---
title: "《大行》招銀國際料明年國內居民房產價值縮水  消費降級延續"
description: "招銀國際研究報告預測，2026 年國內居民消費將受到資產縮水和收入預期修復緩慢的影響，導致消費降級。報告建議關注在全球化佈局有進展的企業，以對沖內需波動風險。選股方面，推薦關注農夫山泉、華潤飲料、鉅子生物及穎通控股等公司。"
type: "news"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270439550.md"
published_at: "2025-12-22T03:47:15.000Z"
---

# 《大行》招銀國際料明年國內居民房產價值縮水  消費降級延續

> 招銀國際研究報告預測，2026 年國內居民消費將受到資產縮水和收入預期修復緩慢的影響，導致消費降級。報告建議關注在全球化佈局有進展的企業，以對沖內需波動風險。選股方面，推薦關注農夫山泉、華潤飲料、鉅子生物及穎通控股等公司。

招銀國際研究報告指，預期 2026 年國內居民消費核心為「資產縮水 + 收入預期修復緩慢」。資產方面，一線次新房集中入市，銀行房地產相關的資產批量處置或推動二手房價探底，居民房產價值縮水，將抑制消費意願。需求方面，外貿不確定性拖累就業收入，消費「降級」延續，支出傾向剛性需求及低成本情緒慰藉。

該行認為，在國內消費環境不確定性延續的背景下，全球化佈局有顯着進展的企業，可通過海外市場拓展對沖內需波動風險。

選股方面，在食品飲品板塊中，該行建議關注受惠於果汁及功能飲品等類別的農夫山泉 (09633.HK)，以及包裝水市場份額跌幅收窄且估值處於低位的華潤飲料 (02460.HK)。在美容護膚板塊中，該行建議關注估值較有吸引力的鉅子生物 (02367.HK) 及穎通控股 (06883.HK)。

### Related Stocks

- [02367.HK - 鉅子生物](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/02367.HK.md)
- [06883.HK - 穎通控股](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/06883.HK.md)
- [09633.HK - 農夫山泉](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/09633.HK.md)
- [02460.HK - 華潤飲料](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/02460.HK.md)

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