<p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
<p>美聯儲官員正在努力尋找最佳的利率政策，以平衡對通脹的擔憂與對疲軟勞動力市場的憂慮。</p>
<p>美聯儲理事斯蒂芬·米蘭（Stephen Miran，左）和紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長約翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）表示，他們對通脹並不擔憂。</p>
<p>兩位美聯儲高級官員——一位是更具民粹主義色彩的外部人士，另一位則是中央銀行的意識形態中心——在至少一個問題上達成了一致。他們表示，未來幾個月內，較高的通脹不會對經濟構成問題。</p>
<p>紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長約翰·威廉姆斯是美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的密切盟友，同時也是中央銀行的職業經濟學家，而斯蒂芬·米蘭則是唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統的密切顧問，特朗普本人對鮑威爾持強烈批評態度。本週，兩人均表示對未來幾個月通脹將降温充滿信心。米蘭曾是特朗普提名的美聯儲理事會成員，任期幾個月，期間總統及其高級顧問正在尋找鮑威爾的接替人，鮑威爾的任期將於 5 月結束。</p>
<p>這些評論是在美聯儲官員努力尋找最佳利率政策的背景下發表的，該政策旨在平衡對通脹的擔憂與對疲軟勞動力市場的憂慮。價格上漲使美國人感到不安。同時，面對經濟前景的不確定性，僱主在過去幾個月大幅放緩了招聘。</p>
<p>米蘭在一次演講和隨後的電視採訪中表示，政府統計數據具有誤導性，&#34;潛在&#34;通脹率低於 2.3%，與美聯儲的 2% 目標相差不遠。</p>
<p>他説，官方通脹率為 2.8%，受到住房通脹的誇大影響，而住房通脹仍在受到疫情的影響，同時統計學家在股市上漲時對金融顧問費用的測量也存在問題。</p>
<p>他表示，&#34;統計測量過程中的一些特殊情況&#34;不應影響美聯儲對通脹的看法。</p>
<p>在另一場演講中，威廉姆斯對通脹前景也持樂觀態度。</p>
<p>威廉姆斯表示，儘管關税在今年推高了價格，但影響&#34;更為温和且持續時間更長&#34;，超出了他的預期。</p>
<p>他説，他沒有看到關税對其他價格產生溢出效應的跡象。</p>
<p>&#34;特別是，沒有出現廣泛的供應鏈瓶頸，住房通脹持續下降，工資增長的指標顯示出持續的逐步放緩，&#34;威廉姆斯説。</p>
<p>&#34;這與我在 [紐約] 地區的幾位商業聯繫人所報告的情況一致，他們指出，儘管關税繼續推高他們的投入成本，但價格上漲的速度略有放緩，&#34;威廉姆斯説。</p>
<p>紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長預測，明年的通脹將降至略低於 2.5%，在 2027 年達到美聯儲的 2% 目標。自 2021 年初以來，通脹未曾達到或低於美聯儲的目標。</p>
<p>威廉姆斯表示，他預計關税對價格水平的影響將是&#34;基本一次性的&#34;。米蘭原則上同意，但表示他並不相信關税對核心商品通脹有任何推動作用。</p>
<p>上週，美聯儲因擔憂就業市場疲軟而連續第三次將利率下調 25 個基點。</p>
<p>此次會議有三位官員持異議。米蘭希望下調 50 個基點，而另外兩位官員則希望美聯儲維持利率不變，因擔憂通脹過高。</p>
<p>克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行行長貝絲·哈馬克（Beth Hammack）明年將成為美聯儲利率委員會的投票成員，她表示支持提高利率。</p>
<p>這兩位官員在利率前景上存在分歧。</p>
<p>米蘭和威廉姆斯在低通脹對利率政策的影響上存在不同看法。</p>
<p>在他的發言中，米蘭主張進一步降息，稱勞動力市場一直呈現出疲軟趨勢，這一趨勢早於特朗普政府，且需要降低利率。</p>
<p>如果美聯儲不繼續降息，&#34;到 2027 年我們將處於非常糟糕的境地，因為通脹將降至我們的目標，而勞動力市場將會相當疲軟，因為我們保持了過於緊縮的政策，&#34;他説。</p>
<p>威廉姆斯表示，他認為失業率將在 4.5% 左右達到峯值，並將在接下來的幾年中逐漸下降。</p>
<p>他沒有承諾對利率進行任何改變，稱貨幣政策在 2026 年&#34;處於良好位置&#34;。</p>
<p>-Greg Robb</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
<p>12-15-25 1510ET</p>

威廉姆斯

<p>兩位美聯儲官員，Stephen Miran 和 John Williams，認為未來幾個月通脹不會成為問題。他們相信通脹將會降温，Williams 預測明年通脹將降至略低於 2.5%。Miran 由於勞動力市場疲軟而主張進一步降息，而 Williams 則認為貨幣政策處於良好位置。兩位官員都淡化了關税對通脹的影響。美聯儲最近因對就業市場的擔憂而降息</p>

<p>By Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>Fed officials are struggling to find the interest-rate policy that best balances concerns about inflation with worries over a sluggish labor market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲官員正在努力尋找最佳的利率政策，以平衡對通脹的擔憂與對疲軟勞動力市場的憂慮。</p>
</div><p>Fed governor Stephen Miran, at left, and New York Fed President John Williams say they are not worried about inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲理事斯蒂芬·米蘭（Stephen Miran，左）和紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長約翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）表示，他們對通脹並不擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Two top Federal Reserve officials - one a more populist outsider and the other at the ideological center at the central bank - find themselves in agreement on at least one issue. Higher inflation is not going to be a problem for the economy in the coming months, they say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>兩位美聯儲高級官員——一位是更具民粹主義色彩的外部人士，另一位則是中央銀行的意識形態中心——在至少一個問題上達成了一致。他們表示，未來幾個月內，較高的通脹不會對經濟構成問題。</p>
