聯合預算：市場預期税收改革；繼續關注電池儲存、電網擴展和綠色能源

In the upcoming Union Budget, markets expect continuity via schemes such as PM Surya Ghar rooftop solar, Green Energy Corridor, RDSS for discoms, SMR nuclear mission and pumped storage support. Focus is also expected to remain on renewables, grid expansion and storage, with limited new allocations or near-term market impact.

While the Budget is unlikely to act as a near-term trigger for stocks, it should reinforce the long-term direction for nuclear power, renewables, storage and transmission.

Key Trends

· Renewables remain central, driven by solar and rooftop capacity additions

· Nuclear power gains importance with private participation and small modular reactors

· Energy storage (battery and pumped hydro) emerges as a priority

· Transmission expansion continues to support renewable evacuation

Key Challenges

· High capital costs and long gestation for nuclear and storage projects

· Transmission bottlenecks in renewable-rich states

· Ongoing financial stress at distribution companies

Last Budget Highlights

· Amendments enabling private participation in nuclear power

· Dedicated mission for small modular reactors

· Pumped storage hydro under regulated cost-plus framework

· Continued support for distribution reforms and smart metering

· Focus on solar power

Industry Expectations This Budget

· Tax and financing incentives for nuclear projects

· Higher allocation for rooftop solar

· Policy support for battery storage and pumped hydro

· Continued funding for transmission and green corridors

· Sustained focus on discom reforms

According to Ashwin Jacob, Partner, Deloitte India, the industry is also seeking targeted tax and GST reforms to improve project viability. These include group tax consolidation for renewable companies, direct tax incentives for nuclear start-ups, accelerated depreciation and R&D credits, GST rationalisation and tax benefits for battery energy storage systems, and lower GST on renewable components.

Mirae Asset Sharekhan's Ankit Soni expects that the focus is likely to be on stabilising the power sector, with emphasis on grid expansion, transmission, energy storage, and modernisation. On the generation side, incremental focus will largely be limited to rooftop solar.

"Large budget increases are unlikely. For example, KUSUM, which supports rooftop solar, did not see a major hike last year, with emphasis on scaling installations. While rooftop solar continues to show strong growth, part of this is due to a low base and sustained policy support. The rooftop solar scheme received around Rs 20,000 crore in the previous budget. This allocation is expected to continue with only a modest increase, while MNRE allocations are likely to remain broadly stable," he said.

He added that for the current budget, power sector allocation is expected at Rs 45,000–60,000 crore, focused mainly on battery energy storage, with limited renewable additions and continued emphasis on hydro, SMRs, and green energy.

From a budgetary perspective, Elara Securities Rupesh Sankhe expects to see focus on pure-play renewable and nuclear-focused companies could benefit more. "HVDC transmission companies should also see strong demand and better asset utilisation, while financing entities like REC and PFC could benefit from higher funding requirements," he said.

Sector Outlook

The outlook remains measured. Experts believe that the Budget is unlikely to be a near-term catalyst, given long execution timelines for nuclear and storage projects. "The market typically does not react sharply to Budget announcements, as most measures are long-term in nature. Nuclear and hydro projects take 5–7 years to materialise, so these announcements provide direction rather than immediate gains. Only meaningful positive surprises could drive near-term stock movement," according to Sankhe. Overall, experts believe that power demand remains strong, supporting FY26 growth. Regulated utilities, transmission firms and select generators offer better visibility, while names like JSW Energy, Adani Power and Torrent Power may see short-term trading interest despite rich valuations.

Stocks to watch: NTPC, PFC, REC, Torrent Power, Adani Power

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