<p>房地美報告稱，30 年期固定利率抵押貸款平均利率從上週的 6.19% 上升至 6.22%。自 2022 年 10 月以來的近期週期低點為 6.09%。</p>
<h3><strong>當前市場快照</strong></h3>
<p>房地產市場繼續在波動的利率和頑固的價格之間導航。儘管美聯儲昨天將利率下調了 25 個基點，但本週抵押貸款利率卻朝相反方向移動，突顯了美聯儲政策與長期債券收益率之間常常存在的脱節。</p>
<ul>
<li>抵押貸款利率：根據房地美的數據，本週 30 年期固定抵押貸款平均利率上升至 6.22%，高於上週的 6.19%。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>庫存水平：</strong> 房屋供應正在緩慢恢復，但仍約 <strong>低於疫情前水平的 13%</strong>。我們看到地區差異，南部和西部的庫存激增（在丹佛和奧斯丁等城市超過疫情前的正常水平），而東北部則仍然緊張。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>價格趨勢：</strong> 全國中位掛牌價格同比基本持平，約為 <strong>424,000 美元</strong>。然而，約 <strong>20% 的掛牌</strong> 正在降價，這表明賣家不得不調整預期以滿足緊張的買家。</li>
</ul>
<h3><strong>可負擔性危機</strong></h3>
<p>可負擔性仍然是潛在買家的主要阻力。儘管美聯儲正在放鬆政策，但接近歷史高點的房價和超過 6% 的抵押貸款利率使得月供保持在高位。</p>
<ul>
<li>拖欠前景：最近的信用報告顯示，隨着&#34;可負擔性擠壓&#34;考驗借款人的韌性，抵押貸款拖欠率在 2026 年之前可能會小幅上升。</li>
<li>買家行為：Zillow 的一份新報告指出，許多買家在急於確保購房時跳過了&#34;利率購物&#34;階段，這可能使他們在波動的利率環境中損失了可觀的節省。</li>
</ul>
<h3><strong>鮑威爾主席談住房：&#34;鎖定&#34;效應與供應</strong></h3>
<p>在昨天的會議後新聞發佈會上，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾直接談到了房地產市場，提供了一個令人警醒的觀點，解釋了為什麼較低的美聯儲利率沒有立即解決該領域的問題。</p>
<p><strong>1. &#34;鎖定&#34;效應抑制供應</strong> 鮑威爾強調，由於數百萬美國人持有 2% 至 3% 利率的抵押貸款，房地產市場實際上處於&#34;凍結&#34;狀態。即使美聯儲降息，目前的市場利率（接近 6%）也太高，無法吸引這些業主出售和搬遷，從而使轉售庫存人造地保持在低位。</p>
<p><strong>2. 通脹與住房服務</strong> 鮑威爾指出，儘管美聯儲在通脹方面取得了一定進展，但 <strong>住房服務通脹</strong> 仍然頑固。他將當前的政策立場描述為&#34;適度限制性&#34;，這有助於冷卻經濟，但他承認，僅靠貨幣政策無法解決結構性住房供應不足的問題。</p>
<p><strong>3. 關税影響</strong> 在談到最近的通脹數據時，鮑威爾將當前的&#34;熱度&#34;歸因於關税，稱其為&#34;一次性價格上漲&#34;。然而，他警告説，如果這些政策變化導致建築材料或勞動力短缺（通過移民變化）成本上升，可能會進一步加劇住房供應短缺。</p>
<h3><strong>2026 年展望</strong></h3>
<p>未來住房的道路在很大程度上取決於國債收益率與美聯儲政策之間的相互作用。儘管美聯儲發出了&#34;鴿派但依賴數據&#34;的信號，但主導抵押貸款利率的債券市場對長期通脹風險仍持謹慎態度。現在，買家應預計利率將保持在 <strong>6% 的範圍內</strong>，隨着收入增長逐漸追趕房價，可負擔性只會逐步改善。</p>

房地美

<p>房地美報告稱，30 年期固定抵押貸款利率上升至 6.22%。儘管美聯儲降息，抵押貸款利率卻上升，突顯出與美聯儲政策之間的脱節。住房庫存正在恢復，但仍低於疫情前的水平，且存在地區差異。可負擔性是一個主要問題，高房價和抵押貸款利率使得購房困難。美聯儲主席鮑威爾提到 “鎖定” 效應和關税對住房供應的影響。2026 年的前景取決於國債收益率和美聯儲政策，預計利率將保持在 6% 左右</p>

