<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/590022/pexels-photo-590022.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1132" height="750" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/590022/pexels-photo-590022.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
<p>近期就業增長明顯放緩，截止到九月的四個月平均每月僅增加 40,000 個職位，而 2024 年則為 170,000 個職位。放緩的主要原因是移民的急劇減少，這一趨勢自去年六月拜登上任以來開始，並在特朗普執政期間加速。勞動力增長的潛在速度現在可能在 30,000 到 60,000 之間。</p>
<p>由於尚不清楚需要多少工作崗位才能跟上勞動力市場的增長，因此應更多關注就業增長的分佈和家庭調查中的失業率。在過去四個月中，絕大多數的就業增長髮生在醫療保健領域，而其他大多數行業則出現了失業。ADP 的十一月報告顯示，私營部門在該月出現了職位流失，製造業受到的打擊尤其嚴重。</p>
<p>查看前幾個月的增長修正也將很重要。修正是自相關的。前兩個月的修正向下意味着，十一月數據中報告的修正也可能是負面的。</p>
<p>失業率從一月份的 4.0% 逐漸上升至九月份的 4.4%。雖然按歷史標準來看，這仍然是相對較低的失業率，但變化的方向令人擔憂。此外，黑人工人和年輕人等弱勢羣體的失業率增長幅度更大。</p>
<h3><strong>商品部門的就業可能再次下降</strong></h3>
<p>製造業在過去一年半中一直在裁員。預計這一下降趨勢在十一月將繼續。除了 ADP 報告外，值得注意的是，九月份製造業的工作時間急劇下降，使得總工作時間指數比去年同期低了超過一個百分點。</p>
<p>建築業的就業在最近幾個月也停滯不前。自年初以來，住宅建築失去了 30,000 個職位。這一損失已被非住宅建築和基礎設施的增長所抵消。然而，從五月到九月的就業保持平穩。</p>
<p>採礦業的就業也呈下降趨勢。儘管特朗普政府大力推動開放更多地區進行租賃並減少鑽探的環境障礙，但低油價使得許多地區的生產變得無利可圖。該行業的年同比職位流失 14,000 個，相對於整體勞動力市場來説相對微不足道；這佔該行業就業的 2% 以上。預計在十一月將繼續裁員。</p>
<h3><strong>醫療保健就業持續增長，政府就業可能停滯</strong></h3>
<p>醫療保健行業在十一月可能會繼續增加就業，儘管增速低於去年。聯邦政府的削減將抑制就業增長，但該行業仍將增加 20,000 到 30,000 個職位。聯邦政府因 DOGE 的直接影響而裁員。這些裁員大多在十月份實施，但在十一月可能仍會有進一步的損失。州和地方政府去年是第二大就業增長行業，但預計今年剩餘時間和 2026 年將會持平。</p>
<p>餐飲業是 2025 年另一個主要的就業增長行業。在今年早些時候停滯後，最近三個月的就業增長加速，平均每月超過 20,000 個職位。</p>
<h3><strong>工資增長正在減弱</strong></h3>
<p>2023 年和 2024 年名義工資增長平均略高於 4.0%。在 2025 年似乎有所放緩。隨着通貨膨脹上升，實際工資增長几乎停滯。預計十一月的小時工資年同比增長將進一步放緩，低於 3.5%。</p>
<p>工資增長減弱在低薪餐飲行業尤為明顯。該行業的工資在九月份有所回升，但在十一月的數據中可能會逆轉。</p>
<h3><strong>失業率將進一步上升</strong></h3>
<p>勞動力市場的疲軟可能會使十一月的失業率至少達到 4.5%，甚至更高。這一失業率的上升對弱勢羣體的影響尤其嚴重。黑人工人和年輕工人（20 至 24 歲）的失業率預計將進一步上升，當前分別為 7.5% 和 9.2%。</p>
<h3><strong>因自願辭職導致的失業比例</strong></h3>
<p>因自願辭職導致的失業比例可能會進一步下降。考慮到失業率，這一比例一直異常低。這表明，工人們對在沒有新工作安排的情況下離開當前工作後能否找到新工作的信心不足。九月份的 JOLTS（職位空缺和勞動力流動調查）數據顯示，辭職率降至 1.8%。上一次辭職率如此之低是在 2014 年 12 月，當時失業率為 5.6%。</p>
<h3><strong>大學畢業生的失業率可能進一步上升</strong></h3>
<p>大學畢業生的失業率在九月份上升至 2.8%。雖然大學畢業生的失業率仍遠低於受教育程度較低人羣的失業率，但他們在今年勞動力市場疲軟中受到的打擊尤為嚴重。大學畢業生的失業率上一次如此之高是在 2015 年 5 月。隨着疫情期間學生債務償還的暫停結束，以及一些拜登的收入驅動償還計劃被取消，這對年輕畢業生來説可能是特別的困難。</p>
<h3><strong>勞動力市場疲軟，工人面臨困境</strong></h3>
<p>過去一年，勞動力市場明顯疲軟。這在因辭職導致的低失業率以及 JOLTS 數據中極低的辭職率中表現得尤為明顯。此外，黑人工人和年輕人的失業率急劇上升，表明他們在找工作方面面臨嚴重問題。雖然有一些證據表明工資增長放緩，但九月份的報告顯示情況有所好轉。目前，除非人工智能泡沫崩潰，否則沒有理由擔心經濟衰退，但勞動力市場在十一月份可能會進一步惡化。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>尋找唐納德·特朗普的繁榮經濟</p>
<p>特朗普的 1% 利率：與金錢的樂趣</p>
<p>特朗普就關税給國家上了一堂經濟課</p>

聯合健康

<p>就業增長放緩，最近平均每月新增 40,000 個職位，而 2024 年為 170,000 個，原因是移民減少。醫療保健是主要的新增就業部門，而製造業和採礦業則在減少就業。失業率上升至 4.4%，對弱勢羣體的影響更大。工資增長乏力，實際工資幾乎沒有增加。11 月的失業率可能上升至 4.5% 或更高，自願辭職人數減少，顯示出工人的不安全感</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/590022/pexels-photo-590022.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/590022/pexels-photo-590022.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p>Job growth has clearly slowed sharply in recent months, with the average for the four months ending in September being just 40,000 jobs a month, compared to 170,000 jobs in 2024. A major cause of the slowdown is the sharp curtailment of immigration, which began last June under Biden and has picked up speed with Trump. The underlying rate of labor force growth is now likely in the range of 30,000 to 60,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近期就業增長明顯放緩，截止到九月的四個月平均每月僅增加 40,000 個職位，而 2024 年則為 170,000 個職位。放緩的主要原因是移民的急劇減少，這一趨勢自去年六月拜登上任以來開始，並在特朗普執政期間加速。勞動力增長的潛在速度現在可能在 30,000 到 60,000 之間。</p>
