--- title: "華爾街普遍看好 2026 年美股前景 這或許是個隱憂" description: "華爾街預測 2026 年美股將上漲約 11%，但市場觀察者擔憂預測過於集中。奧本海默預測標普 500 指數最高達 8100 點，Stifel Nicolaus & Co.預測最低為 7000 點，差距僅 16%。一致觀點被視為反向信號，市場風險顯現，通脹高於目標，失業率上升，AI 支出未見收益。" type: "news" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270485558.md" published_at: "2025-12-22T11:41:54.000Z" --- # 華爾街普遍看好 2026 年美股前景 這或許是個隱憂 > 華爾街預測 2026 年美股將上漲約 11%，但市場觀察者擔憂預測過於集中。奧本海默預測標普 500 指數最高達 8100 點，Stifel Nicolaus & Co.預測最低為 7000 點，差距僅 16%。一致觀點被視為反向信號，市場風險顯現，通脹高於目標，失業率上升，AI 支出未見收益。 華爾街股市預測者向來以看漲著稱，但他們對 2026 年的當前預期水平卻令部分市場觀察者憂心忡忡。數據顯示，各大機構賣方策略師對標普 500 指數的年終目標值呈現近十年最集中的分佈態勢。其中奧本海默預測最高達 8100 點，Stifel Nicolaus & Co.預測最低為 7000 點，年度預期值的差距僅為 16%。如此一致的觀點通常被視為反向信號 —— 當所有人傾向同一方向時，失衡往往會自我修正。而當前市場風險已然顯現。通脹率持續高於美聯儲目標，令市場對貨幣政策寬鬆的預期面臨落空風險。失業率近月穩步攀升，而鉅額人工智能支出尚未轉化為實際收益。儘管如此，策略師們仍平均預期 2026 年美股將上漲約 11%，即便此前已連續三年實現兩位數回報。（彭博） ### Related Stocks - [SPY.US - 標普 500 指數股票型基金](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPY.US.md) - [.SPX.US - 標普 500 指數](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | A Look Into S&P Global Inc's Price Over Earnings | S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) is currently priced at $409.70, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04%. However, the stock ha | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276067419.md) | | LIVE MARKETS-A new era for industrials? | Main US indexes are gaining, with the S&P 500 up ~0.5%. Utilities lead sector gains while the dollar declines. Bank of A | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275934016.md) | | Why S&P Global stock tumbled by nearly 10% on Tuesday | Investors were expecting a better final quarter of 2025 from the famous financial index operator and information service | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275527607.md) | | Wall St Week Ahead-Walmart, economic data await investors confronting AI 'whack-a-mole' | U.S. stock investors are bracing for volatility due to AI disruption fears, with Walmart's earnings and key economic dat | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275888654.md) | | Trump Declares 'Largest Tax Refund Season Ever' In 2026: 'One Big Beautiful Bill' Secures Everything Needed Until 2030 | President Trump predicts 2026 will see the largest tax refund season ever, attributing this to the "One Big Beautiful Bi | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275579426.md) | --- > **免責聲明**：本文內容僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議。