<p>澳大利亞經濟正日益表現出與進一步貨幣緊縮一致的條件，聯邦銀行經濟學家因此預測澳大利亞儲備銀行將在 2 月份加息 25 個基點，儘管市場對近期行動持懷疑態度。</p>
<p>我之前在另一個地方發佈了關於 2 月份加息的另外兩個預測：</p>
<ul>
<li>花旗預測 2026 年澳儲行將加息兩次，2 月加息後接着在 5 月加息，因通脹風險上升</li>
<li>國家澳大利亞銀行預計澳儲行將在 2026 年加息兩次，與市場對延長維持利率的預期相悖</li>
</ul>
<p>聯邦銀行的核心論點是，經濟動能證明比澳儲行預期的更強勁和持久。經濟增長反彈速度超出預期，預計 2025 年下半年 GDP 將加速增長，經濟活動現在被評估為接近潛在水平，而非低於潛在水平。這一回升是廣泛的，以家庭消費為主導，因實際可支配收入恢復和儲蓄緩衝減少。</p>
<p>勞動力市場狀況仍然是緊縮呼聲的關鍵驅動因素。就業增長保持韌性，閒置產能指標顯示出有限的鬆動，儘管人口增長放緩，失業率預計仍將保持在低位。由於工資增長相對於生產率仍然較高，聯邦銀行認為國內成本壓力與通脹順利迴歸目標之間仍然不一致，需進一步政策約束。</p>
<p>通脹動態是另一個關鍵因素。儘管總體通脹有所緩和，但基礎指標卻表現出粘性，服務業通脹和修剪均值 CPI 僅逐漸緩解。消費者和市場基於的通脹預期也有所上升，令人擔憂如果政策設置不進一步收緊，通脹的持續性可能會變得更加根深蒂固。</p>
<p>聯邦銀行還指出，金融條件意外地放鬆了。股市反彈，澳元有時貶值，家庭支出超出預期，這些都可能削弱去通脹的進程。在這種背景下，利率維持過久可能會導致需求重新加速，超過供給，尤其是在持續的產能約束下。</p>
<p>儘管承認時機微妙平衡，聯邦銀行認為澳儲行會判斷，提前採取行動——而不是等待更清晰的通脹惡化——是風險更低的策略。2 月份加息將增強銀行的抗通脹信譽，並幫助確保通脹可持續地迴歸目標，即使這意味着政策需要更長時間保持緊縮。</p>

<p>聯邦銀行經濟學家預測，由於經濟增長強勁、就業市場韌性以及通脹持續，澳大利亞儲備銀行將在 2 月份加息 25 個基點。花旗銀行和國民澳大利亞銀行也預計 2 月份會加息，並預計在 2026 年會有進一步的加息。聯邦銀行認為，需要儘早採取行動以維持通脹控制和金融穩定</p>

<p>Australia’s economy is increasingly exhibiting conditions consistent with further monetary tightening, leading Commonwealth Bank economists to forecast a 25 basis point Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in February, despite market scepticism around near-term action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳大利亞經濟正日益表現出與進一步貨幣緊縮一致的條件，聯邦銀行經濟學家因此預測澳大利亞儲備銀行將在 2 月份加息 25 個基點，儘管市場對近期行動持懷疑態度。</p>
</div><p>I posted earlier on another two calls for a February rate hike:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我之前在另一個地方發佈了關於 2 月份加息的另外兩個預測：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks rise</li>
<li>NAB sees RBA hiking twice in 2026, clashing with market expectations for extended hold</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>花旗預測 2026 年澳儲行將加息兩次，2 月加息後接着在 5 月加息，因通脹風險上升</li>
<li>國家澳大利亞銀行預計澳儲行將在 2026 年加息兩次，與市場對延長維持利率的預期相悖</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The core of CBA’s argument is that economic momentum is proving stronger and more persistent than the RBA anticipated. Growth has rebounded faster than expected, with GDP accelerating through the second half of 2025 and activity now assessed as running around potential rather than below it. The pickup has been broad-based, led by household consumption as real disposable incomes recover and savings buffers are drawn down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯邦銀行的核心論點是，經濟動能證明比澳儲行預期的更強勁和持久。經濟增長反彈速度超出預期，預計 2025 年下半年 GDP 將加速增長，經濟活動現在被評估為接近潛在水平，而非低於潛在水平。這一回升是廣泛的，以家庭消費為主導，因實際可支配收入恢復和儲蓄緩衝減少。</p>
</div><p>Labour market conditions remain a key driver of the tightening call. Employment growth has stayed resilient, spare capacity indicators point to limited slack, and unemployment is forecast to remain low even as population growth eases. With wages growth still elevated relative to productivity, CBA argues that domestic cost pressures remain inconsistent with inflation returning smoothly to target without further policy restraint.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勞動力市場狀況仍然是緊縮呼聲的關鍵驅動因素。就業增長保持韌性，閒置產能指標顯示出有限的鬆動，儘管人口增長放緩，失業率預計仍將保持在低位。由於工資增長相對於生產率仍然較高，聯邦銀行認為國內成本壓力與通脹順利迴歸目標之間仍然不一致，需進一步政策約束。</p>
</div><p>Inflation dynamics are another critical factor. While headline inflation has moderated, underlying measures are proving sticky, with services inflation and trimmed-mean CPI easing only gradually. Inflation expectations have also edged higher across consumer and market-based measures, raising concerns that inflation persistence could become more entrenched if policy settings are not tightened further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通脹動態是另一個關鍵因素。儘管總體通脹有所緩和，但基礎指標卻表現出粘性，服務業通脹和修剪均值 CPI 僅逐漸緩解。消費者和市場基於的通脹預期也有所上升，令人擔憂如果政策設置不進一步收緊，通脹的持續性可能會變得更加根深蒂固。</p>
</div><p>CBA also points to evidence that financial conditions have loosened unintentionally. Equity markets have rallied, the Australian dollar has depreciated at times, and household spending has surprised to the upside, all of which risk undermining the disinflation process. Against this backdrop, holding rates steady for too long could allow demand to re-accelerate faster than supply, especially given ongoing capacity constraints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯邦銀行還指出，金融條件意外地放鬆了。股市反彈，澳元有時貶值，家庭支出超出預期，這些都可能削弱去通脹的進程。在這種背景下，利率維持過久可能會導致需求重新加速，超過供給，尤其是在持續的產能約束下。</p>
</div><p>While acknowledging that timing is finely balanced, CBA believes the RBA will judge that acting earlier — rather than waiting for clearer inflation deterioration — is the lower-risk strategy. A February hike would reinforce the Bank’s inflation-fighting credibility and help ensure inflation returns sustainably to target, even if it means running policy more restrictive for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管承認時機微妙平衡，聯邦銀行認為澳儲行會判斷，提前採取行動——而不是等待更清晰的通脹惡化——是風險更低的策略。2 月份加息將增強銀行的抗通脹信譽，並幫助確保通脹可持續地迴歸目標，即使這意味着政策需要更長時間保持緊縮。</p>
</div>

CBA 認為由於經濟增長過熱，澳大利亞儲備銀行將在 2 月份加息。花旗銀行和澳大利亞國民銀行也預計 2 月份會加息