<p>今年，白銀的表現遠超黃金，截至 12 月初，價格飆升近 100%。</p>
<p>這一漲勢伴隨着劇烈波動，受到經濟信號變化和貿易關税政策演變的驅動，ING 集團預計在高不確定性持續的情況下，市場將進一步波動。</p>
<p>ING 在其展望報告中表示，白銀近期的強勁表現歸因於幾個關鍵因素：持續的供應短缺、因其在太陽能技術、電動車和電子產品中的重要作用而推動的強勁工業需求。</p>
<p>此外，投資者對白銀的興趣重新回升，白銀被視為比黃金更易獲得的替代品。</p>
<p>黃金/白銀比率從解放日的高峰 105 顯著下降，目前處於年初至今的低點，低於 70。</p>
<p>根據 ING 集團商品策略師 Ewa Manthey 的説法，這一減少表明機構投資者對白銀的信心正在增強。</p>
<p><strong>偉大的白銀擠壓</strong></p>
<p>美國關税的不確定性導致歷史性的擠壓，將金屬從倫敦轉移到美國，導致 COMEX 期貨在大部分時間內持續高於倫敦價格。</p>
<p>這一變化導致倫敦可用白銀庫存急劇減少，倫敦是主要的交易中心。</p>
<p>儘管倫敦的白銀流入創下紀錄，白銀市場仍在努力應對歷史性的空頭擠壓帶來的影響。</p>
<p>在倫敦，租賃利率（代表借入白銀的年成本）仍維持在約 6% 的高位。</p>
<p>這一情況給其他地區帶來了壓力，10 月份中國的白銀出口激增至創紀錄的 660 多噸。</p>
<p>因此，與上海期貨交易所相關的倉庫庫存最近達到了近十年來的最低水平，促使大量白銀被運往倫敦以緩解那裏的壓力。</p>
<p>Manthey 在 ING 報告中表示：</p>
<p>白銀仍面臨關税風險，最近將貴金屬納入美國地質調查局的關鍵礦物名單，增加了美國進口關税的可能性。</p>
<p><strong>2026 年的順風</strong></p>
<p>Manthey 補充道：“展望 2026 年，白銀將繼續受到投資者對貴金屬的改善情緒和日益緊張的實物平衡的支持。”</p>
<p>白銀有望受益於與黃金類似的宏觀因素，包括美元走弱、美聯儲降息以及由於持續的地緣政治不穩定而增加的避險資產需求。</p>
<p>歷史上，白銀在貨幣寬鬆時期的表現優於黃金，因為實際收益率的下降通常會提升投資者興趣和工業使用。</p>
<p>但根據 Manthey 的説法，白銀的前景也受到與黃金不同的基本面因素的影響。</p>
<p>工業應用消耗了超過一半的白銀總供應。</p>
<p>預計中國的太陽能需求將放緩，特別是在經歷了幾年的強勁增長後，預計安裝量將在 2025 年達到最高點。</p>
<p>電氣化、必要的電網增強以及白銀在汽車部件中日益增加的應用，尤其是在混合動力和電池電動車輛中，進一步增加了對白銀的需求。</p>
<p><strong>波動性將持續</strong></p>
<p>Manthey 表示：</p>
<p>白銀常被稱為 “類固醇上的黃金”——它在百分比上往往比黃金波動更大。</p>
<p>白銀的市場規模小於黃金，其需求在工業和投資用途之間分配，使其對經濟波動高度敏感。</p>
<p>因此，儘管白銀在牛市期間可以顯著超越黃金，但在經濟下行時也容易出現更大幅度的下跌，ING 報告指出。</p>
<p>預計明年白銀將繼續保持高波動性。</p>
<p>Manthey 表示：“雖然我們不認為今年的漲幅速度是可持續的，但總體而言，我們預計白銀價格將在強勁的工業需求、受限的供應增長和更有利的宏觀環境的組合下保持良好支撐。”</p>
<p>我們預計 2026 年價格平均為每盎司 55 美元。</p>

荷蘭國際

<p>銀在 2023 年的表現優於黃金，價格上漲近 100%。荷蘭國際預計，由於經濟信號和貿易政策的影響，市場將繼續波動。關鍵因素包括供應短缺、工業需求和投資興趣。黃金/白銀比率下降，表明對銀的信心增強。美國關税和地緣政治不穩定可能會影響價格。荷蘭國際預測到 2026 年銀價將平均達到每盎司 55 美元，這得益於工業需求、供應受限和有利的宏觀因素</p>

<p>Silver has dramatically outperformed gold this year, with prices surging by nearly 100% as of early December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年，白銀的表現遠超黃金，截至 12 月初，價格飆升近 100%。</p>
</div><p>The rally has been marked by sharp swings, driven by shifting economic signals and evolving trade tariff policies, and with high uncertainty persisting, ING Group anticipates further market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一漲勢伴隨着劇烈波動，受到經濟信號變化和貿易關税政策演變的驅動，ING 集團預計在高不確定性持續的情況下，市場將進一步波動。</p>
</div><p>The recent strength of silver is attributable to several key factors: a continued supply deficit, robust industrial demand driven by its essential role in solar technology, EVs, and electronics, ING said in its outlook report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 在其展望報告中表示，白銀近期的強勁表現歸因於幾個關鍵因素：持續的供應短缺、因其在太陽能技術、電動車和電子產品中的重要作用而推動的強勁工業需求。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, there has been a resurgence of investment interest in silver as a more accessible alternative to gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，投資者對白銀的興趣重新回升，白銀被視為比黃金更易獲得的替代品。</p>
</div><p>The gold/silver ratio has dropped significantly from its Liberation Day peak of 105, now sitting at a year-to-date low of below 70.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金/白銀比率從解放日的高峰 105 顯著下降，目前處於年初至今的低點，低於 70。</p>
