<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="605" height="340" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>在甲骨文發佈財報的前 24 小時，有人以恰好一個行權價購買了 24,000 份看跌期權：$190。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152529.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="773" height="108" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152529.png"/></p>
<p>第二天早上，甲骨文股價跳空下跌，正好停在那個位置。這是運氣嗎？內幕消息嗎？都不是。他們只是理解了大多數交易者在財報失望後對股票行為的忽視。</p>
<h3><strong>無人談論的佈局</strong></h3>
<p>甲骨文在財報前上漲。股價從 190 上漲到 210，受到了財報前的動能推動。分析師們持樂觀態度。但考慮一下可能的結果：</p>
<ul>
<li>如果甲骨文意外向上，股價可能上漲 5%。這個漲幅在價格中已經基本反映出來。上行空間有限。</li>
<li>如果甲骨文失望，股價將迅速回落至 190。所有預期的收益將蒸發。你將在一個過夜跳空中失去整個財報前的漲幅。</li>
</ul>
<p>數學是不對稱的。上行空間限制在大約 5%。下行則是乾淨的 10% 回到之前的支撐位。而且下行會更快更猛烈地到來。</p>
<h3><strong>為什麼$190 很重要</strong></h3>
<p>$190 這個水平是甲骨文在財報前上漲之前的交易價格。它是一個自然支撐位。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152533.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="782" height="505" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152533.png"/></p>
<p>當股票在財報前上漲後失望時，它們不會逐漸下跌。它們通常會跳空回到起始位置。這種情況反覆發生。</p>
<p>Ghost Prints 監控控制枱標記了在那個確切行權價的 24,000 份看跌期權。有人為均值迴歸進行了佈局。這不是崩盤。也不是內幕消息。只是認識到$190 這個水平是如果消息失望，股票將落到的地方。</p>
<p>看跌期權並沒有導致股價停在$190。看跌期權是在那裏佈局的，因為成熟的交易者理解這是均值迴歸將帶它到達的地方。</p>
<h3><strong>打印實際上告訴了我們什麼</strong></h3>
<p>這就是如何解讀機構流動。你不是在尋找知道財報數字的人。你是在尋找圍繞不對稱結果的佈局。</p>
<p>打印揭示了哪個動作會更大。不是哪個方向是保證的。偏斜傾向於下行 - 更大的幅度，更快的移動，更清晰的目標。正如我在交易時段所説：“這會完美嗎？不，沒有什麼是 100% 的。我們只是試圖讓自己處於那個位置。”</p>
<h3><strong>伽馬如何加速移動</strong></h3>
<p>甲骨文未能達標。股價跳空下跌。然後機制開始發揮作用。那 24,000 份看跌期權向着行權價移動。賣出這些合約的市場做市商不得不通過做空股票來對沖他們的風險敞口。</p>
<p>隨着甲骨文股價向$190 下跌，對沖需求增加。更多的賣壓。伽馬擠壓加速了向已經反映在價格中的目標的下跌。</p>
<p>期權並沒有決定目的地。它們加速了到達一個基本均值迴歸已經指向的水平的過程。</p>
<h3><strong>台灣半導體制造的不同之處</strong></h3>
<p>台灣半導體制造顯示出不同的佈局。有人在股票接近$200 的高位時購買了 8,000 份$175 的看跌期權。同樣的方向性押注。完全不同的佈局。</p>
<p>我特別注意到台灣半導體的看跌期權缺乏伽馬擠壓的潛力。在$175 時，股票在$200，這些看跌期權的 delta 大約為 0.03。幾乎不需要對沖。沒有反饋循環。</p>
<p>台灣半導體的打印反映了情緒 - 有人想要下行保護。但沒有有意義的 delta，就沒有機械壓力將股票拉向那個行權價。</p>
<p>並不是每個看跌期權的打印都會創造一個目標。甲骨文的佈局是特定的：看跌期權接近之前的支撐位，在跳空後接近行權價，具有足夠的 delta 來迫使對沖。台灣半導體沒有這種情況。</p>
<h3><strong>框架，而不是預測</strong></h3>
<p>打印並不預測結果。它揭示了在概率不對稱時哪個結果提供更好的風險回報。</p>
<p>甲骨文驗證了這個框架：識別自然迴歸水平，認識到期權佈局與該水平一致，並理解伽馬可以加速但並不決定方向。</p>
<p>目標不是預測。是概率。甲骨文展示了當偏斜、佈局和基本面一致時會發生什麼。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>在想要你死的市場中生存</p>
<p>人工智能恐懼升級並開始蔓延</p>
<p>布萊克剛剛發現美聯儲的真正贏家</p>

甲骨文

<p>這篇文章討論了期權交易者在甲骨文財報發佈前的戰略定位，強調了 190 美元水平作為自然支撐的重要性。交易者在這一行權價購買了 24,000 份看跌期權，預計如果甲骨文的財報令人失望，將會出現均值迴歸。由於市場做市商對其頭寸進行對沖，股票下跌至 190 美元，形成了伽馬擠壓。這一情景展示了期權定位如何與基本面水平相結合，加速股票波動，強調了概率而非預測的重要性</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>24 hours before Oracle's earnings, someone bought 24,000 puts at exactly one strike: $190.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在甲骨文發佈財報的前 24 小時，有人以恰好一個行權價購買了 24,000 份看跌期權：$190。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152529.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152529.png"/></p>
<p>The next morning, Oracle gapped down and stopped right there. Was it luck? Insider knowledge? Neither. They just understood something most traders miss about how stocks behave after disappointing earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二天早上，甲骨文股價跳空下跌，正好停在那個位置。這是運氣嗎？內幕消息嗎？都不是。他們只是理解了大多數交易者在財報失望後對股票行為的忽視。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Setup Nobody Talked About</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>無人談論的佈局</strong></h3>
