<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="750" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
<h3><strong>日本：預計日本央行將在製造業復甦和通脹壓力下加息</strong></h3>
<p>日本央行預計將在 12 月 19 日加息 25 個基點。即將發佈的數據應能增強日本央行對經濟復甦的信心。隨着關税不確定性的減少，我們預計製造業將出現更明顯的反彈。這將在企業短期經濟觀測和採購經理人數據中有所體現。此外，預計 11 月出口將強勁增長，汽車和半導體推動增長 7%。我們預計 11 月通脹將在 3% 左右，服務價格的上漲壓力將持續。這將使日本央行保持加息模式。</p>
<h3><strong>中國：工業生產和零售銷售預計小幅上升，而固定資產投資繼續收縮</strong></h3>
<p>中國將在週一發佈 11 月的關鍵經濟數據。我們預計工業生產和零售銷售將略微上升，分別達到 5.1% 和 2.9% 的同比增長水平。然而，固定資產投資將繼續收縮，年初至今為-2.8%。在沒有任何刺激措施的情況下，70 個城市的房價預計將繼續近期的下跌。房地產投資可能進一步放緩。由於 2025 年的增長目標看起來相當穩固，近期的刺激措施推出有限。但我們可能會在未來幾個月宣佈更多支持措施，因為 2026 年被視為一個重要年份——新五年計劃的開始。</p>
<h3><strong>台灣：預計中央銀行將維持利率不變</strong></h3>
<p>由於數據方面沒有顯著變化，中國中央銀行的季度貨幣政策會議成為關鍵焦點。儘管美聯儲近期多次降息，我們認為中央銀行將在週四將基準利率維持在 2.0% 不變。考慮到今年迄今為止增長的意外上行和對新台幣穩定性的敏感性，降息的理由不大。市場對此意見一致，經濟學家普遍呼籲維持利率不變。特別重要的是：其前瞻指引的任何鷹派或鴿派傾向。</p>
<h3><strong>印度尼西亞：預計印尼央行將降息 25 個基點</strong></h3>
<p>印尼央行可能在週三降息 25 個基點以促進增長。這是在 11 月通脹數據略微放緩以及由於近期美聯儲降息導致的利率差縮小對印尼盾施加壓力的背景下進行的。</p>
<h3><strong>下週亞洲的關鍵事件</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/6ccc5d47-2fce-485e-b40b-4aada915f960.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="800" height="707" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/6ccc5d47-2fce-485e-b40b-4aada915f960.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>利率火花：一切能否為歐元鷹派對齊？</p>
<p>外匯日報：對美元空頭來説可能更糟糕</p>
<p>又一次美聯儲降息，但分歧正在加大</p>

<p>下週，亞洲將迎來關鍵利率決策和經濟數據。日本央行可能會在製造業復甦和通脹壓力下加息。中國 11 月份的數據表明工業生產和零售銷售略有上升，但固定資產投資仍在收縮。台灣中央銀行可能會維持利率不變，而印度尼西亞央行可能會降息以促進增長。這些發展反映了該地區更廣泛的經濟趨勢</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Japan: BoJ expected to raise rates amid manufacturing recovery and inflationary pressures</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>日本：預計日本央行將在製造業復甦和通脹壓力下加息</strong></h3>
</div><p>The Bank of Japan is expected to deliver a 25 bp hike on 19 December. Upcoming data should bolster the BoJ’s belief that the economy is on a recovery path. With the reduction in tariff uncertainties, we expect a more pronounced bounceback in manufacturing. This should be reflected in Tankan and purchasing managers data. Also, November exports are projected to grow robustly, with a 7% gain driven by cars and semiconductors. We expect inflation to stay around 3% in November amid growing pressures from services prices. This will keep the BoJ in rate hike mode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本央行預計將在 12 月 19 日加息 25 個基點。即將發佈的數據應能增強日本央行對經濟復甦的信心。隨着關税不確定性的減少，我們預計製造業將出現更明顯的反彈。這將在企業短期經濟觀測和採購經理人數據中有所體現。此外，預計 11 月出口將強勁增長，汽車和半導體推動增長 7%。我們預計 11 月通脹將在 3% 左右，服務價格的上漲壓力將持續。這將使日本央行保持加息模式。</p>
</div><h3><strong>China: IP and retail sales expected to rise slightly while FAI continues to contract</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>中國：工業生產和零售銷售預計小幅上升，而固定資產投資繼續收縮</strong></h3>