</div><p>Since it’s not clear how many jobs are needed to keep even with the growth of the labor market, the focus should be more on the distribution of job growth and the unemployment rate from the household survey. In the last four months, the overwhelming majority of job growth has been in healthcare with most other sectors losing jobs. The ADP November report showed private sector job loss for the month, with manufacturing being especially hard hit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於尚不清楚需要多少工作崗位才能跟上勞動力市場的增長，因此應更多關注就業增長的分佈和家庭調查中的失業率。在過去四個月中，絕大多數的就業增長髮生在醫療保健領域，而其他大多數行業則出現了失業。ADP 的十一月報告顯示，私營部門在該月出現了職位流失，製造業受到的打擊尤其嚴重。</p>
</div><p>It will also be important to look at the revisions to prior months’ growth. Revisions are autocorrelated. The fact that the prior two months revisions were downward means that it’s likely that the revisions reported in the November data will also be negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看前幾個月的增長修正也將很重要。修正是自相關的。前兩個月的修正向下意味着，十一月數據中報告的修正也可能是負面的。</p>
</div><p>The unemployment rate has been inching up from 4.0 percent in January to 4.4 percent in September. While this is still a relatively low unemployment rate by historical standards, the direction of change is a cause for concern. Also, disadvantaged groups like Black workers and young people have seen much larger increases in unemployment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失業率從一月份的 4.0% 逐漸上升至九月份的 4.4%。雖然按歷史標準來看，這仍然是相對較低的失業率，但變化的方向令人擔憂。此外，黑人工人和年輕人等弱勢羣體的失業率增長幅度更大。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Employment in the Goods Sector is Likely to Fall Again</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>商品部門的就業可能再次下降</strong></h3>
</div><p>The manufacturing sector has been shedding jobs for the last year and a half. The downward trend is likely to continue in November. In addition to the ADP report, it’s also worth noting that hours in manufacturing fell sharply in September, putting the index of aggregate hours more than a full percentage point below its year-ago level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>製造業在過去一年半中一直在裁員。預計這一下降趨勢在十一月將繼續。除了 ADP 報告外，值得注意的是，九月份製造業的工作時間急劇下降，使得總工作時間指數比去年同期低了超過一個百分點。</p>
</div><p>Construction employment has also stagnated in recent months. Residential construction has lost 30,000 jobs since the start of the year. This has been more than offset by gains in non-residential construction and infrastructure. Still, employment was flat between May and September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>建築業的就業在最近幾個月也停滯不前。自年初以來，住宅建築失去了 30,000 個職位。這一損失已被非住宅建築和基礎設施的增長所抵消。然而，從五月到九月的就業保持平穩。</p>