</div><p>New York Fed President John Williams, a close ally of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a career economist at the central bank, and Stephen Miran, who is a close adviser to President Donald Trump, himself a fierce critic of Powell, both indicated this week that they're confident inflation will cool in coming months. Miran was Trump's pick for a several-month stint on the Fed board of governors while the president and his top advisers complete a search for a replacement for Powell, whose term as chair ends in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長約翰·威廉姆斯是美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的密切盟友，同時也是中央銀行的職業經濟學家，而斯蒂芬·米蘭則是唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統的密切顧問，特朗普本人對鮑威爾持強烈批評態度。本週，兩人均表示對未來幾個月通脹將降温充滿信心。米蘭曾是特朗普提名的美聯儲理事會成員，任期幾個月，期間總統及其高級顧問正在尋找鮑威爾的接替人，鮑威爾的任期將於 5 月結束。</p>
</div><p>The comments come as Fed officials struggle to find the interest-rate policy that best balances concerns about inflation with worries over a sluggish labor market. Rising prices continue to have Americans on edge. At the same time, employers have dramatically slowed their hiring over the past several months in the face of uncertainty about the economic outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些評論是在美聯儲官員努力尋找最佳利率政策的背景下發表的，該政策旨在平衡對通脹的擔憂與對疲軟勞動力市場的憂慮。價格上漲使美國人感到不安。同時，面對經濟前景的不確定性，僱主在過去幾個月大幅放緩了招聘。</p>
</div><p>Miran, in a speech and a subsequent television interview, said government statistics are misleading and &#34;underlying&#34; inflation is running below 2.3%, not far from the Fed's 2% target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>米蘭在一次演講和隨後的電視採訪中表示，政府統計數據具有誤導性，&#34;潛在&#34;通脹率低於 2.3%，與美聯儲的 2% 目標相差不遠。</p>
</div><p>He said the official measure of inflation, at a rate of 2.8%, is being overstated by housing inflation that is still feeling the effects of the pandemic, and also by how statisticians measure financial advisory fees when the stock market goes up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他説，官方通脹率為 2.8%，受到住房通脹的誇大影響，而住房通脹仍在受到疫情的影響，同時統計學家在股市上漲時對金融顧問費用的測量也存在問題。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Quirks in the statistical measurement process&#34; shouldn't cloud the Fed's view on inflation, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，&#34;統計測量過程中的一些特殊情況&#34;不應影響美聯儲對通脹的看法。</p>
</div><p>In a separate speech, Williams was also upbeat about the outlook for inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在另一場演講中，威廉姆斯對通脹前景也持樂觀態度。</p>
</div><p>While tariffs boosted prices this year, Williams said the impact was &#34;more muted and drawn out&#34; than he expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威廉姆斯表示，儘管關税在今年推高了價格，但影響&#34;更為温和且持續時間更長&#34;，超出了他的預期。</p>
</div><p>He said he didn't see any signs of spillover effects from tariffs to other prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他説，他沒有看到關税對其他價格產生溢出效應的跡象。</p>
</div><p>&#34;In particular, no broad-based supply-chain bottlenecks have emerged, shelter inflation has declined steadily, and measures of wage growth point to a continued gradual slowing,&#34; Williams said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;特別是，沒有出現廣泛的供應鏈瓶頸，住房通脹持續下降，工資增長的指標顯示出持續的逐步放緩，&#34;威廉姆斯説。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This is consistent with reports around the [New York] district, where several of my business contacts have noted that, while tariffs continue to drive up their input costs, the pace of price increases has eased slightly,&#34; Williams said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;這與我在 [紐約] 地區的幾位商業聯繫人所報告的情況一致，他們指出，儘管關税繼續推高他們的投入成本，但價格上漲的速度略有放緩，&#34;威廉姆斯説。</p>
