---
title: "Kalshi traders see a 42% chance of a Greenland deal before Trump’s term ends"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/272987754.md"
description: "Kalshi traders estimate a 42% chance of the U.S. acquiring part of Greenland by the end of President Trump's term in 2029, with current odds at 13% by May 2026 and 27% before 2027. The trading volume on Kalshi is over $3.6 million, while Polymarket shows a 21% probability with a volume of $13.8 million. This interest is fueled by Greenland's strategic value amid changing geopolitical dynamics, as Trump threatens tariffs on countries opposing the acquisition."
datetime: "2026-01-19T15:37:04.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/272987754.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/272987754.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/272987754.md)
---

> 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/272987754.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/272987754.md)


# Kalshi traders see a 42% chance of a Greenland deal before Trump’s term ends

Prediction markets are assigning rising odds to the idea that the United States could one day acquire part of Greenland, even as traders remain skeptical that anything happens in the near term.

Kalshi traders put the odds at 13% by May 2026, rising to 27% before 2027 and 42% by the end of President Donald Trump's term in 2029.

The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, is a little more than $3.6 million.

**WHY TRUMP ZEROED IN ON GREENLAND AND WHY IT MATTERS IN 3 MAPS**

Online prediction market Kalshi bet on whether the U.S. will acquire Greenland. (Kalshi)

Meanwhile, Polymarket prices a 21% probability of an acquisition before year’s end. The trading volume on Polymarket is a little north of $13.8 million.

Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet real money on everything from politics and economic policy to sports and pop culture, transforming public sentiment into tradable market odds.

**TRUMP THREATENS TARIFFS ON COUNTRIES OPPOSING GREENLAND TAKEOVER PLANS**

Online prediction market Polymarket showing bets on whether the U.S. will acquire Greenland. (Polymarket)

The latest revelation comes as Trump zeroes in on Greenland, the world’s largest island, whose strategic value has risen as melting ice opens new shipping lanes and access to natural resources.

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A view of a port in Nuuk, Greenland. (Julia Wäschenbach/picture alliance/Getty Images)

That changing landscape has also drawn interest from Russia and China, underscoring the geopolitical calculations behind Trump’s focus.

The European Union said Sunday it will hold an emergency meeting to coordinate a response after Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries that do not support a U.S. acquisition of Greenland.

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