--- title: "2025 Magical Finale: Gold Soars 65%, Dollar Bows Down, Trump Returns to Stir the World" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271254903.md" description: "The market landscape in 2025 changes due to Trump's return to the center of power. Global stock markets recover, with an annual increase of 21%. Gold rises nearly 65%, and the dollar index falls by nearly 10%. Factors such as debt, trade wars, and geopolitics lead to asset volatility. Under Trump's policies, European defense companies' stock prices soar by 56%, and the South Korean composite index rises by 75%. Silver and platinum increase by 145% and 125%, respectively" datetime: "2026-01-01T00:55:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271254903.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271254903.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271254903.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271254903.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271254903.md) # 2025 Magical Finale: Gold Soars 65%, Dollar Bows Down, Trump Returns to Stir the World According to Zhitong Finance APP, although most investors have long anticipated that with Trump's return to the power center of the world's largest economy, the market landscape in 2025 will undoubtedly be different, few could have predicted the twists and turns of this market and the final outcome. Global stock markets have strongly rebounded from the sharp decline triggered by the tariff policy on "Liberation Day" in April, with a full-year increase of 21% in 2025, achieving double-digit growth for the sixth time in the past seven years. However, looking at other asset classes, there are many surprises. Gold, the recognized safe haven in turbulent times, has had its best year since the 1979 oil crisis, with an annual increase approaching 65%; in contrast, the US dollar index has fallen nearly 10%, crude oil prices have dropped about 18%, while the riskiest junk bonds in the bond market have surged dramatically. Since artificial intelligence (AI) leader Nvidia (NVDA.US) became the world's first company with a market value exceeding $5 trillion in October, the halo of the "seven giants" in the US seems to have faded, and Bitcoin's market value has suddenly evaporated by one-third. Bill Campbell, a fund manager at DoubleLine Capital, describes 2025 as "a year of transformation and surprises." He points out that the significant fluctuations in various assets are closely intertwined with three disruptive issues: the trade war, geopolitical tensions, and debt problems. Campbell stated, "If someone had told me in advance that Trump would return to the White House and implement aggressive trade policies at the current pace, I would never have expected valuations to be as strong or high as they are today." ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260101/1767228130899499.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Affected by Trump's policies, European defense companies' stock prices surged 56% throughout the year. Prior signals indicated that the Trump administration would reduce military protection for Europe, forcing European countries and other NATO members to accelerate military expansion. This trend also propelled European bank stocks to achieve their best annual performance since 1997; the South Korean composite index rose by as much as 75%, and the return on Venezuelan defaulted bonds approached 100%; silver and platinum saw even more impressive increases, soaring 145% and 125%, respectively. The Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts this year, Trump's public criticism of the Fed, and the global wave of debt concerns have collectively impacted the bond market. The "big and beautiful" spending plan introduced by the Trump administration once pushed the yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds to exceed 5.1% in May, reaching the highest level since 2007. Although the current yield has fallen to 4.8%, the "term premium"—the widening spread between long-term and short-term interest rates—has once again triggered market panic. The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds has also climbed to a historic high. Ironically, while global bond market volatility is at a four-year low, local currency-denominated emerging market bonds have had their best year since 2009 Companies are borrowing heavily to lay out their AI strategies, making AI an important factor influencing the debt market. Goldman Sachs estimates that large AI "super-scale enterprises" will invest nearly $400 billion in 2025, and this figure is expected to rise to $530 billion in 2026. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260101/1767228170696330.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) **Not only gold shines brightly** The weakening dollar has driven the euro to a nearly 14% increase in 2025, while the Swiss franc has risen by 14.5%; although the yen suffered a sharp decline in December, its exchange rate ultimately remained flat for the year. The interaction between Trump and Russian President Putin has led to a 40% surge in the Russian ruble's exchange rate. However, the ruble is still constrained by severe sanctions, and its title as the best-performing currency of the year was ultimately taken by the Ghanaian cedi, which saw an annual increase of 41%. The Polish zloty, Czech koruna, and Hungarian forint saw increases between 15% and 21%; in May, the New Taiwan dollar surged 8% against the dollar in just two days; the Mexican peso and Brazilian real ignored the trade war turmoil, both achieving double-digit increases. Jonny Goulden, head of emerging market fixed income strategy research at JP Morgan, stated: "We believe this is by no means a short-term phenomenon. The 14-year bear market for emerging market currencies has now clearly bottomed out." The Argentine market also performed impressively. In September, Argentine President Javier Milei suffered a crushing defeat in local elections, leading to a sharp decline in the market; however, weeks later, the Trump administration promised $20 billion in aid, helping Milei achieve a landslide victory in the national midterm elections, and the Argentine market subsequently surged. The cryptocurrency sector has also seen significant fluctuations. Trump launched his own meme coin and pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao in his presidential capacity. Bitcoin's price briefly surpassed $125,000 in October, setting a new historical high, but then plummeted below $88,000, with an annual cumulative decline of over 6%. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260101/1767228182583083.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) **New Year, New Concerns** The market's opening in 2026 is destined to be anything but calm. Trump is actively campaigning for the midterm elections in November and is expected to soon nominate a new chair for the Federal Reserve—this appointment is crucial for the Fed's independence. Israel plans to hold parliamentary elections by the end of October, and the fragile ceasefire in the Gaza Strip will continue to be a market focus; the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains fraught with difficulties; Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will face the most severe electoral test since taking office in April; Colombia and Brazil will also hold key elections in May and October, respectively In addition, there are still many unknown variables in the AI field. Matt King, founder of Satori Insights, pointed out that from a valuation perspective, the market is entering 2026 in an "unusual" state; meanwhile, political leaders like Trump are "looking for excuses" to try to benefit voters through economic stimulus or tax reduction policies. Matt King stated, "The effects of loose monetary policy are being pushed to the limit, and this risk persists." "From the rise in term premiums in the bond market, to the sudden plunge of Bitcoin, and the continuation of gold's upward trend, cracks have already appeared in the market's margins." ### 相關股票 - [Trump Media & Tech (DJT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DJT.US.md) - [Trump Media & Tech - CW28 (DJTWW.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DJTWW.US.md) - [FL2CSOPGOLD (07299.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/07299.HK.md) - [SPDR Gold Shares (GLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GLD.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Trump: The biggest bridge comes tumbling down. It is time for Iran to make a deal](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281556399.md) - [Trump Reacts To Supreme Court Birthright Citizenship Hearing The Only Way He Knows How — By Lying](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281425007.md) - [We’re on the cusp of something this country has never seen, Trump said. Here’s how to gear up for the golden age of America](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281680416.md) - [Gold Hunter shifts from quiet buildup to fully funded drilling push at Newfoundland gold district](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281261616.md) - [Leo, the first US pope, emerges as pointed Trump critic](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281513774.md)