--- title: "2026 Major Tests for the U.S. Stock Market: Earnings Growth, AI Returns, and Federal Reserve Policy" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270731521.md" description: "The U.S. stock market faces three major challenges in 2026: corporate earnings need to maintain strong growth, Federal Reserve policies must be moderate, and continuous investment in the artificial intelligence sector is required. The U.S. stock market has achieved double-digit growth over the past three years, and to continue this upward trend in 2026, these challenges must be overcome. The S&P 500 is expected to reach a target level of 7,400 points by the end of 2026, while Deutsche Bank predicts a target of 8,000 points. Earnings growth will be driven by more companies, with artificial intelligence and fiscal stimulus policies being key factors" datetime: "2025-12-24T13:45:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270731521.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270731521.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270731521.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270731521.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270731521.md) # 2026 Major Tests for the U.S. Stock Market: Earnings Growth, AI Returns, and Federal Reserve Policy According to Zhitong Finance APP, the US stock market is about to end a three-year streak of double-digit percentage gains. To continue this upward trend in 2026 (achieving a fourth consecutive year of growth), it will face a challenging situation that requires strong corporate earnings growth, the Federal Reserve to maintain a moderate policy stance, and continued investment in the field of artificial intelligence. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20251224/1766583326957617.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) The bull market in US stocks, which began in October 2022, has benefited from the optimistic outlook for artificial intelligence, interest rate cuts, and sustained economic growth, despite market fluctuations due to recession fears. Throughout the year, the stock market experienced rollercoaster-like volatility, with stock prices plummeting significantly after the Trump administration announced unexpected tariffs in April. The S&P 500 index has risen over 17% with only a few trading days left in 2025, having increased by 23% in 2024 and 24% in 2023. CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall stated that for next year's strong double-digit returns, the market needs to be "fully prepared." Stovall pointed out, "Many adverse factors lead me to believe that while we may have an unexpectedly good year, I do not think it will be another great year." He predicts a target level of 7,400 points for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2026, an increase of about 7% from current levels. Many market strategists expect strong market performance in 2026, with some predictions for the S&P 500 index suggesting gains of over 10%, including a target of 8,000 points set by Deutsche Bank, which is about 16% higher than the current index level. ## Can Earnings and Artificial Intelligence Provide a Boost? Bullish investors in the stock market point to an optimistic outlook for US corporate earnings. Tkindel Dillon, head of earnings research at the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), stated that earnings for S&P 500 constituent companies are expected to grow by 13% in 2025 and by over 15% in 2026. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20251224/1766583339925400.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Analysts expect that the drivers of earnings growth will no longer be limited to a few tech and tech-related giants but will be propelled by a broader range of companies. This is due to fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy providing strong support for the economy and consumer spending. Dillon from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) noted that seven companies with extremely high market capitalizations, including Nvidia (NVDA.US), Apple (AAPL.US), and Amazon (AMZN.US), are referred to by the market as the "Magnificent Seven." In 2024, these seven companies are expected to achieve a profit growth rate of 37%, while the profit growth rate for the remaining companies in the S&P 500 index is only 7% By 2026, this gap is expected to narrow significantly: the earnings of the top seven companies by market capitalization are projected to grow by 23%, while the earnings growth of the remaining companies in the index is expected to be 13%. "If the earnings growth of the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 index can improve— we have already seen some signs of this— it will certainly help the stock market achieve double-digit returns next year," said Christina Hooper, Chief Market Strategist at Invesco. Investors point out that, against the backdrop of current stock valuations having risen to historical highs with limited further upside potential, profit growth will become the core factor determining market performance. One of the key drivers supporting valuations is the strong optimism in the market regarding artificial intelligence technology— reflected both in the massive capital investments in AI infrastructure and in the robust expectations for its commercial applications. However, recently, skepticism regarding the return on capital expenditures related to AI has increased, leading to pressure on technology stocks and the AI concept sector, and this controversy may continue to dominate industry valuation logic in 2026. Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial, stated: "If companies start to cut back on previously projected capital expenditures, and the market loses confidence in the returns from AI investments... then this year's performance may be flat or even slightly down." ## Dovish Federal Reserve and Mixed Historical Signals Investors indicate that another key factor for strong stock market performance is a moderate economic slowdown, which paves the way for easing inflation and further interest rate cuts, but does not lead to a recession. Federal funds futures show that investors expect a cumulative rate cut of 175 basis points in 2024 and 2025, with at least two more cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026. Yuan Ma, Chief Investment Strategist at PNC Financial Services Group, said: "The factor I look forward to the most is the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance." Investors are paying attention to U.S. President Donald Trump's expected decision on the Federal Reserve Chair in early 2026, viewing it as a signal that the Fed will lean more dovishly, but they are also concerned about the potential testing of its independence. Historical data provides mixed conclusions regarding potential returns in 2026. On the positive side, according to LPL Research, the average gain in the fourth year of seven bull markets that lasted four years since 1950 was 12.8%, with six of those years achieving positive returns for the entire year. However, in midterm election years, the uncertainty brought by the election of a new Congress often leads to poor stock market performance. According to CFRA's Stovall, the average gain of the S&P 500 index in midterm election years is only 3.8%, compared to an average increase of 11% in the other three years of a presidential term ### 相關股票 - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [Deutsche Bank AG (DB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DB.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Got $5,000? 3 AI supercycle growth stocks at every layer of the stack](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281690338.md) - [Six in 10 Investors Own AI Stocks. Should You?](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281259828.md) - [Insig AI Plans Growth Drive and Eyes Nasdaq Dual Listing](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281311983.md) - [The AI Revolution and The 90s Internet Boom](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281005956.md) - [Letter from the Editor Introducing AI Intelligence on American Banker](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281266312.md)