</div><p>Mining employment has also been trending downward. While the Trump administration has made a big point of opening more areas to leasing and reducing environmental obstacles to drilling, the low price of oil has made production in many areas unprofitable. The 14k year-over-year job loss in the sector is relatively inconsequential relative to the overall labor market; it is more than 2 percent of employment in the sector. It is likely to continue to shed jobs in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>採礦業的就業也呈下降趨勢。儘管特朗普政府大力推動開放更多地區進行租賃並減少鑽探的環境障礙，但低油價使得許多地區的生產變得無利可圖。該行業的年同比職位流失 14,000 個，相對於整體勞動力市場來説相對微不足道；這佔該行業就業的 2% 以上。預計在十一月將繼續裁員。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Health Care Employment Continues to Grow, Government Employment Likely to Stagnate</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>醫療保健就業持續增長，政府就業可能停滯</strong></h3>
</div><p>The health care sector will likely continue to add jobs in November, although at a slower pace than it did last year. Federal cutbacks will restrain job growth, but the sector will still add 20,000 jobs to 30,000 jobs. The federal government has been shedding jobs as a direct result of DOGE. These cuts mostly had been implemented as of October, but there may still be some further losses in November. State and local governments had been the second leading sector for job growth last year, but employment will likely be treading water the rest of this year and into 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>醫療保健行業在十一月可能會繼續增加就業，儘管增速低於去年。聯邦政府的削減將抑制就業增長，但該行業仍將增加 20,000 到 30,000 個職位。聯邦政府因 DOGE 的直接影響而裁員。這些裁員大多在十月份實施，但在十一月可能仍會有進一步的損失。州和地方政府去年是第二大就業增長行業，但預計今年剩餘時間和 2026 年將會持平。</p>
</div><p>Restaurants had been the other major sector for job growth in 2025. After stagnating earlier this year, job growth has sped up, averaging more than 20,000 a month in the last three months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>餐飲業是 2025 年另一個主要的就業增長行業。在今年早些時候停滯後，最近三個月的就業增長加速，平均每月超過 20,000 個職位。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Wage Growth is Weakening</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>工資增長正在減弱</strong></h3>
</div><p>Nominal wage growth had averaged slightly above 4.0 percent in 2023 and 2024. It seems to have slowed modestly in 2025. With inflation edging higher, real wage growth has slowed to a crawl. It is likely that the year-over-year growth in the hourly wage will slow further in November, with a rate under 3.5 percent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年和 2024 年名義工資增長平均略高於 4.0%。在 2025 年似乎有所放緩。隨着通貨膨脹上升，實際工資增長几乎停滯。預計十一月的小時工資年同比增長將進一步放緩，低於 3.5%。</p>
</div><p>The weakening of wage growth had been especially visible in the low-paying restaurant industry. Wages in this industry have bounced up some in September, but this could be reversed in the November data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工資增長減弱在低薪餐飲行業尤為明顯。該行業的工資在九月份有所回升，但在十一月的數據中可能會逆轉。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Unemployment Will Edge Higher</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>失業率將進一步上升</strong></h3>
</div><p>The weakness in the labor market will likely push the unemployment rate in November to at least 4.5 percent, and possibly higher. This rise in unemployment is hitting disadvantaged groups especially hard. The unemployment rate for both Black workers and young workers (ages 20 to 24) are likely to rise further from the current rates of 7.5 percent and 9.2 percent, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勞動力市場的疲軟可能會使十一月的失業率至少達到 4.5%，甚至更高。這一失業率的上升對弱勢羣體的影響尤其嚴重。黑人工人和年輕工人（20 至 24 歲）的失業率預計將進一步上升，當前分別為 7.5% 和 9.2%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Share of Unemployment Due to Quits</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>因自願辭職導致的失業比例</strong></h3>
