--- title: "Gold: Goldman Sachs Predicts Major Upside Through 2026" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270196918.md" description: "Goldman Sachs predicts a significant upside for gold, projecting prices to reach $4,900/oz by December 2026, driven by central bank demand. The bank also recommends a \"long copper / short aluminum\" trade due to supply-demand dynamics. Gold's resilience is highlighted by its recovery above the 100-hour moving average, with targets set at $4,500 and $5,000. Meanwhile, aluminum faces a bearish outlook with a 20% drop expected by 2026. The analysis underscores a preference for gold and copper as strategic reserves and infrastructure essentials." datetime: "2025-12-18T18:05:51.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270196918.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270196918.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270196918.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270196918.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270196918.md) # Gold: Goldman Sachs Predicts Major Upside Through 2026 The global metals market is witnessing a significant divergence as structural demand fuels a bullish outlook for gold and copper, while cyclical headwinds pressure industrial materials. Goldman Sachs has doubled down on its "long gold" conviction, projecting a double-digit rally by 2026. - Gold's $4,900 Target: Goldman Sachs has identified a 14% upside risk for gold, forecasting prices to hit $4,900/oz by December 2026, driven by central bank demand and its role as a strategic reserve. - Copper vs. Aluminum: The bank maintains a $15,000/ton target for copper by 2035, recommending a "long copper / short aluminum" pair trade to capitalize on the widening supply-demand gap. - Bearish Pressure: Aluminum and iron ore are facing a "full oversupply cycle," with aluminum expected to drop nearly 20% by the end of 2026 as global surpluses expand. ### Gold Technicals: Defending the 100-Hour Moving Average Following Goldman's optimistic report, gold price action has remained remarkably resilient. After reaching a daily high of **$4,375.17**—falling just short of the October all-time high of **$4,381.84**—the price faced a minor corrective rotation. Crucially, the intraday dip found aggressive buyers near the **100-hour moving average** (the blue line on your chart). Despite briefly slipping below this level to a low of **$4,308.81**, the price failed to stay down. The quick recovery above the **$4,319** moving average confirms that bullish bias remains intact. ### The Path to $5,000: Targets and Risk Levels To validate Goldman Sachs' 12.8% projected run for 2026, the technical "roadmap" must align with the fundamental narrative. Here is what to watch: #### The Bullish Objective For the uptrend to accelerate, buyers need to: 1. Establish a firm base above the 100-hour moving average ($4,319). 2. Clear the October all-time high of $4,381.84. A sustained break above this level is the "green light" for a move toward psychological milestones at $4,500 and eventually the $4,900–$5,000 zone. #### The Bearish Risk If the sellers are to gain a foothold, they must: 1. Force a decisive close below the 100-hour MA. 2. Push the price toward the 200-hour moving average (currently at $4,268.85). Only a break below the "green line" would signal a shift in control from the buyers to the sellers in the short term. ### Structural vs. Cyclical: The Metals Divide Goldman's outlook highlights a clear "quality" preference in commodities. While **Gold** and **Copper** are viewed as structural necessities for central bank reserves and AI/Green energy infrastructure, **Aluminum** and **Iron Ore** are suffering from weakening Chinese demand and rising global supply. This makes technical levels in gold even more vital, as the "buy the dip" mentality is supported by long-term institutional positioning. ### Watch the Video Analysis In the video above, **Greg Michalowski**, author of _Attacking Currency Trends_, provides a real-time breakdown of the gold charts. 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