<p>Freddie Mac is reporting that the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage average rate rose to 6.22% from 6.19% in the prior week. The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地美報告稱，30 年期固定利率抵押貸款平均利率從上週的 6.19% 上升至 6.22%。自 2022 年 10 月以來的近期週期低點為 6.09%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Current Market Snapshot</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>當前市場快照</strong></h3>
</div><p>The housing market continues to navigate a complex environment of fluctuating rates and sticky prices. While the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday, mortgage rates have moved in the opposite direction this week, highlighting the disconnect that often exists between Fed policy and long-term bond yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地產市場繼續在波動的利率和頑固的價格之間導航。儘管美聯儲昨天將利率下調了 25 個基點，但本週抵押貸款利率卻朝相反方向移動，突顯了美聯儲政策與長期債券收益率之間常常存在的脱節。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Mortgage Rates: According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.22% this week, up from 6.19% the previous week.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>抵押貸款利率：根據房地美的數據，本週 30 年期固定抵押貸款平均利率上升至 6.22%，高於上週的 6.19%。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Inventory Levels:</strong> Housing supply is slowly recovering but remains approximately <strong>13% below pre-pandemic levels</strong>. We are seeing regional disparities, with inventory surging in the South and West (rising above pre-pandemic norms in cities like Denver and Austin) while remaining tight in the Northeast.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>庫存水平：</strong> 房屋供應正在緩慢恢復，但仍約 <strong>低於疫情前水平的 13%</strong>。我們看到地區差異，南部和西部的庫存激增（在丹佛和奧斯丁等城市超過疫情前的正常水平），而東北部則仍然緊張。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Price Trends:</strong> National median list prices are largely flat year-over-year at approximately <strong>$424,000</strong>. However, about <strong>20% of listings</strong> are seeing price cuts, suggesting sellers are having to adjust expectations to meet stretched buyers.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>價格趨勢：</strong> 全國中位掛牌價格同比基本持平，約為 <strong>424,000 美元</strong>。然而，約 <strong>20% 的掛牌</strong> 正在降價，這表明賣家不得不調整預期以滿足緊張的買家。</li>
</ul>
</div><h3><strong>The Affordability Crunch</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>可負擔性危機</strong></h3>
</div><p>Affordability remains the primary headwind for prospective buyers. Despite the Fed's easing cycle, the combination of home prices near record highs and mortgage rates above 6% keeps monthly payments elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可負擔性仍然是潛在買家的主要阻力。儘管美聯儲正在放鬆政策，但接近歷史高點的房價和超過 6% 的抵押貸款利率使得月供保持在高位。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Delinquencies Outlook: Recent credit reports suggest a modest rise in mortgage delinquencies heading into 2026 as the &#34;affordability squeeze&#34; tests borrower resilience.</li>
<li>Buyer Behavior: A new report from Zillow indicates that many buyers are skipping the &#34;rate shopping&#34; phase in a rush to secure homes, potentially costing them significant savings in a volatile rate environment.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>拖欠前景：最近的信用報告顯示，隨着&#34;可負擔性擠壓&#34;考驗借款人的韌性，抵押貸款拖欠率在 2026 年之前可能會小幅上升。</li>
<li>買家行為：Zillow 的一份新報告指出，許多買家在急於確保購房時跳過了&#34;利率購物&#34;階段，這可能使他們在波動的利率環境中損失了可觀的節省。</li>
</ul>
</div><h3><strong>Chair Powell on Housing: The &#34;Lock-In&#34; Effect and Supply</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>鮑威爾主席談住房：&#34;鎖定&#34;效應與供應</strong></h3>
</div><p>During yesterday’s post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the housing market directly, offering a sobering view on why lower Fed rates haven't immediately fixed the sector's issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在昨天的會議後新聞發佈會上，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾直接談到了房地產市場，提供了一個令人警醒的觀點，解釋了為什麼較低的美聯儲利率沒有立即解決該領域的問題。</p>
</div><p><strong>1. The &#34;Lock-In&#34; Effect is Stifling Supply</strong> Powell emphasized that the housing market is effectively &#34;frozen&#34; because millions of Americans are holding onto mortgages with rates between 2% and 3%. Even as the Fed cuts rates, current market rates (near 6%) are too high to entice these owners to sell and move, keeping resale inventory artificially low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>1. &#34;鎖定&#34;效應抑制供應</strong> 鮑威爾強調，由於數百萬美國人持有 2% 至 3% 利率的抵押貸款，房地產市場實際上處於&#34;凍結&#34;狀態。即使美聯儲降息，目前的市場利率（接近 6%）也太高，無法吸引這些業主出售和搬遷，從而使轉售庫存人造地保持在低位。</p>
</div><p><strong>2. Inflation &amp; Housing Services</strong> Powell noted that while the Fed has made progress on inflation, <strong>housing services inflation</strong> remains sticky. He described the current policy stance as &#34;modestly restrictive,&#34; which is helping to cool the economy, but he acknowledged that monetary policy alone cannot fix structural housing supply deficits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2. 通脹與住房服務</strong> 鮑威爾指出，儘管美聯儲在通脹方面取得了一定進展，但 <strong>住房服務通脹</strong> 仍然頑固。他將當前的政策立場描述為&#34;適度限制性&#34;，這有助於冷卻經濟，但他承認，僅靠貨幣政策無法解決結構性住房供應不足的問題。</p>
</div><p><strong>3. The Tariff Impact</strong> When addressing recent inflation data, Powell attributed much of the current &#34;heat&#34; to tariffs, describing them as a &#34;one-time price increase.&#34; However, he warned that if these policy shifts lead to higher costs for construction materials or labor shortages (via immigration changes), it could exacerbate the housing supply shortage further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>3. 關税影響</strong> 在談到最近的通脹數據時，鮑威爾將當前的&#34;熱度&#34;歸因於關税，稱其為&#34;一次性價格上漲&#34;。然而，他警告説，如果這些政策變化導致建築材料或勞動力短缺（通過移民變化）成本上升，可能會進一步加劇住房供應短缺。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Outlook for 2026</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>2026 年展望</strong></h3>
</div><p>The path forward for housing depends heavily on the interplay between Treasury yields and Fed policy. While the Fed is signaling a &#34;dovish but data-dependent&#34; path, the bond market—which dictates mortgage rates—remains wary of long-term inflation risks. For now, buyers should expect rates to remain in the <strong>6% range</strong>, with affordability improving only gradually as income growth catches up to home prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未來住房的道路在很大程度上取決於國債收益率與美聯儲政策之間的相互作用。儘管美聯儲發出了&#34;鴿派但依賴數據&#34;的信號，但主導抵押貸款利率的債券市場對長期通脹風險仍持謹慎態度。現在，買家應預計利率將保持在 <strong>6% 的範圍內</strong>，隨着收入增長逐漸追趕房價，可負擔性只會逐步改善。</p>
</div>

住房市場更新：利率上升，購房負擔能力依然緊張