</div><p>Oracle rallied into earnings. The stock climbed from 190 to 210 on pre-earnings momentum. Analysts were bullish. But consider the possible outcomes:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文在財報前上漲。股價從 190 上漲到 210，受到了財報前的動能推動。分析師們持樂觀態度。但考慮一下可能的結果：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>If Oracle surprises to the upside, maybe the stock rallies 5%. That move is largely baked into the price already. Limited upside.</li>
<li>If Oracle disappoints, the stock snaps back to 190. All that anticipated gain evaporates. You give back the entire pre-earnings rally in one overnight gap.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如果甲骨文意外向上，股價可能上漲 5%。這個漲幅在價格中已經基本反映出來。上行空間有限。</li>
<li>如果甲骨文失望，股價將迅速回落至 190。所有預期的收益將蒸發。你將在一個過夜跳空中失去整個財報前的漲幅。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The math was asymmetric. Upside capped at around 5%. Downside was a clean 10% back to prior support. And the downside would hit faster and harder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數學是不對稱的。上行空間限制在大約 5%。下行則是乾淨的 10% 回到之前的支撐位。而且下行會更快更猛烈地到來。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Why $190 Mattered</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>為什麼$190 很重要</strong></h3>
</div><p>That $190 level was where Oracle traded before the pre-earnings rally started. It was natural support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$190 這個水平是甲骨文在財報前上漲之前的交易價格。它是一個自然支撐位。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152533.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152533.png"/></p>
<p>When stocks disappoint after running into earnings, they don't drift lower gradually. They often gap back to where they started. This happens repeatedly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當股票在財報前上漲後失望時，它們不會逐漸下跌。它們通常會跳空回到起始位置。這種情況反覆發生。</p>
</div><p>The Ghost Prints Surveillance Console flagged 24,000 puts at that exact strike. Someone positioned for mean reversion. This was not a crash. Not insider knowledge. Just recognition that the $190 level was where the stock would land if the news disappointed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ghost Prints 監控控制枱標記了在那個確切行權價的 24,000 份看跌期權。有人為均值迴歸進行了佈局。這不是崩盤。也不是內幕消息。只是認識到$190 這個水平是如果消息失望，股票將落到的地方。</p>
</div><p>The puts didn't cause the stock to stop at $190. The puts were positioned there because sophisticated traders understood that's where mean reversion would take it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看跌期權並沒有導致股價停在$190。看跌期權是在那裏佈局的，因為成熟的交易者理解這是均值迴歸將帶它到達的地方。</p>
</div><h3><strong>What the Print Actually Told Us</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>打印實際上告訴了我們什麼</strong></h3>
</div><p>This is how you read institutional flow. You're not looking for someone who knows the earnings numbers. You're looking for positioning around asymmetric outcomes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是如何解讀機構流動。你不是在尋找知道財報數字的人。你是在尋找圍繞不對稱結果的佈局。</p>
</div><p>The print revealed which move would be bigger. Not which direction was guaranteed. The skew favored the downside - larger magnitude, faster move, cleaner target. As I said during the trading session: &#34;Is it gonna be perfect? No, nothing is 100%. We're just trying to put ourselves in that position.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>打印揭示了哪個動作會更大。不是哪個方向是保證的。偏斜傾向於下行 - 更大的幅度，更快的移動，更清晰的目標。正如我在交易時段所説：“這會完美嗎？不，沒有什麼是 100% 的。我們只是試圖讓自己處於那個位置。”</p>
</div><h3><strong>How Gamma Accelerated the Move</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>伽馬如何加速移動</strong></h3>
</div><p>Oracle missed. The stock gapped lower. Then the mechanics kicked in. Those 24,000 puts moved toward the money. Market makers who sold those contracts had to hedge their exposure by shorting shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文未能達標。股價跳空下跌。然後機制開始發揮作用。那 24,000 份看跌期權向着行權價移動。賣出這些合約的市場做市商不得不通過做空股票來對沖他們的風險敞口。</p>
