--- title: "BlackRock Think Tank: Gold prices and the stock market show correlated fluctuations, but the long-term logic of gold remains unchanged" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270816639.md" description: "BlackRock's think tank stated that although gold prices fluctuate in tandem with the stock market, the long-term investment logic of gold remains unchanged. Gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset and has strengthened recently due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, a surge in central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions. BlackRock pointed out that gold has temporarily shifted to a momentum trading target, with increased short-term volatility, but the long-term allocation logic remains unchanged. Data shows that gold has a slight positive correlation with global stock markets and has been swept up in the trading wave of early growth stocks and other themes" datetime: "2025-12-26T03:14:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270816639.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270816639.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270816639.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270816639.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270816639.md) # BlackRock Think Tank: Gold prices and the stock market show correlated fluctuations, but the long-term logic of gold remains unchanged According to the Zhitong Finance APP, BlackRock's think tank has stated that gold prices, which have been rising all year, have recently reached a new historical high. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, a continued surge in central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions, international gold prices continue to strengthen, with COMEX gold briefly breaking through $4,500 per ounce. This has brought new confusion to investors: has the investment logic of gold assets changed in the context of rising gold prices alongside the stock market? How can one seize the opportunity for gold allocation? BlackRock pointed out that gold seems to have temporarily transformed into an asset suitable for momentum trading. While this may lead to more short-term volatility, when gold prices weaken, there may be opportunities for moderate allocation. In the long run, the underlying logic of allocating gold has not changed. Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset. Since the fall of 2024, gold has continued to strengthen, with an increase of over 70% in less than a year. Although there was a pullback in gold prices in mid-October this year without any obvious negative news, it has now regained its losses. At the end of August this year, BlackRock suggested that gold was about to face the possibility of seasonal fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, as well as historical instances where gold outperformed U.S. stocks during periods of increased market volatility. However, the actual situation was quite the opposite; aside from a poor trading day in early October, the seasonal volatility of U.S. stocks, as measured by the VIX index, did not occur. On the contrary, U.S. stocks rose in September and October, with only a slight pullback in early November. Gold did not serve as a diversification tool but instead tended to follow the trends of U.S. stocks. BlackRock stated that although there is no fundamental reason for gold and the stock market to move in the same direction, technical reasons are becoming increasingly prominent: gold has become another manifestation of momentum trading, where investors chase and buy assets that have risen significantly. Data shows that gold has a slight positive correlation with the MSCI ACWI index, which measures the global stock market. When comparing gold with stocks that exhibit price momentum characteristics, this correlation significantly increases. In other words, gold has been swept into the trading wave of early growth stocks and other themes, which have dominated market trends for most of this fall. Like many of these trades, gold has benefited from the frenzied influx of investors. However, when these trades came under pressure in October this year, gold was also sold off by investors, similar to other momentum themes like early growth stocks. What does the future investment outlook for gold look like? The firm believes that the long-term rationale for holding gold has not changed. Although gold cannot hedge against stock market risks, it remains an effective tool for dealing with a weakening dollar. Over the past five years, gold has consistently shown a negative correlation with the U.S. dollar index (DXY), with a correlation coefficient around -0.60. If a weakening dollar remains a long-term risk, then gold is still a useful portfolio tool. Related to the dollar's movements are market concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation, which have not been alleviated during the U.S. government shutdown. In the long run, gold's performance remains closely tied to government debt levels, and the current rapid growth of U.S. government debt has reached unprecedented levels outside of wartime and economic recession periods ### 相關股票 - [SPDR Gold Shares (GLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GLD.US.md) - [FL2CSOPGOLD (07299.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/07299.HK.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Here's How Much $100 Invested In BlackRock 20 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281221836.md) - [Has Gold Found a Bottom?](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281565333.md) - [Gold’s 200-Day Bounce: Reversal Signal or Market Trap?](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281422495.md) - [Mexican Gold Announces Change of Chief Financial Officer | MEXGF Stock News](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281576292.md) - [Maple Gold Mines Grants Annual Equity Incentives to Align Leadership with Shareholders](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281586389.md)