--- title: "The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reveal disagreements on interest rate cuts: Most officials expect continued easing, but there are doubts about the timing and magnitude" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271146396.md" description: "According to the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes, most officials believe that further rate cuts are appropriate in the context of declining inflation, but there are differences regarding the timing and magnitude of the cuts. The meeting decided to lower the benchmark interest rate to 3.5%-3.75% with a vote of 9 to 3. Some officials supported a 50 basis point cut, while others advocated for keeping the rates unchanged. The minutes also show significant differences among policymakers regarding future interest rate forecasts" datetime: "2025-12-30T22:22:07.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271146396.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271146396.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271146396.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271146396.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271146396.md) # The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reveal disagreements on interest rate cuts: Most officials expect continued easing, but there are doubts about the timing and magnitude According to the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on December 9-10, **most Federal Reserve officials believe that further rate cuts are appropriate as long as inflation declines over time**. However, the records show that **officials still have disagreements on when to cut rates and by how much**. The Minutes highlighted the difficulties policymakers faced in their recent decision. The decision slightly reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged when it meets again in January 2026. The Minutes stated, “Some officials who supported lowering the policy rate at this meeting indicated that this decision was a ‘delicate balance,’ or that they could have supported keeping the target rate range unchanged.” After the release of the Minutes, the probability of a rate cut in January based on federal funds futures contracts slightly decreased to about 15%. Stephen Stanley, Chief U.S. Economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, stated that **the vote in favor of a rate cut in a deeply divided committee demonstrates Chairman Jerome Powell's continued influence.** “The committee could have easily made any decision, and the Federal Reserve ultimately eased policy, which clearly indicates that Chairman Powell pushed for the rate cut,” Stanley wrote in a report to clients. Officials voted 9 to 3 earlier this month to lower the benchmark rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, bringing it to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. Governor Stephen Miran voted against this action, supporting a 50 basis point cut; while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid voted against it, advocating for keeping rates unchanged. The rate forecasts for 2025 showed deeper divisions among the broader group of 19 policymakers. Six officials indicated their opposition to the rate cut by suggesting that the benchmark rate should remain at 3.75% to 4% (the level prior to the December meeting) by the end of this year. The Minutes revealed that some officials believe “it may be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for some time after lowering the rate range at this meeting.” This aligns with the aforementioned forecasts. Although the median of the officials' rate forecasts released after the meeting points to a 25 basis point cut in 2026, the individual forecasts vary widely. Investors expect at least two rate cuts in the coming year. ## Deep Divisions The Minutes pointed out that **there is considerable disagreement among policymakers about whether inflation or unemployment poses a greater threat to the U.S. economy.** The Minutes noted: “Most participants indicated that moving toward a more neutral policy stance would help prevent a severe deterioration in labor market conditions.” However, the Minutes also continued to state: “Several participants pointed to the risk of high inflation becoming entrenched and suggested that further lowering the policy rate in the context of high inflation readings could be misinterpreted as a weakening of policymakers' commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target Powell stated to reporters after the meeting that the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to a level sufficient to prevent a more severe deterioration in the labor market, while the interest rate level remains high enough to continue suppressing inflation. Due to the government shutdown lasting throughout October and nearly half of November, officials lack the usual level of economic data. However, policymakers noted that new data may provide them with assistance in the coming weeks. The minutes state: "Some participants who favored or could have supported maintaining the target interest rate range believed that the large amount of labor market and inflation data to be obtained during the upcoming intermeeting period would help assess the appropriateness of a rate cut." Since the meeting, newly released data has done little to resolve the divisions within the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate in November rose to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, while consumer price increases were lower than expected. Both pieces of data provide support for those advocating for a rate cut. However, the annualized economic growth rate for the third quarter was 4.3%, the fastest growth in two years, which may fuel concerns about inflation among those opposing a rate cut in December ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Culpeo Minerals Sets May 7 AGM and Urges Early Proxy Voting](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281449270.md) - [MEKO calls 2026 AGM with in-person and postal voting options](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281364262.md) - [Race among central banks to begin monetary easing cycle](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281603894.md) - [D P Wires Details Conduct of Extraordinary General Meeting and E-Voting Process](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281264088.md) - [Bank of Iwate Unveils Inflation-Era Medium-Term Plan With Higher Profit and ROE Targets](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280958985.md)