---
title: "What supports Waymo's hundred billion dollar valuation: autonomous ride-hailing, delivery services, technology licensing"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271073932.md"
description: "Waymo is in talks for a new round of financing, targeting a valuation of $100 billion, which is 280 times its annual revenue, far exceeding other ride-hailing companies. Despite facing minor setbacks, Waymo's rapid expansion demonstrates its growth potential. The company has completed 14 million paid autonomous driving trips without safety drivers, with annual revenue exceeding $350 million, and plans to add robotaxi services in 5 more cities by 2026. Analysts predict that by 2030, annual revenue could reach $2.5 billion, with the valuation multiple dropping to 40 times"
datetime: "2025-12-30T07:25:43.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271073932.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271073932.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271073932.md)
---

> 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271073932.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271073932.md)


# What supports Waymo's hundred billion dollar valuation: autonomous ride-hailing, delivery services, technology licensing

Can Waymo support a valuation of $100 billion? This is the question that investors are about to answer. As the autonomous ride-hailing company under Google's parent company Alphabet, Waymo is negotiating a new round of financing, aiming for a valuation equivalent to 280 times its annual revenue—this multiple far exceeds that of other ride-hailing companies.

Despite recent minor setbacks such as service suspension during a power outage in San Francisco, Waymo's rapid expansion in recent months seems to indicate its capability to grow into a company that matches its valuation. With new users added in more cities and the launch of new services (whether capturing market share from Uber and Lyft or tapping into entirely new demands), its revenue is expected to continue growing.

As of this year, the Google-controlled company has completed over 14 million paid autonomous driving trips without safety drivers, three times that of 2024. Currently, it offers paid ride services in five cities, with annual revenue exceeding $350 million. The company plans to open its autonomous taxi (robotaxi) services to the public in at least five new cities by 2026. A recent forecast by Morgan Stanley analysts released in January indicates that by 2030, Waymo's annual revenue could reach at least $2.5 billion.

Evan Schlossman, an investor at venture capital firm SuRo Capital, has been closely following Waymo's developments. He stated, "Waymo is a unique company with both software and hardware capabilities, and it can see rapid growth in its large revenue base without relying on extreme assumptions." He believes that Waymo's future business coverage area is expected to expand to about five times its current size, a prediction that is not unreasonable.

If annual sales reach $2.5 billion, Waymo's expected valuation multiple would drop to 40 times revenue. Even so, in comparison, both Uber and Lyft have revenue multiples of less than 3 times. Although the growth rates of these two companies may be far lower than Waymo's, they are expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of mid-teens (around 15%) by 2025, and both have already become profitable.

It remains unclear to what extent the popularity of autonomous taxis will erode the demand for traditional ride-hailing services. Morgan Stanley analysts predicted in a report this month that if the demand for autonomous taxis completely supplements the demand for human-driven ride-hailing, Uber's compound annual growth rate over the next seven years will reach 14%; however, if autonomous taxis replace some of the trips originally provided by human drivers, Uber's growth rate during the same period will drop to single digits.

One of Waymo's significant advantages is that its revenue sources may extend beyond ride-hailing services. Waymo's co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana stated that the company plans to expand its business from autonomous taxis to local delivery and long-haul freight, ultimately licensing its autonomous driving technology to automobile manufacturers.

In October this year, Waymo announced a partnership with delivery platform DoorDash to launch an autonomous food delivery service in Phoenix, which may be a preview of its expansion into new businesses In Uber's business structure, food delivery accounts for one-third of revenue and is growing faster than ride-hailing services; after excluding stock compensation, depreciation, and amortization, food delivery contributes about 40% of operating profit.

For Waymo, licensing software to automakers may take time, but such licensing fees are expected to ultimately enhance profit margins—because the management costs of maintaining and improving software may not be as high as deploying more autonomous ride-hailing vehicles.

Fortunately for Waymo, if this financing progresses, there are precedents for cash-burning ride-hailing startups eventually realizing valuation. In December 2014, Uber, still in its private phase, raised funds at a valuation of $40 billion, which was double the valuation from the previous round of financing in June of that year and the highest valuation for a venture-backed startup at the time, attracting widespread attention from investors and analysts. At that time, Uber had only been established for 5 years and had revenues of only a few hundred million dollars (the specific amount was not publicly disclosed).

It turned out that concerns about Uber's valuation were excessive. In 2015, Uber's net revenue was approximately $1.5 billion, roughly three times that of 2014, which meant that its investors' investment multiple at that time was about 27 times the expected sales.

**Tesla's Advantages**

Although Waymo does not need to pay human drivers to operate its service, there are still many uncertainties regarding other long-term costs. The insurance costs for autonomous vehicles are a key uncertainty, and another major concern is the high cost of the detection sensors and supporting hardware installed on Waymo vehicles.

In terms of hardware costs, Waymo is at a disadvantage compared to Tesla. Tesla's autonomous vehicles use lower-cost cameras for road mapping and currently only offer services to ride-hailing passengers in a few cities, with human drivers supervising. Morgan Stanley analysts estimated in a report this month that Waymo's current operating cost per mile is about $1.43, while Tesla's is only $0.81.

Whether this gap will translate into a long-term advantage for Tesla remains to be seen. Morgan Stanley analysts stated that the new vehicles Waymo plans to deploy in 2026 could reduce operating costs to between $0.99 and $1.08 per mile. Part of the reason is that Waymo is testing lower-cost base vehicles (models without autonomous driving technology) from Hyundai and ZEEKR, rather than the high-end Jaguar I-Pace models currently used by most public ride-hailing services. Additionally, if the safety record of autonomous ride-hailing vehicles continues to improve, insurance costs may also decrease.

Aside from cost factors, in terms of regulatory approvals, Waymo has a clear advantage over other autonomous ride-hailing competitors. Like Tesla and Zoox, the autonomous ride-hailing company owned by Amazon, Waymo is still waiting for the relevant permits to charge passengers in operational cities. Long-term bullish venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya pointed out on the X platform: "Tesla must prove that its error tolerance is at least equal to or better than Waymo's; that is its responsibility." He believes that Tesla needs to demonstrate such performance in order to persuade regulators to allow it to expand its business more broadly.

However, even if Tesla or Zoox obtains the relevant permits, Waymo has already established a solid lead by being the first to enter multiple major cities. If Waymo can continue to focus aggressively on expansion and market share competition like Uber did in its early development stage, its competitive barriers may be even higher than Uber's—currently, Uber's market value is more than 20 times that of its competitor Lyft.

When Uber went public in 2019, its market value was $82 billion, not far from its highest private valuation. Today, Uber has become profitable, its business is more diversified, and its market value is about twice that of when it went public. Waymo's investors seem to be preparing for a similar bet next

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