--- title: "Morgan Stanley's outlook on Apple's Q1 earnings report: Short-term pressure, waiting for intensive catalysts in the second half of the fiscal year" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/273833146.md" description: "Morgan Stanley released a preview of Apple's first-quarter financial report, believing that Apple's fundamentals are under pressure in the short term and maintaining a cautious attitude. However, there are multiple catalysts in the second half of the fiscal year, maintaining an \"Overweight\" rating with a target price of $315. It is expected that demand for the iPhone 17 will be strong, and revenue is likely to exceed expectations, but memory cost pressures may limit the upward revision space for EPS. Morgan Stanley expects the stock price to fluctuate sideways or decline slightly after the earnings report, as the market has not fully recognized the performance of the iPhone 17 and there are risks of EPS downside. In the long term, Apple is expected to outperform the market in 2026, with multiple catalysts in the second half of the fiscal year" datetime: "2026-01-27T11:13:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/273833146.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/273833146.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/273833146.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/273833146.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/273833146.md) # Morgan Stanley's outlook on Apple's Q1 earnings report: Short-term pressure, waiting for intensive catalysts in the second half of the fiscal year According to Zhitong Finance APP, Morgan Stanley recently released a preview report on Apple's (AAPL.US) first-quarter earnings. The firm believes that Apple's fundamentals may be under pressure in the short term, thus adopting a cautious stance. However, due to multiple catalysts in the second half of the fiscal year, it maintains an "overweight" rating with a target price of $315. The strong demand for iPhone 17 suggests that Apple's revenue is likely to exceed expectations or raise guidance. However, pressure from memory costs and market misjudgment of operating expenses (opex) may limit the positive revision space for earnings per share (EPS), making it difficult for the stock to gain buying support during the earnings release period, despite its attractive valuation and the concentration of catalysts in the second half of the year. Morgan Stanley expects Apple's stock price to trade sideways or decline slightly after the earnings report is released on Thursday, as the market has not fully recognized the strong performance of the iPhone 17 (the firm's forecast for iPhone revenue in the December/March quarters is 4%-8% higher than market consensus). Several factors need to be considered at this time: on one hand, the market's forecast for operating expenses in the March quarter is 7% lower than Morgan Stanley's, and the firm's forecast for gross margin in the March quarter is 30 basis points lower than the market. Even if revenue exceeds expectations, this may limit the positive revision of EPS. Additionally, given the ongoing pressure from memory costs, and the market has not fully incorporated this factor, the firm believes there is a downside risk to the market's forecast for June quarter EPS (Morgan Stanley predicts $1.62 vs. market consensus of $1.71). Finally, the firm noted that seasonally, Apple's stock price performance in the first quarter has historically lagged behind the S&P 500 index more than in any other quarter, with a median gap of 400 basis points. These factors have led the firm to adopt a tactically cautious stance ahead of the earnings release. Nevertheless, looking at the long term, the firm still believes that Apple will outperform the market by 2026, with multiple catalysts expected in the second half of the fiscal year: the reboot of Siri, the launch of a foldable iPhone, and the release of the 2-nanometer process iPhone 18 will all drive better performance in the second half, aligning with historical seasonal patterns of quarterly outperformance. With favorable factors on the horizon, Apple may restart the upgraded Siri function in February and fully upgrade the Apple Intelligence platform at WWDC 2026 in June, while also launching the foldable iPhone and the first 2-nanometer process smartphone (iPhone 18 series). At the same time, the current iPhone replacement cycle remains high at 4.7 years, coupled with an expected $100 price increase for the iPhone 18 series with the same configuration, which will support EPS reaching $9.77 for the 2027 fiscal year, 7% higher than market consensus, maintaining a 12% EPS growth rate through the 2028 fiscal year. Moreover, the current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times the firm's EPS for the 2027 fiscal year, only 1.2 times the valuation multiple of the S&P 500 index, which is close to historical lows in both absolute and relative valuation. With EPS growth still expected to maintain at 12% through the 2028 fiscal year, the firm believes there is positive asymmetric space in valuation. Therefore, despite a cautious stance due to cost pressures in the