</div><p>As Oracle dropped toward $190, hedging requirements increased. More selling pressure. The gamma squeeze accelerated the decline toward the target that was already baked in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着甲骨文股價向$190 下跌，對沖需求增加。更多的賣壓。伽馬擠壓加速了向已經反映在價格中的目標的下跌。</p>
</div><p>The options didn't determine the destination. They accelerated the journey to a level that fundamental mean reversion was already pointing toward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期權並沒有決定目的地。它們加速了到達一個基本均值迴歸已經指向的水平的過程。</p>
</div><h3><strong>What's Different About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>台灣半導體制造的不同之處</strong></h3>
</div><p>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing showed different positioning. Someone bought 8,000 puts at the $175 strike while the stock traded near highs around $200. Same directional bet. Different setup entirely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台灣半導體制造顯示出不同的佈局。有人在股票接近$200 的高位時購買了 8,000 份$175 的看跌期權。同樣的方向性押注。完全不同的佈局。</p>
</div><p>I specifically noted that the Taiwan Semiconductor puts lacked gamma squeeze potential. At $175 with the stock at $200, those puts had roughly 0.03 delta. Almost no hedging required. No feedback loop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我特別注意到台灣半導體的看跌期權缺乏伽馬擠壓的潛力。在$175 時，股票在$200，這些看跌期權的 delta 大約為 0.03。幾乎不需要對沖。沒有反饋循環。</p>
</div><p>The Taiwan Semiconductor print reflects sentiment - someone wants downside protection. But without meaningful delta, there's no mechanical pressure pulling the stock toward that strike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台灣半導體的打印反映了情緒 - 有人想要下行保護。但沒有有意義的 delta，就沒有機械壓力將股票拉向那個行權價。</p>
</div><p>Not every put print creates a target. The Oracle setup was specific: puts near prior support, close to the money after a gap, with enough delta to force hedging. Taiwan Semiconductor doesn't have that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>並不是每個看跌期權的打印都會創造一個目標。甲骨文的佈局是特定的：看跌期權接近之前的支撐位，在跳空後接近行權價，具有足夠的 delta 來迫使對沖。台灣半導體沒有這種情況。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Framework, Not the Prediction</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>框架，而不是預測</strong></h3>
</div><p>The print doesn't predict outcomes. It reveals which outcome offers better risk-reward when the probabilities are asymmetric.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>打印並不預測結果。它揭示了在概率不對稱時哪個結果提供更好的風險回報。</p>
</div><p>Oracle validated the framework: identify the natural reversion level, recognize when options positioning aligns with that level, and understand that gamma can accelerate but doesn't determine direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文驗證了這個框架：識別自然迴歸水平，認識到期權佈局與該水平一致，並理解伽馬可以加速但並不決定方向。</p>
</div><p>The goal isn't prediction. It's probability. Oracle showed what happens when skew, positioning, and fundamentals align.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目標不是預測。是概率。甲骨文展示了當偏斜、佈局和基本面一致時會發生什麼。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Surviving Markets That Want You Dead</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在想要你死的市場中生存</p>
</div><p>A.I. Fear Escalates And Begins To Spread</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能恐懼升級並開始蔓延</p>
</div><p>Blake Just Spotted the Fed's Real Winners</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布萊克剛剛發現美聯儲的真正贏家</p>
</div>

為什麼 190 美元是甲骨文需要關注的關鍵水平