年加息的押注可能為時已早。</p>
</div><p>In Hungary, where interest rates are at a EU-joint-highest 6.50%, the forint  gained half a percent to 381.85 to the euro, and was within 0.4% of its more recent high. It continued gains since data this week showed inflation eased more than expected in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在匈牙利，利率為歐盟最高的 6.50%，福林兑歐元上漲 0.5%，報 381.85，並距離其近期高點僅有 0.4% 的差距。由於本週數據顯示 11 月通脹降幅超出預期，福林持續上漲。</p>
</div><p>&#34;With the Fed rate cut everything went back to where we were before,&#34; a Budapest trader said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;隨着美聯儲降息，一切又回到了我們之前的狀態，&#34;一位布達佩斯交易員表示。</p>
</div><p>Hungary's Government Debt Management Agency (AKK) sold 95 billion forints ($290.88 million) worth of government bonds at an auction on Thursday, raising its original offer of three series of bonds with a total value of 55 billion forints ($168.40 million).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>匈牙利政府債務管理局（AKK）在週四的拍賣中出售了價值 950 億福林（約合 2.9088 億美元）的政府債券，超出了其原本 55 億福林（約合 1.684 億）的三系列債券的發行計劃。</p>
</div><p>The average yield on the benchmark 10-year-bond was 6.91%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基準 10 年期債券的平均收益率為 6.91%。</p>
</div><p>The Polish zloty  trailed, down just a touch at 4.228 per euro around where analysts see a ceiling at the moment after it hit a seven-month high of 4.218 on November 25.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波蘭茲羅提略微下跌，報 4.228 兑歐元，分析師認為目前該貨幣的上限在此水平，此前在 11 月 25 日達到了七個月來的高點 4.218。</p>
</div><p>While the Polish central bank has been cutting rates this year, its economy has gained, helping buoy the zloty. On Wednesday, central bank members said monetary policy is moving into a wait-and-see phase and scope for further interest rate cuts was limited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管波蘭中央銀行今年一直在降息，但其經濟增長良好，幫助支撐了茲羅提。週三，中央銀行成員表示貨幣政策正進入觀望階段，進一步降息的空間有限。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We maintain that the Monetary Policy Council's less-than-dovish rhetoric should support an increase in short-term swap and bond rates,&#34; Bank Millennium said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我們認為貨幣政策委員會的言辭不夠鴿派，應該支持短期掉期和債券利率的上升，&#34; 百萬銀行表示。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1106 CET</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CURRENCIES</td>
<td>Latest trade</td>
<td>Previous close</td>
<td>Daily change</td>
<td>Change in 2025</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Czech crown</td>
<td></td>
<td>24.2350</td>
<td>24.2700</td>
<td>+0.14%</td>
<td>+4.02%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Hungary forint</td>
<td></td>
<td>381.8500</td>
<td>383.6000</td>
<td>+0.46%</td>
<td>+7.75%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Polish zloty</td>
<td></td>
<td>4.2280</td>
<td>4.2265</td>
<td>-0.04%</td>
<td>+1.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Romanian leu</td>
<td></td>
<td>5.0899</td>
<td>5.0901</td>
<td>+0.00%</td>
<td>-2.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Serbian dinar</td>
<td></td>
<td>117.2800</td>
<td>117.4500</td>
<td>+0.14%</td>
<td>-0.28%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>STOCKS</td>
<td>Latest</td>
<td>Previous close</td>
<td>Daily change</td>
<td>Change in 2025</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Prague</td>
<td></td>
<td>2566.17</td>
<td>2563.9100</td>
<td>+0.09%</td>
<td>+45.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Budapest</td>
<td></td>
<td>109398.36</td>
<td>108571.16</td>
<td>+0.76%</td>
<td>+37.91%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Warsaw</td>
<td></td>
<td>3018.96</td>
<td>3021.37</td>
<td>-0.08%</td>
<td>+37.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bucharest</td>
<td></td>
<td>23781.48</td>
<td>23909.91</td>
<td>-0.54%</td>
<td>+42.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>BONDS</td>
<td>Yield (bid)</td>
<td>Yield change</td>
<td>Spread vs Bund</td>
<td>Daily change in spread</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Czech Rep 2-year</td>
<td>(CZ2YT=RR)</td>
<td>3.5640</td>
<td>0.0610</td>
<td>+139bps</td>
<td>+7bps</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Czech Rep 5-year</td>
<td>(CZ5YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.1380</td>
<td>-0.0050</td>
<td>+166bps</td>
<td>+0bps</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Czech Rep 10-year</td>
