--- title: "《大行》野村：人行政策舉措符預期 維持全年下調政策利率 10 點子及降準半厘預測" description: "野村報告指出，中國人民銀行近期公佈的政策措施符合預期，認為這是應對經濟動能惡化的正確做法。報告提到，央行副行長表示存款準備金率和利率仍有下調空間，人民幣匯率穩定。野村維持全年下調政策利率 10 個基點及降準 50 個基點的預測，預計將在第二季度實現。" type: "news" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/272795210.md" published_at: "2026-01-16T06:31:36.000Z" --- # 《大行》野村：人行政策舉措符預期 維持全年下調政策利率 10 點子及降準半厘預測 > 野村報告指出，中國人民銀行近期公佈的政策措施符合預期，認為這是應對經濟動能惡化的正確做法。報告提到，央行副行長表示存款準備金率和利率仍有下調空間，人民幣匯率穩定。野村維持全年下調政策利率 10 個基點及降準 50 個基點的預測，預計將在第二季度實現。 野村報告指，人行昨日 (15 日) 公佈一系列措施基本符合預期。該行認為，人行自去年 9 月以來，為免助長本已過熱股市，應避免減息降準等高調貨幣寬鬆措施，今次行動是應對內地經濟動能急速惡化的正確做法，亦顯示內地當局對增長態勢日益關注。國務院上週五 (9 日) 承諾降低消費者和企業融資成本，今次寬鬆措施或有助解決相關問題。 報告引述人行副行長鄒瀾表示，存款準備金率與利率仍有下調空間，又指人民幣匯率目前相對穩定，美元處減息週期，匯率不構成強大制約。該行認為，人行今次行動及副行長的言論，與該行對今年一次性下調政策利率及存款準備金率分別 10 個及 50 個基點的預測相符，基本情境預計於第二季實現。 ### Related Stocks - [YINN.US - 富時中國 3 倍做多 ETF - Direxion](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/YINN.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | ByteDance joins Chinese rivals offering freebies in bid to acquire AI app users | In a competitive giveaway battle among AI apps in China, ByteDance's Doubao chatbot is offering over 100,000 tech produc | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275531859.md) | | US expected to add Alibaba and other to list of firms allegedly aiding China's military, sources say | The Trump administration is set to add Alibaba and other companies to a list of firms allegedly supporting China's milit | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275904637.md) | | China Jan M1 money supply +4.9% y/y | China Jan M1 money supply +4.9% y/y | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275876240.md) | | One Year After DeepSeek's Breakthrough, Chinese AI Firms Gear Up to Launch Affordable Models | One year after DeepSeek's groundbreaking launch of a budget-friendly AI model, several Chinese tech firms, including Bai | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275741370.md) | | Alipay AI Payment Exceeds 120 Million Transactions in One Week as Agentic Commerce Accelerates in China | Alipay's AI Pay has surpassed 120 million transactions in one week, marking a significant milestone in agentic commerce | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275904280.md) | --- > **免責聲明**：本文內容僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議。