--- title: "Earnings Preview | Meta's Q4 revenue may increase by 21%, but the cash burn from AI and the metaverse black hole remain a \"thorn in the heart\" for the market" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/273660594.md" description: "Meta Platforms expects revenue to grow by 21% in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching between $56 billion and $59 billion, exceeding market expectations. Earnings per share are expected to be $8.21. The company's total expenditures for the year are projected to be between $116 billion and $118 billion, with capital expenditures reaching between $70 billion and $72 billion. In the third quarter of 2025, Meta's revenue was $51.24 billion, exceeding expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $7.25" datetime: "2026-01-26T07:10:20.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/273660594.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/273660594.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/273660594.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/273660594.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/273660594.md) # Earnings Preview | Meta's Q4 revenue may increase by 21%, but the cash burn from AI and the metaverse black hole remain a "thorn in the heart" for the market According to Zhitong Finance APP, Meta Platforms (META.US) is scheduled to announce its Q4 2025 earnings after the market closes on January 28, 2026 (Wednesday). In its Q3 earnings report, Meta stated that it expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between $56 billion and $59 billion, with the consensus forecast from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) at $56.59 billion, which would represent a year-on-year growth of approximately 21%; earnings per share are projected to be $8.21. Additionally, the company indicated that it expects total expenditures for the full year 2025 to be between $116 billion and $118 billion, an upward adjustment from the previous estimate of $114 billion to $118 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22% to 24%. Of this, capital expenditures for 2025 (including principal payments on finance leases) are expected to be between $70 billion and $72 billion, higher than the previously estimated range of $66 billion to $72 billion. ## Highlights from the Previous Quarter In Q3 2025, Meta's revenue reached $51.24 billion, exceeding the expected $49.41 billion; adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $7.25, higher than the expected $6.67, with this adjustment excluding one-time non-cash tax expenses. It is important to note that due to the changes in the new U.S. tax law (the "Beautiful Law"), the non-recurring tax expense of $15.93 billion caused the earnings per share calculated under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) to drop significantly to $1.05. **The company reported the following operational highlights for Q3 2025:** Revenue: Reached $51.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26% Daily Active Users (DAU): Averaged 3.54 billion in September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8% Ad Impressions: Increased by 14% year-on-year across its applications Average Price Per Ad: Increased by 10% year-on-year Number of Employees: 78,450 as of September 30, 2025, an 8% year-on-year increase ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260126/1769410544567182.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg emphasized the strong performance, stating, "Our business and community performed strongly this quarter. The Meta Super Smart Lab has had a good start, and we continue to lead the industry in the AI glasses space. If we can realize even a small portion of future opportunities, the next few years will be the most exciting period in the company's history." !\[image.png\](https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260126/1769410552363362.png? x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,q\_90) Despite solid underlying performance, driven by artificial intelligence (AI) user engagement, advertising efficiency, and user growth momentum, Meta's third-quarter report received mixed to even negative reviews. The next day, its stock price plummeted by 11.33%, closing at $666.47, primarily due to a one-time tax impact distorting Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) data, raising the full-year capital expenditure (capex) guidance to $70 billion to $72 billion (driven by AI infrastructure), and an expectation that expenses will grow faster to support ongoing AI investments by 2026. ## Challenges Facing Reality Labs Meta's third-quarter earnings report and conference call clearly highlighted the ongoing challenges faced by its Reality Labs division. The division reported an operating loss of $4.43 billion this quarter, consistent with previous quarters, with cumulative losses far exceeding $70 billion since 2021. Although revenue grew by 74% year-over-year to $470 million, thanks to pre-stocked Quest headsets and strong early demand for the augmented reality feature of the Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, management clearly stated that fourth-quarter revenue is expected to decline year-over-year. This adverse factor stems from the launch of Quest 3S in the same period last year and the absence of new virtual reality (VR) headsets in 2025. ## Key Areas of Focus In addition to overall revenue and earnings per share data, investors will focus on several key areas in Meta's fourth-quarter 2025 financial report. These areas continue the strong growth momentum of the advertising business from the third quarter while facing challenges from the company's large-scale AI infrastructure buildout and the ongoing issues within the Reality Labs division. **Advertising Performance** Advertising remains the core engine, with the family of apps' advertising revenue soaring by 26% year-over-year to approximately $50.1 billion in the third quarter. The market will closely monitor the continued growth momentum in the fourth quarter, especially with the holiday season's boost and the enhanced role of AI in ad targeting, ranking, and conversion. **User Engagement Metrics** In the third quarter, the average daily active users (DAP) reached 3.54 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, driven by strong performance in video services (especially Reels) and robust growth in non-video services. Investors will be looking for further increases in user engagement time, particularly in the U.S., where Facebook and Instagram saw double-digit growth in usage time, along with the latest developments on how AI-driven recommendation