</div><p>The portion of unemployment due to voluntary quits is likely to fall further. It has consistently been unusually low given the unemployment rate. This suggests that workers do not feel confident of their ability to get a new job if they leave their current job without a new job lined up. This view is supported by the September data from the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), which showed the quit rate falling to 1.8 percent. The last time the quit rate was this low was in December of 2014, when the unemployment rate was 5.6 percent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因自願辭職導致的失業比例可能會進一步下降。考慮到失業率，這一比例一直異常低。這表明，工人們對在沒有新工作安排的情況下離開當前工作後能否找到新工作的信心不足。九月份的 JOLTS（職位空缺和勞動力流動調查）數據顯示，辭職率降至 1.8%。上一次辭職率如此之低是在 2014 年 12 月，當時失業率為 5.6%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Unemployment for College Grads Could Rise Further</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>大學畢業生的失業率可能進一步上升</strong></h3>
</div><p>The unemployment rate for college grads rose to 2.8 percent in September. While the unemployment rate for college grads is still far lower than the rate for people with less education, they have been especially hard hit by the weakening of the labor market this year. The last time the unemployment rate for college grads was this high was in May of 2015. This is likely to be a special hardship for younger grads now that the pandemic moratorium on student debt repayment has ended and some of the Biden income-driven repayment plans have been cancelled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大學畢業生的失業率在九月份上升至 2.8%。雖然大學畢業生的失業率仍遠低於受教育程度較低人羣的失業率，但他們在今年勞動力市場疲軟中受到的打擊尤為嚴重。大學畢業生的失業率上一次如此之高是在 2015 年 5 月。隨着疫情期間學生債務償還的暫停結束，以及一些拜登的收入驅動償還計劃被取消，這對年輕畢業生來説可能是特別的困難。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Weakening Labor Market, Bad Times for Workers</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>勞動力市場疲軟，工人面臨困境</strong></h3>
</div><p>The labor market has gotten notably weaker over the last year. This is most visible in the low share of unemployment due to quits, as well as the extraordinarily low quit rate in the JOLTS data. Also, the sharp rise in the unemployment rate of Black workers and young people indicates they are having serious problems finding work. There had been some evidence wage growth had slowed, although the September report showed a somewhat better picture. At the moment, there is no basis for concerns about a recession, absent a collapse of the AI bubble, but the labor market is likely to show further deterioration in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去一年，勞動力市場明顯疲軟。這在因辭職導致的低失業率以及 JOLTS 數據中極低的辭職率中表現得尤為明顯。此外，黑人工人和年輕人的失業率急劇上升，表明他們在找工作方面面臨嚴重問題。雖然有一些證據表明工資增長放緩，但九月份的報告顯示情況有所好轉。目前，除非人工智能泡沫崩潰，否則沒有理由擔心經濟衰退，但勞動力市場在十一月份可能會進一步惡化。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
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2025 年 11 月就業數據預覽：我們可以期待什麼