</div><p>The New York Fed president predicted inflation would drop to just under 2.5% next year before reaching the Fed's 2% target in 2027. Inflation hasn't been at or below the Fed's target since early 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長預測，明年的通脹將降至略低於 2.5%，在 2027 年達到美聯儲的 2% 目標。自 2021 年初以來，通脹未曾達到或低於美聯儲的目標。</p>
</div><p>Williams said he expected tariffs to have a &#34;largely one-off&#34; effect on price levels. Miran agreed in principle but said he was not convinced tariffs had boosted core-goods inflation at all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威廉姆斯表示，他預計關税對價格水平的影響將是&#34;基本一次性的&#34;。米蘭原則上同意，但表示他並不相信關税對核心商品通脹有任何推動作用。</p>
</div><p>Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the third straight meeting due to concerns about the softening job market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，美聯儲因擔憂就業市場疲軟而連續第三次將利率下調 25 個基點。</p>
</div><p>There were three dissents. Miran wanted a half-percentage-point cut, while two other officials wanted the Fed to leave rates unchanged because of concerns that inflation was too high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次會議有三位官員持異議。米蘭希望下調 50 個基點，而另外兩位官員則希望美聯儲維持利率不變，因擔憂通脹過高。</p>
</div><p>Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who will be a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate committee next year, said she favored a higher rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行行長貝絲·哈馬克（Beth Hammack）明年將成為美聯儲利率委員會的投票成員，她表示支持提高利率。</p>
</div><p>The two officials differ on the outlook for interest rates</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這兩位官員在利率前景上存在分歧。</p>
</div><p>Miran and Williams differ on what low inflation means for interest-rate policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>米蘭和威廉姆斯在低通脹對利率政策的影響上存在不同看法。</p>
</div><p>In his remarks, Miran advocated for more rate cuts, saying that the labor market has been on a weakening trend that predated the Trump administration and that lower rates were needed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他的發言中，米蘭主張進一步降息，稱勞動力市場一直呈現出疲軟趨勢，這一趨勢早於特朗普政府，且需要降低利率。</p>
</div><p>If the Fed doesn't continue to cut rates, &#34;we will be in a really bad spot in 2027, because inflation will be down towards our target and the labor market will be quite a bit weaker because we kept policy too tight,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美聯儲不繼續降息，&#34;到 2027 年我們將處於非常糟糕的境地，因為通脹將降至我們的目標，而勞動力市場將會相當疲軟，因為我們保持了過於緊縮的政策，&#34;他説。</p>
</div><p>Williams said he thought the unemployment rate would peak at around 4.5% and gradually come down over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威廉姆斯表示，他認為失業率將在 4.5% 左右達到峯值，並將在接下來的幾年中逐漸下降。</p>
</div><p>He didn't commit to any changes in rates, saying monetary policy was &#34;well positioned&#34; going into 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他沒有承諾對利率進行任何改變，稱貨幣政策在 2026 年&#34;處於良好位置&#34;。</p>
</div><p>-Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創作，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 與道瓊斯新聞通訊和《華爾街日報》獨立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞通訊</p>
</div><p>12-15-25 1510ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12-15-25 1510ET</p>
</div>

兩位通常意見不一致的美聯儲官員都表示，未來通脹將不再是一個問題