</div><p>This reduction suggests a growing confidence in silver among institutional investors, according to Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 ING 集團商品策略師 Ewa Manthey 的説法，這一減少表明機構投資者對白銀的信心正在增強。</p>
</div><p><strong>Great silver squeeze</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>偉大的白銀擠壓</strong></p>
</div><p>US tariff uncertainty caused a historic squeeze by diverting metal from London to the US, resulting in COMEX futures consistently trading higher than London prices throughout much of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國關税的不確定性導致歷史性的擠壓，將金屬從倫敦轉移到美國，導致 COMEX 期貨在大部分時間內持續高於倫敦價格。</p>
</div><p>This shift led to a sharp reduction in available silver stocks in London, the main trading center.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一變化導致倫敦可用白銀庫存急劇減少，倫敦是主要的交易中心。</p>
</div><p>The silver market is still grappling with the effects of a historic short squeeze, despite a record inflow of silver into London.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管倫敦的白銀流入創下紀錄，白銀市場仍在努力應對歷史性的空頭擠壓帶來的影響。</p>
</div><p>Lease rates, which represent the annual cost of borrowing silver in London, remain elevated at about 6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在倫敦，租賃利率（代表借入白銀的年成本）仍維持在約 6% 的高位。</p>
</div><p>The situation has put pressure on other regions, as evidenced by Chinese silver exports surging to a record high of over 660 tonnes in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一情況給其他地區帶來了壓力，10 月份中國的白銀出口激增至創紀錄的 660 多噸。</p>
</div><p>As a result, stockpiles in warehouses linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange recently reached their lowest level in nearly a decade, prompting a significant amount of silver to be shipped to London to alleviate the strain there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，與上海期貨交易所相關的倉庫庫存最近達到了近十年來的最低水平，促使大量白銀被運往倫敦以緩解那裏的壓力。</p>
</div><p>Manthey said in the ING report:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 在 ING 報告中表示：</p>
</div><p>There is still a risk of a tariff on silver, with the recent inclusion of the precious metal on the US Geological Survey list of critical minerals increasing the likelihood of US import tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白銀仍面臨關税風險，最近將貴金屬納入美國地質調查局的關鍵礦物名單，增加了美國進口關税的可能性。</p>
</div><p><strong>Tailwinds in 2026</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2026 年的順風</strong></p>
</div><p>“Looking ahead into 2026, silver will continue to be supported by improving investor sentiment towards precious metals and tightening physical balances,” Manthey added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 補充道：“展望 2026 年，白銀將繼續受到投資者對貴金屬的改善情緒和日益緊張的實物平衡的支持。”</p>
</div><p>Silver is poised to benefit from macro factors similar to those supporting gold, including a weaker US dollar, interest rate cuts by the Fed, and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to ongoing geopolitical instability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白銀有望受益於與黃金類似的宏觀因素，包括美元走弱、美聯儲降息以及由於持續的地緣政治不穩定而增加的避險資產需求。</p>