features continue to enhance user engagement across applications. **Integration and Impact of AI** Today, AI is at the core, with Meta's superintelligent lab off to a good start, focusing on next-generation models, computing infrastructure, and multimodal capabilities—including using augmented reality (AR) glasses as data collection tools The market will seek concrete evidence to prove its progress in monetization, such as whether artificial intelligence can enhance advertising effectiveness, user retention rates, and features like Reels viewing duration, while also assessing whether these investments can translate into measurable return on investment (ROI) under aggressive spending growth. **Expenses, Capital Expenditures, and Profitability** Meta has raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance for 2025 to between $70 billion and $72 billion (up from the previous expected range), primarily driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure (data centers, hardware, and cloud services). The fourth quarter will closely monitor any clues regarding spending in 2026, as management has indicated that its dollar growth will be "significantly larger," while total spending for 2025 is expected to be between $116 billion and $118 billion (a year-on-year increase of 22% to 24%). **Reality Labs Performance** As mentioned above, this division is still in a cash-burning phase. The performance guidance has indicated that fourth-quarter revenue will decline year-on-year (due to the comparative effect of the Quest 3S release and changes in holiday stocking times), so losses are expected to be disclosed, along with progress on AR glasses (strong early sales) and any strategic adjustments or budget changes for 2026, as artificial intelligence is gradually becoming a priority, while pure metaverse bets are taking a back seat. **Forward Guidance** Beyond specific data, what will truly impact the market is the latest outlook for 2026, covering revenue trends, expense growth rates, capital expenditure trajectories, signals of artificial intelligence ROI, and any changes in the Reality Labs strategy. Given the market's general expectation of robust growth, any unexpected developments regarding spending intensity or artificial intelligence returns could trigger market volatility. ## Meta Technical Analysis As of January 20, 2026, Meta's TipRanks smart score is 8 ("Outperform"), with analysts rating it as a "Strong Buy," including 37 "Buy," 6 "Hold," and 1 "Sell" recommendations. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260126/1769410566593392.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) As of the close of 2025, Meta's stock price increased by 12.74%, ultimately closing at $660.09. This performance is slightly inferior to the Nasdaq 100 index, which achieved a total return of 21% for the year. Throughout the year, technology stocks experienced significant volatility, and Meta was no exception. Its stock price fell to a low of $479.80 in April last year, followed by a strong rebound, rising over 67% to reach an all-time high of $796.25 in August last year Since reaching its peak, Meta has faced ongoing pressure, with its stock price declining in four of the past five months. This pullback has brought the stock price back near a key long-term upward trend support area, located around $595, supported by a trendline extending from the October 2022 low of $88.09 and reinforced by the November 2025 low of $581.25. Meta needs to maintain its position above the support level of $595 to $580 to sustain its multi-year bullish trend and open the door for a potential rebound to the historical high of $796.25. However, a decisive break below this support range could trigger a deeper pullback, initially targeting the low of $479.80, followed by the approximately $415 200-week moving average. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260126/1769410586346470.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ### 相關股票 - [Direxion Daily META Bear 1X Shares (METD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/METD.US.md) - [Global X Data Center & Dgtl Infrs ETF (DTCR.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DTCR.US.md) - [Direxion Daily Meta Bull 2x Shares (METU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/METU.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Long META Daily ETF (FBL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/FBL.US.md) - [Roundhill META WeeklyPay ETF (METW.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/METW.US.md) - [Fidelity MSCI Telco Svc Index (FCOM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/FCOM.US.md) - [First Trust DJ Internet Fd (FDN.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/FDN.US.md) - [Proshares Big Data Refiners ETF (DAT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DAT.US.md) - [Global X Cloud Computing ETF (CLOU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CLOU.US.md) - [VGtelecomm (VOX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VOX.US.md) - [iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IGV.US.md) - [iShares US Digital Infrastructure and Real Estate ETF (IDGT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IDGT.US.md) - [Comm Servcies Select Sector SPDR (XLC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLC.US.md) - [Franklin Exponential Data ETF (XDAT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XDAT.US.md) - [iShares MSCI World Small-Cap ETF (WSML.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/WSML.US.md) - [Meta Platforms (META.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/META.US.md) - [Pacer Data & Infrastructure Real Estate ETF (SRVR.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SRVR.US.md) - [ISHRS S&P Glb Telco (IXP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IXP.US.md) - [SPDR S&P Software (XSW.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XSW.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Meta integrated ai into the core of its risk review program - website](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281190495.md) - [Meta Superintelligence Labs is quietly building a hardware team](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281657591.md) - [Meta Introducing Our First Ai Glasses Built For Prescriptions](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281195955.md) - [Tech Wrap March 30: OPPO Find X9 Ultra, WhatsApp on CarPlay, Blaupunkt](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281041030.md) - [China Vows to Support Cross-Border Deals Following Meta's Manus Buyout](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281606199.md)