<td>(CZ10YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.6520</td>
<td>-0.0120</td>
<td>+179bps</td>
<td>-1bps</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Poland 2-year</td>
<td>(PL2YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.0580</td>
<td>0.0110</td>
<td>+189bps</td>
<td>+2bps</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Poland 5-year</td>
<td>(PL5YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.6190</td>
<td>-0.0160</td>
<td>+214bps</td>
<td>-1bps</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Poland 10-year</td>
<td>(PL10YT=RR)</td>
<td>5.2670</td>
<td>-0.0080</td>
<td>+241bps</td>
<td>-1bps</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS</td>
<td>3x6</td>
<td>6x9</td>
<td>9x12</td>
<td>3M interbank</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Czech Rep</td>
<td>(CZKFRA), (PRIBOR=)</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>3.61</td>
<td>3.64</td>
<td>3.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Poland</td>
<td>(PLNFRA), (WIBOR=)</td>
<td>3.76</td>
<td>3.61</td>
<td>3.58</td>
<td>4.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>中東歐市場快照（格林威治標準時間 1106）</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>貨幣</td>
<td>最新交易</td>
<td>前收盤</td>
<td>日變化</td>
<td>2025 年變化</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克克朗</td>
<td></td>
<td>24.2350</td>
<td>24.2700</td>
<td>+0.14%</td>
<td>+4.02%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>匈牙利福林</td>
<td></td>
<td>381.8500</td>
<td>383.6000</td>
<td>+0.46%</td>
<td>+7.75%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波蘭茲羅提</td>
<td></td>
<td>4.2280</td>
<td>4.2265</td>
<td>-0.04%</td>
<td>+1.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>羅馬尼亞列伊</td>
<td></td>
<td>5.0899</td>
<td>5.0901</td>
<td>+0.00%</td>
<td>-2.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>塞爾維亞第納爾</td>
<td></td>
<td>117.2800</td>
<td>117.4500</td>
<td>+0.14%</td>
<td>-0.28%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>注：日變化計算自格林威治標準時間 1800</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>股票</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>前收盤</td>
<td>日變化</td>
<td>2025 年變化</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>布拉格</td>
<td></td>
<td>2566.17</td>
<td>2563.9100</td>
<td>+0.09%</td>
<td>+45.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>布達佩斯</td>
<td></td>
<td>109398.36</td>
<td>108571.16</td>
<td>+0.76%</td>
<td>+37.91%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>華沙</td>
<td></td>
<td>3018.96</td>
<td>3021.37</td>
<td>-0.08%</td>
<td>+37.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>布加勒斯特</td>
<td></td>
<td>23781.48</td>
<td>23909.91</td>
<td>-0.54%</td>
<td>+42.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>債券</td>
<td>收益率（買入）</td>
<td>收益率變化</td>
<td>與德國國債的利差</td>
<td>利差日變化</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和國 2 年期</td>
<td>(CZ2YT=RR)</td>
<td>3.5640</td>
<td>0.0610</td>
<td>+139 個基點</td>
<td>+7 個基點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和國 5 年期</td>
<td>(CZ5YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.1380</td>
<td>-0.0050</td>
<td>+166 個基點</td>
<td>+0 個基點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和國 10 年期</td>
<td>(CZ10YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.6520</td>
<td>-0.0120</td>
<td>+179 個基點</td>
<td>-1 個基點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波蘭 2 年期</td>
<td>(PL2YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.0580</td>
<td>0.0110</td>
<td>+189 個基點</td>
<td>+2 個基點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波蘭 5 年期</td>
<td>(PL5YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.6190</td>
<td>-0.0160</td>
<td>+214 個基點</td>
<td>-1 個基點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波蘭 10 年期</td>
<td>(PL10YT=RR)</td>
<td>5.2670</td>
<td>-0.0080</td>
<td>+241 個基點</td>
<td>-1 個基點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>遠期利率協議</td>
<td>3x6</td>
<td>6x9</td>
<td>9x12</td>
<td>3 個月銀行間</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和國</td>
<td>(CZKFRA), (PRIBOR=)</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>3.61</td>
<td>3.64</td>
<td>3.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波蘭</td>
<td>(PLNFRA), (WIBOR=)</td>
<td>3.76</td>
<td>3.61</td>
<td>3.58</td>
<td>4.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>注：FRA 報價為要價</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>

福林領漲，中歐貨幣走向更堅實的基礎