short term, the firm still believes that Apple will benefit from strong seasonal performance in the second half of the year, thus maintaining an "overweight" rating on Apple stock with a target price unchanged at $315 Apple is experiencing one of the strongest iPhone product cycles in history, with capacity data and component supplier surveys supporting the bank's expectations for iPhone sales that are above market consensus. Overall, the bank's supply chain research indicates that shipments of the iPhone 17 in the December and March quarters will exceed current market consensus. The following points support the bank's view: (1) Recent surveys of component suppliers show that iPhone production capacity in the December quarter is extremely strong—approaching 90 million units in some cases—while the bank's forecast for shipments is 83 million units. The bank has not fully incorporated this capacity increase into its forecast, as it believes Apple is preemptively purchasing excess components in anticipation of potential supply tightness in the future, but this still suggests that the bank's forecast for iPhone shipments in the December quarter may be conservative; (2) Apple added 3-nanometer wafer orders to TSMC in October-November 2025, equivalent to about 6 million additional iPhone units of capacity, which provides room for upward revisions to market forecasts for iPhone shipments in the March and June quarters. This has already been included in the bank's Greater China technology hardware team's above-seasonal forecast for iPhone capacity in the March quarter (56 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% or a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26%, while the historical seasonal quarter-on-quarter decline is 32%), indicating that iPhone shipments in the March quarter will reach 60 million units, exceeding the market consensus of 54 million units; (3) Despite the later Chinese New Year this year (delayed by 2.5 weeks), which resulted in a higher year-on-year base, iPhone sales in the Chinese market have still achieved a strong year-on-year growth of 5%-10% from January to date, with December shipments showing a year-on-year increase of over 20%. All of this data convinces the bank that market forecasts for iPhone shipments remain too low. The bank's forecast for iPhone revenue in the December quarter is $80 billion (83 million units shipped), which is 4% higher than market consensus; the forecast for iPhone revenue in the March quarter is $55.4 billion (60 million units shipped), which is 8% higher than market consensus. For the full fiscal year 2026, the bank's forecast for iPhone shipments is 260 million units, which is 14 million units (or 6%) higher than market consensus, reflecting the strong performance of the iPhone 17 product cycle and adjustments to the release schedule of the iPhone 18 in the second half of 2026. The report emphasizes that the earnings call should focus on five key points: guidance on the impact of memory costs on subsequent quarters, sustainability of AI-related operating expenses, disclosure of new device installation bases, commercialization plans for the Gemini partnership, and resilience of demand in the Chinese market. In summary, despite short-term cost uncertainties, the dense catalysts and valuation safety margins in the second half of the year will support Apple's long-term outperformance, and the current period remains a window for long-term investors to position themselves ### 相關股票 - [T-Rex 2X Long Apple Daily Target ETF (AAPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AAPX.US.md) - [Apple (AAPL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AAPL.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Long AAPL Daily ETF (AAPB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AAPB.US.md) - [Direxion Daily AAPL Bull 2X Shares (AAPU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AAPU.US.md) - [Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1x Shares (AAPD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AAPD.US.md) - [Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Apple Aapl ETF (AAPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AAPY.US.md) - [YieldMax AAPL Option Income Strategy ETF (APLY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/APLY.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Apple Intelligence briefly appears in Chinese mainland before withdrawal](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281116116.md) - [Apple Is Getting Ready for One of Its ‘Most Lucrative Product Rollouts Ever.’ Should You Buy AAPL Stock First?](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281358481.md) - [Baker Tilly Wealth Management LLC Has $7.69 Million Stock Holdings in Apple Inc. $AAPL](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280900022.md) - [Apple Stock (AAPL) Gets a Rare 'Sell' Rating from 5-Star Barclays Analyst, Says 'iPhone Unit Trends Remain Soft' & 'Valuation Remains at the High End'](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281186505.md) - [iPhone Maker Apple Celebrates Its 50th Anniversary](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281373049.md)