</div><p>Historically, silver has demonstrated superior performance to gold during periods of monetary easing, as a decline in real yields typically boosts both investor interest and industrial usage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，白銀在貨幣寬鬆時期的表現優於黃金，因為實際收益率的下降通常會提升投資者興趣和工業使用。</p>
</div><p>But silver’s outlook is also shaped by fundamentals that differ from gold, according to Manthey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但根據 Manthey 的説法，白銀的前景也受到與黃金不同的基本面因素的影響。</p>
</div><p>Industrial applications consume over half of the total silver supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工業應用消耗了超過一半的白銀總供應。</p>
</div><p>A slowdown in solar demand is anticipated, particularly in China, following several robust years, with installations projected to reach their highest point in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計中國的太陽能需求將放緩，特別是在經歷了幾年的強勁增長後，預計安裝量將在 2025 年達到最高點。</p>
</div><p>Further increasing demand for silver are trends like electrification, necessary power grid enhancements, and the rising incorporation of silver in automotive components, particularly within hybrid and battery electric vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電氣化、必要的電網增強以及白銀在汽車部件中日益增加的應用，尤其是在混合動力和電池電動車輛中，進一步增加了對白銀的需求。</p>
</div><p><strong>Volatility to continue</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>波動性將持續</strong></p>
</div><p>Manthey said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 表示：</p>
</div><p>Silver is often nicknamed “gold on steroids” – it tends to move much more than gold in percentage terms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白銀常被稱為 “類固醇上的黃金”——它在百分比上往往比黃金波動更大。</p>
</div><p>Silver’s market size is smaller than gold’s, and its demand is split between industrial and investment uses, making it highly susceptible to economic fluctuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白銀的市場規模小於黃金，其需求在工業和投資用途之間分配，使其對經濟波動高度敏感。</p>
</div><p>Consequently, while silver can significantly outperform gold during bull markets, it is also prone to steeper declines in economic downturns, according to the ING report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，儘管白銀在牛市期間可以顯著超越黃金，但在經濟下行時也容易出現更大幅度的下跌，ING 報告指出。</p>
</div><p>This high level of volatility is expected to persist for silver next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計明年白銀將繼續保持高波動性。</p>
</div><p>“While we don’t believe that the pace of gains seen this year is sustainable, overall, we expect silver prices to remain well-supported amid the combination of resilient industrial demand, constrained supply growth, and a more favourable macro environment,” Manthey said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 表示：“雖然我們不認為今年的漲幅速度是可持續的，但總體而言，我們預計白銀價格將在強勁的工業需求、受限的供應增長和更有利的宏觀環境的組合下保持良好支撐。”</p>
</div><p>We see prices averaging $55/oz in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們預計 2026 年價格平均為每盎司 55 美元。</p>
</div>

2026 年白銀的波動性預計將持續；荷蘭國際預計價格將平均達到每盎司 55 美元