</div><p>China publishes its key economic data for November on Monday. We expect industrial production and retail sales to edge up slightly from October's growth levels to 5.1% and 2.9% year-on-year, respectively. Yet, fixed asset investment will extend its contraction to -2.8% you, year-to-date. Absent any stimulus, the 70-city property prices are expected to extend recent declines. Property investment is likely to decelerate further. The rollout of stimulus has been limited in recent months as the 2025 growth target looks fairly secure. But we could get more support measures announced in the coming months with 2026 seen as an important year — the start of the new Five-Year period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國將在週一發佈 11 月的關鍵經濟數據。我們預計工業生產和零售銷售將略微上升，分別達到 5.1% 和 2.9% 的同比增長水平。然而，固定資產投資將繼續收縮，年初至今為-2.8%。在沒有任何刺激措施的情況下，70 個城市的房價預計將繼續近期的下跌。房地產投資可能進一步放緩。由於 2025 年的增長目標看起來相當穩固，近期的刺激措施推出有限。但我們可能會在未來幾個月宣佈更多支持措施，因為 2026 年被視為一個重要年份——新五年計劃的開始。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Taiwan: CBC expected to hold the interest rate</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>台灣：預計中央銀行將維持利率不變</strong></h3>
</div><p>With little of note on the data front, the Central Bank of China's quarterly monetary policy meeting is the key focus. Despite the Federal Reserve’s multiple cuts in recent months, we believe the CBC will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.0% on Thursday. There's little reason to cut rates given the upside surprise to growth so far this year and recent sensitivity to the stability of the TWD. This opinion is shared by markets, with a unanimous call for a hold from economists. Of particular importance: any hawkish or dovish tilt to its forward guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於數據方面沒有顯著變化，中國中央銀行的季度貨幣政策會議成為關鍵焦點。儘管美聯儲近期多次降息，我們認為中央銀行將在週四將基準利率維持在 2.0% 不變。考慮到今年迄今為止增長的意外上行和對新台幣穩定性的敏感性，降息的理由不大。市場對此意見一致，經濟學家普遍呼籲維持利率不變。特別重要的是：其前瞻指引的任何鷹派或鴿派傾向。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Indonesia: BI expected to cut rates by 25bps</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>印度尼西亞：預計印尼央行將降息 25 個基點</strong></h3>
</div><p>Bank Indonesia is likely to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday to boost growth. This comes amid a slightly softer inflation print in November and pressure on IDR from narrower rate differentials easing after the recent Fed cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼央行可能在週三降息 25 個基點以促進增長。這是在 11 月通脹數據略微放緩以及由於近期美聯儲降息導致的利率差縮小對印尼盾施加壓力的背景下進行的。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Key events in Asia next week</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>下週亞洲的關鍵事件</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/6ccc5d47-2fce-485e-b40b-4aada915f960.png" alt="" original-src="https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/6ccc5d47-2fce-485e-b40b-4aada915f960.png"/></p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率火花：一切能否為歐元鷹派對齊？</p>
</div><p>FX Daily: It Could Have Been Worse For Dollar Bears</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外匯日報：對美元空頭來説可能更糟糕</p>
</div><p>Another Fed Cut, But There Is Growing Dissent</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>又一次美聯儲降息，但分歧正在加大</p>
</div>

亞洲本週展望：日本、印度尼西亞、台灣的利率決策以及中國的重要數據